Sunday 1st February 2026

All pretty unremarkable weather, lots of cloud, some rain, some sunshine – roughly normal temperatures but occasionally a bit colder.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general set-up remains much the same, a large block of high pressure over much of eastern Europe and Russia – which means the jetstream has to go further south through the Mediterranean, and most of the rain hence is towards Spain/Portugal, etc – though we remain on the northern edge of large and complex low pressure systems.

This pattern is going to take some shifting.

Daytime maximum temperatures where the high pressure block is today would be -5’C for Berlin or -15’C for Kyiv. And some high rainfall totals expected across Mediterranean countries – especially western Portugal. Not exactly dry here, but all very ordinary.

Sunday will be cloudy with outbreaks of often light/moderate rain at first, though becoming more persistent and somewhat heavier later in the afternoon/early evening. Around 8’C. The rain gradually clearing east this evening, remaining cloudy with the odd light shower still around overnight – down to around 5’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy. Some bits of light showery rain possible at times, some brightness also possible – the latter more likely later in the afternoon. Around 8’C, a bit breezier. Cloudy overnight with showery rain arriving by late evening and continuing overnight – around 5’C and breezy.

Tuesday will be cloudy with rain on and off all day. Tending to be light/moderate earlier in the day and more patchy – suggestions that it will be somewhat heavier and more persistent as the afternoon goes on. Picking up a south-easterly wind so feeling a bit colder, around 6’C. The rain gradually moves north overnight, though continues for a fair while – some clear spells possible before dawn. Around 6’C.

Wednesday should be a reasonable day, some cloud around but also some spells of sunshine, and milder in a southerly breeze – around 10’C or so. Some clear spells, some cloud overnight – down to around 4’C, give or take.

By Thursday we see the next large low pressure system heading towards us.

Details a bit sketchier by this point, but more likely dry or mostly dry, more likely on the cloudier side of things, and roughly around 8’C – breezy too. Perhaps some rain overnight.

Friday probably sees some rain around at times, perhaps somewhat colder again though some uncertainty over where the boundary between colder and milder air will be.

Next weekend likely sees rain at some points but also there will be some dry spells too – probably nothing too wet, but low confidence. Most likely a little milder than average, say 10’C – but there is a small chance of it being colder, say around 5’C.

Perhaps something colder and drier the week after – overnight frosts possible and perhaps wintry showery, though low confidence on this.

Higher confidence on it being broadly wetter, windier and milder than normal for the second half of February…assuming no game-changing event such as a sudden stratospheric warming event.

That said, a sudden stratospheric warming event does look more likely than not for mid-February. Too early to know what impact it could have on our weather down here in the troposphere…but impacts would be possible by late February/early March.

Have a pleasant Sunday.