Weather Forecast For Reading & Berkshire

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  Summer Weather Forecast 2026

  Hello and welcome to my Summer Weather Forecast 2026, aimed at Reading & Berkshire, though realistic could apply to much of southern/central England, as it will be fairly broad-brush.

  Usual caveats, seasonal forecasting is experimental – my hope is always to get more right than wrong, but even that is not always the case.

  Whilst you can (and I do) make an argument for the most likely weather patterns, events will at times skew this – all it needs is a hurricane in the Atlantic, or typhoon in the Pacific, to change the track of the jetstream and the forecast can go to pot, at least temporarily. Amongst other possible events.

  I don’t think my spring forecast was too bad, for example May I said would see wetter conditions earlier and drier, sunnier conditions later – whilst I didn’t see record-breaking temperatures 3 months in advance (which is impossible), I was very confident on warmer than normal temperatures. My April record was not so great, March reasonable.

  Thanks to Andy for the photograph, and all those that sent them in for this forecast, and the others. My forecasts would be far more boring without them.

  Background Signals

  Background signals tend to have less impact in summer, but the one that people will be talking about over the coming year is El Niño and the potential for a “Super Niño”.

  El Niño’s influence on weather patterns around the Pacific countries is definite and somewhat predictable – on our weather is more limited and also less predictable. It’s sometimes easy to say “x happened because of El Niño” in the UK, not so easy to say something will happen in the UK because of El Niño, as the other usual background signals are in play also.

  Anyway, it is just developing, so any impact would have a lag and there isn’t likely to be a case of saying “summer was x because of El Niño” in a few months time, although I’m sure the usual suspects in the media will attempt to.

  What impact it will have for the globe, is an increase in global temperatures – so we’ll probably see 2027 as the hottest year on record, and statistically that means our little corner of the globe may well follow.

  I’m sympathetic to the argument that the chance of unsettled weather in autumn, and a warmer more westerly-driven winter (not necessarily unsettled, could well be cloudy and dry) are slightly more likely under El Niño.

  And despite the above, there are also analogues (previous years with El Niño developing at this time of year) that suggests more westerly flows, especially in June – ie greater chances of showers/rain. I remain on the fence about those.

  June

  So we are a week into June when writing this, alas, due to my holiday and needing to catch up with life last weekend.

  Anyway, I’d long signalled an unsettled start to June, and though I thought it would be starting to settle down by now, the cool and showery conditions will last at least a few more days.

  By around the second Friday/Saturday of June, we should see high pressure build from the south-west – and generally dry, sunny and very warm weather dominates, though maybe not perfectly every day.

  Shortly after there is a good chance of further hot/very hot weather – if this happens, I wouldn’t be surprised if the June record of 35.6’C was broken somewhere in the UK.

  Towards the end of the month, we may see less hot conditions, either from weather fronts trying to nudge in from the west bringing cloud and a little rain – or more likely thundery lows developing to the south and spreading north, with high humidity if so.

  Overall, despite the cool start to the month, I expect above-average temperatures, around average sunshine amounts and slightly above-average rainfall.

  Confidence level around 70%.

  July

  July looks pretty mixed, though that likely includes some heatwaves and downpours. My guess is that it starts very warm but without any excessive heat.

  There is a signal for lower pressure to be to our south west, which will drive hot weather for much of continental Europe and at times the UK, so we’ll sometimes (maybe often) see hot/very hot weather, but also at times see thundery lows spreading up from the south-west to break down heatwaves, and they’d then cool things down for a few days, with initial downpours turning into a few cloudier/showery days.

  Before the heat returns.

  There isn’t particularly a signal for any part of the month to be hotter/wetter, etc, more a repeated pattern of hot weather, followed by downpours, followed by cooler, cloudier showery weather – and repeat the pattern.

  Overall I expect above-average temperatures, around or slightly-above average sunshine amounts, and at least slightly-above average rainfall (depending on whether you catch some notable downpours).

  Confidence level around 50% – I do think there is a plausible chance that high pressure is centred further west and we have fewer breakdowns and less tendency for very hot conditions instead (still very warm/hot), but I’ve given my view on the more likely outcome above.

  August

  For August, I expect a bit more influence from high pressure to our east, so tending to be longer dry/sunny spells – especially earlier in the month, and again later in the month.

  Definitely the chance of some unsettled weather at times – generally from breakdowns of hot weather in a similar fashion to August, and some occasional heavy showers on hot days.

  Probably it is often very warm/hot.

  Overall I expect above-average temperatures, at least slightly above-average sunshine amounts, and around average rainfall.

  Confidence level around 50% – hurricane season can have some impact on the jetstream by this point so my confidence level is never that high for August.

  Summary & Autumn Thoughts

  So, potentially scorchio quite often but not a dry summer either.

  Remember this is my reading from long-range models and extrapolating from recent conditions/years and general patterns – so it may or may not work out like this. But it would be a surprise if it was not a hotter summer than normal, and there were no further significant heatwaves. A real surprise.

  Early thoughts on autumn are for an often pleasant September and an unsettled October/November, being the currently more likely outcomes.

  Wishing you all a super summer…and hope you can cope with the almost-inevitable heatwaves. Do feel free to share.

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• Summer Forecast Photograph Request

  You might not believe it if looking out of the window today, but it’s time to do my summer forecast – and I need a photograph.

  Please.

  Usual rules:

  1. Must feature summer weather of some description – there is more than one type of summer weather, I try to use what matches the forecast.
  2. Must be the local area.
  3. Can be from any year…as long as it is summer and has weather.
  4. Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this when posting on Facebook, which is totally fine, crack on. But I’m not going to use it unless it is landscape-orientated.

  Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

  My life is easier if you add them to the Facebook post but you can also e-mail them.

  I hope to write it tomorrow morning.

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  Thursday 4th June 2026

  Staying fairly unsettled and often on the cool side of things – though a couple of pleasant days mixed in.

  Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

  So the general picture sees low pressure centred over Scotland and a westerly flow – with further areas of low pressure developing to our west and heading in. You could almost call it autumnal.

  

  Today will see lots of cloud and lots of heavy showers, perhaps some thunder mixed in too – though not quite as potent as some of those on Tuesday gone. A bit of sunshine at times, quite windy and around 18’C. Showers will fade this evening, a mixture of cloud and clear spells follows – down to around 10’C.

  Friday is a brighter day, with reasonable sunny spells though also quite a bit of cloud around. Some showers possible, though on the lighter side of the spectrum – and much fewer than on Thursday. Feeling cooler and still breezy, around 17’C. Cloud thickening in the evening with outbreaks of rain from roughly around midnight. Down to around 11’C.

  Saturday is a mostly cloudy day with showery rain – not always raining, some brightness mixed in too. Tending to be more rain in the morning than afternoon, but not an exact science there. Around 17’C and breezy, perhaps notably windy later in the afternoon. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

  The wind direction changes on Sunday and we’ll briefly tap into warmer air again. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts – more likely rather cloudy but bright, but perhaps cloud thins enough for more in the way of hazy sunshine. Temperatures more likely around 20’C – but if cloud breaks more then it could be warmer. Still quite windy. Cloud thickening overnight – some rain possible by dawn, around 13’C.

  By Monday we see low pressure still close by (ish) towards Iceland – close enough to control our weather.

  

  Uncertain on timings but broadly speaking a cloudy day with rain crossing. Warmer air still around – so reaching around 18’C and quite windy still. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 8’C.

  Tuesday is back to sunny spells and showers – temperatures around 17’C.

  More showers or possibly a spell of general rain for Wednesday is the more likely outcome.

  Where do we go from there? Well, this short unsettled spell which was well signposted (as was the end of May’s hot spell, though not to that extreme) for the beginning of June is starting to look a bit less short than expected.

  There are both signs of high pressure building from the south-west with some very warm weather trying to spread up, but also further deep areas of low pressure (at least for the time of year) heading across from the west – so my best guess for late next week and into next weekend is broadly warmer, some sunny spells but also showers/rain on some days. Though it could just be warm/sunny or it could just be unsettled. Not really helpful is it?!

  There definitely is the potential for a hot spell during the second half of the month, say somewhere between 13th and 25th. Dry and sunny weather is broadly more likely from mid-month onwards, though probably not every day. Suggestions of something more unsettled towards the end of the month (though still probably very warm).

  I will try to get the summer forecast done in the next couple of days also.

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  Sunday 31st May 2026

  A fairly unsettled week ahead with rain/showers at times. Yep, summer officially starts and the summer-like weather disappears. Not for long though.

  Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

  The general set-up sees high pressure relaxing its control on our weather, with low pressure systems to the west moving in gradually.

  

  Sunday won’t be too bad – quite a lot of cloud around but some sunny breaks or at least some hazy sunshine at times. Perhaps a shower but should be innocuous if you do catch one. Still some warmth around, reaching around 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, and around 13’C.

  Monday starts bright with hazy sunshine. Gradually cloud amounts will increase from the west with rain arriving around late afternoon (though a shower before that is possible). Around 21’C and breezy. Showery rain this evening and overnight, quite heavy at times, perhaps occasionally very heavy. Around 13’C.

  Tuesday sees plenty of cloud and lots of heavy showers from the off, possibly very heavy/torrential, hail and thunder both very possible too. Some occasional sunny spells. Around 18’C. Showers fading in the evening, fairly clear skies overnight – down to around 13’C.

  Wednesday starts fairly cloudy but bright. Cloud will thicken from the west during the morning, with the odd spot of rain possible – more general showery rain from around lunchtime onwards, though often (not always) light/moderate. Around 17’C and quite windy. Most likely fairly cloudy overnight with the odd shower – though there is a small chance of a spell of heavy rain developing and heading our way overnight. Around 13’C or so.

  By Thursday the next low pressure system arrives and is bang in control.

  

  Another very showery day, lots of heavy showers, some could be very heavy, hail/thunder could be mixed in too. Some sunny spells in between. Windy, especially in showers and around 17’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight and cooler than it has been – down to around 8’C.

  A bit of an improvement for Friday as a ridge of high pressure tries to build, more in the way of sunny spells, some cloud at times – probably still some showers around. Around 17’C and likely still breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight – down to around 8’C.

  It’s a fairly close call for next weekend – high pressure should be building to our south-east and it should be close enough to keep weather fronts away from us in south-east England. Say around a 65/35 split in likelihoods.

  Assuming so, then Saturday will be a reasonably pleasant day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – temperatures recovering to around 19’C, maybe 20’C.

  Sunday then similar, but a tad warmer.

  The slightly less likely outcome would see more in the way of cloud and some rain at times – but nothing too wet, still some sunshine at times.

  For the week after, more likely high pressure is in control at least part of the time with some very warm sunshine – though whether it is back to a consistent settled spell or something more mixed with some sunny days, some showers days, is uncertain at present.

  I’m confident on temperatures being above-average for June, or even well above-average.

  Next full forecast will be on Thursday morning. Have a fun Sunday.

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