Monday 6th December 2021

Fairly cold and unsettled – with some strong winds on Tuesday from Storm Barra.

Thanks to Sara for the sunrise rainbow – quite unusual!

Clear skies tonight with a frost forming, down to around -1’C. Some high/medium level cloud by dawn as Storm Barra approaches.

Tuesday sees Storm Barra arrive – nothing too unusual but still rather potent.

It will start bright but cloud will thicken with rain from around 11am, there will be around 5 hours of persistent rain, some heavy – probably some brief very heavy rain towards the end of the band. Winds will be strong, and gusting close to 50mph for an hour or two towards the end of the rain band – enough for the odd fence panel to come down, that kind of thing. Around 8’C. Clear spells and lighter winds for a time in the evening, but the wind becoming strong again overnight, with a few showers too, down to around 5’C.

Wednesday sees Storm Barra stuck over the UK – unable to progress any further east due to the high pressure block over Scandinavia. Quite a lot of cloud, some showers at times, some sunny spells and windy too – though winds slowly easing as the system decays. 6’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some clear spells, chance of a shower, 5’C.

Thursday looks fairly cloudy – probably dry, some sunshine possible at times. Around 6’C. A band of showery rain crossing overnight, down to around 4’C in a north-westerly wind.

A bit of uncertainty as to how quickly the rain clears on Friday, the most likely outcome is that it will have cleared by dawn but there is a smallish chance that it hangs on for a bit. Sunny spells will follow, but feeling pretty cold in a north-westerly wind, around 5’C. Clear spells for a time in the evening/overnight – cloud thickening from the west as the night goes on. Around 0’C with a frost in places.

Saturday starts dry, probably bright. Another weather front will bring some rain in the afternoon – though timing and amounts uncertain. 6’C. Rain continuing in the evening and overnight – clearing at some unknown point. Likely milder overnight, say 10’C.

Sunday looks mild and probably rather cloudy, around 11’C.

Next week likely sees the jetstream head north as high pressure builds from the south/east.

Starting milder, some rain and wind possible at times though the bulk of the effects from low pressure systems will increasingly be over the north of the UK.

Generally lots of cloud around, mist/fog possible overnight especially from midweek onwards next week.

High pressure likely to dominate towards Christmas…and it should turn colder once more.…

Winter Forecast 2021/22

Welcome to my winter 2021/22 weather forecast for Reading and the surrounding areas.

This is going to be quite a long post…I guess I should pour myself a drink…it is nearly Christmas after all.

So let’s start with some admin as usual.

Firstly thanks to Grace for the superb photograph, and first clue to my expectations of the weather this winter. A £20 donation has been made to Blood Cancer UK.

Secondly thanks to everyone who sends in photographs more regularly, comments, shares, etc – you ensure there is still a point in me doing these forecasts.

Finally a reminder that seasonal forecasting is experimental. Though my understanding and the understanding of the general meteorological community improves every year, some parts of this forecast will no doubt be wrong.

I’m actually really happy with my autumn forecast which was surprisingly close to reality – I’m particularly delighted to have picked out the signal for the cold spell at the end of November, 3 months ago. That said, background signals were strong.

Background signals

Which is a good time to start talking about background signals going into this winter.

Unsurprisingly the background signals are conflicting and create quite a lot of uncertainty – arguably more so than usual. Yet there are plenty that point to a colder than normal winter – alas, the seasonal models generated by super-computers point to a mild winter. Which is why you may have heard professional meteorologists arguing different cases.

Of course, nobody knows exactly how it will pan out – some professional and experienced forecasters are going to be wrong. Maybe I will too.

Anyway, those signals:

La Niña. We had a La Niña last winter, and we have another one this winter. La Niña is thought to increase the chance of north-westerly/northerly flows in November/December, and milder westerly flows in January/February – hence why I was pretty confident of the current cold spell some time out.

It does also depend somewhat on the strength, and also where the La Niña is centred – this is more of an east-based La Niña which I believe increases the cold signal for North-West Europe, and can also increase the chance of high pressure forming to our north/north-east – which would suggest cold easterly flows are possible.

Madden-Julian Oscillation. The pattern of thunderstorms over the Indian and Pacific Ocean has an effect on our weather and the pressure patterns. This is more of a medium-term forecasting tool, so really only any use for December. Currently it is in phase 6, and looks like going into phase 7, which should promote high pressure forming to our north/north-east.

However, it is argued that MJO signals are often over-ridden in La Niña winters, so I’m not sure how much notice to take.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. These are stratospheric winds which switch from west to east, roughly every 22 months. It has recently switched to east which tends to encourage a weaker polar vortex and increases the chances of cold weather in Europe.

Said polar vortex is kind of disorganised in the troposphere (our level of atmosphere) at the moment, though has hints of organising. In the stratosphere (way above our atmosphere – the next level up) it is unusually strong. If the tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortexes couple, then you can wave goodbye to the chance of cold for weeks – sometimes even until the end of winter – and you’ll have weeks of mild, often wet and windy weather. There are hints this coupling may happen later this month, but is highly uncertain.

One thing that can break the coupling of the vortexes, is a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) which you’ll likely have heard me talk about in previous winters. These are a sudden warming of the stratosphere where the winds reverse fairly suddenly. What normally happens 2-4 weeks afterwards, is that high pressure blocking systems set up across the northern hemisphere and cold air floods down into the US, Europe and Asia – though not everywhere, as some places will be on the mild side of the blocking systems.

We had one in 2018 and ended up with the “Beast From The East” – a classic response from an SSW. However we had one last winter, and there was little effect on our weather – we had some cold weather that followed, but nothing unusual and arguably not because of the SSW. However, I do believe that the colder spring that we had was because of the SSW.

It is impossible to know if an SSW will happen more than a couple of weeks ahead. However, a pressure pattern is currently setting up over Europe/Asia that can be a trigger of one, say by late December/early January – so with the lag, that gives a slightly higher than normal chance of significant cold in February.

Finally, the solar cycle. I feel this is more debatable than most signals, but periods of low solar intensity like we are coming out of now, tend to encourage weaker polar vortexes and hence a greater chance of cold spells. And those winters where solar activity is just starting to increase, like this winter, are arguably most likely to experience this effect.

I guess you want a forecast now?

Hopefully you can at least you can see there are lots of conflicting signals, even if more of them do point to cold than normal. As such, overall I think winter will be slightly drier and colder than normal – though with some unsettled spells.

December

December looks like it will be a battle between an Atlantic Ocean finally waking up – and a blocking high stretching from Siberia to Scandinavia.

Generally it will be colder than normal, though low pressure systems will battle into the block, bringing wind and rain at times. There is a plausible chance that there could be some heavy snow as low pressure systems struggle as they come up against cold air to our east – but most precipitation should be rain.

After around mid-month, the jetstream should shift north, with high pressure building from the south – still some weather fronts but mostly light/patchy rain, overnight frosts and fog possible, though generally slightly milder than normal.

Then towards Christmas, that cold weather block to our east looks like it will migrate west, bringing colder air and a seasonal feel, with sharp frosts possible and cold, crisp sunny days. Snow showers would be somewhat possible though dry weather is expected to be dominant.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly below-average, rainfall slightly above-average and sunshine amounts around average.

Confidence level 75%. Main uncertainty is over the Christmas period – as it is certainly possible that we retain a milder southerly/south-easterly source and have mild, dry, probably cloudy/foggy weather instead.

January

January does look more unsettled with more influence from the polar vortex. Any early cold and dry weather should be shunted out of the way by a resurgent Atlantic, perhaps initially some snow as the milder air battles to displace the colder air, but generally becoming mildish and wet.

Occasionally the flow should be more north-westerly, allowing for colder weather, though nothing extreme, and brief easterly flows will also be possible – so though rain is the more likely outcome, there will be marginal opportunities for sleet/snow.

Also worth mentioning that the heaviest rain should often be to our north, so I’m not expecting the wettest month ever, but generally fairly unsettled with some short dry spells.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly above-average, rainfall somewhat above-average and sunshine amounts slightly below-average.

Confidence level 65%. Main uncertainty is the block to the east, and whether colder and drier weather could again spread west at times.

February

February currently looks likely to be a dry month with high pressure generally over the UK, or close to.

This does lead to some uncertainty on temperatures, arguably something milder/cloudier is slightly more likely early February, with colder than normal conditions most of the time after early February.

Often sunny though a risk of fog at times, regular overnight frosts likely which could be sharp, depending on the exact position of high pressure.

Rainfall will be limited, though occasionally the odd weather front will pass over bringing a bit of rain, perhaps sleet/snow, as the high pressure repositions itself.

Low confidence but there are suggestions of a very mild end to February being possible.

Overall I expect slightly below-average temperatures, below average rainfall and above average sunshine.

Confidence level 60%. Main uncertainty is the chance of an SSW, which would increase the chance of easterly flows and snow showers – I’ve assumed no SSW in the forecast as they are impossible to predict this far out.

Summary and Spring Thoughts

So, overall a slightly drier and colder than normal winter is expected, though with some notable unsettled spells too – especially in January.

Remember, it will be a shock if all this comes to pass, but hopefully it will be a good enough guide. Should an SSW occur, then there will be a good chance of a significant cold spell 2-4 weeks later, but it is impossible to know now.

Assuming no SSW (or an SSW that doesn’t favour cold in the UK), then early signs are that March could be warmer than normal.

However, don’t get too excited – early hints for April and May are for colder and somewhat wetter conditions than normal.

Well, I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast, I hope it is reasonably accurate and I hope you can enjoy the weather – whatever it throws at us.…

Thursday 2nd December 2021

Fairly cold and fairly unsettled.

Thanks to James for the photograph.

Clear skies to start tonight, with a frost – down to around -1’C. Cloud will thicken from the west from late evening onwards, with a band of showery rain arriving after say 1am. This may fall as sleet or snow for the first hour or so, so don’t be surprised if there is a temporary covering of snow in places if you are out in the early hours. But it will turn to rain.

Friday starts with patchy rain, it should be fairly light. Dry from around mid-morning but staying mostly cloudy – some bright spells at times. 9’C and feeling milder. An area of rain crossing France may just be far north enough to bring a little rain in the evening – uncertain but we are just about the farthest north it could get, a risk of mist/fog for a time following this – with this reducing towards dawn as further showers push across from the west. Lots going on! Around 7’C.

For Saturday we are back in the fairly cold north-westerly flow, with low pressure close to our north-east.

Some showers to start the day, windy too, but becoming mostly sunny from around mid-morning onwards, with a bit of cloud and only a small chance of a shower. 7’C. Probably clear skies at first, down to around 2’C though with a fairly strong wind making it feel colder. Tending to be more cloud as the night goes on – with some showers possible later in the night, which should be of rain…but I wouldn’t totally rule out some sleet/snow mixed in.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy, fairly cold and windy – with some showers. Possible it will stay dry as showers look more likely further east…that detail a tad uncertain. Around 5’C but feeling colder. Clear spells at first overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost in places – though cloud thickening as the night goes on, from the west.

Monday sees a band of rain spreading across from the west, most likely during the morning period though perhaps dragging a bit into the afternoon. A small chance of a little sleet/snow mixed in to start, but if so it will turn to rain. Brighter skies will follow. Around 7’C. Clear skies at first overnight, a frost possible, clouding over as the night goes on as the next weather front approaches. Down to around 0’C.

Tuesday looks like we will see a deep area of low pressure head our way from a much more energised jetstream than of late – and coming into a cold block to our east.

There is some uncertainty over this, but it does feel like a bit of a pattern-changing weather system. A band of rain will spread across, probably during the morning, some heavy rain possible, along with some strong winds. Briefly mild, 11’C.

Wednesday looks like the low pressure will be stuck over the UK, struggling to move. Showers or rain possible, and likely windy, though details will depend on the position of the low. Around 8’C.

Thursday probably still sees the low over us, though decaying, so some showers possible.

Friday onwards likely sees renewed vigour in the jetstream, which will continue to break down the cold block to our east and allow low pressure systems to move fully across the UK, bringing spells of heavy rain and strong winds.

This does look like it will last a week or so, bands of heavy rain, strong winds – I wouldn’t rule out a spell of gales/severe gales at some point with the likely conditions, though that is speculation.

Not especially mild either, occasionally so, but often on the chilly side, due to the jetstream being a little further south than normal. All precipitation should be rain, but there will be a small chance of transient snow if enough cold air can move south between weather systems.

Winter forecast will be out in the next couple of days. Have a good weekend.…

Winter Forecast Photograph Request

Time to do my winter forecast.

But it needs a photograph. Hi!

Usual requirements apply:

  1. It must feature winter weather. There are various types of winter weather that you could choose from – snow isn’t the only thing that happens in winter!
  2. It must feature the local area.
  3. The length of the photograph must be longer than the height.

Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.

And I will donate £20 to a charity of their choice. But please make it something the internet won’t start arguments about – fluffy kittens good, charities involved in politics bad. That kind of thing.

Please add them to the Facebook post or e-mail them.

The usual forecast will be issued tonight, the winter forecast over the weekend – probably Saturday but depends on life and stuff.…

Monday 29th November 2021

A mild blip for Tuesday but more cold to come.

Thanks to Ru for the photograph.

Tonight starts cold, with a frost in places, but will become gradually milder and cloudier, with a little rain later in the night. Down to around 0’C at first but ticking up to around 6’C by dawn.

Tuesday looks mostly cloudy with a little patchy rain at times. Breezy and much milder at 11’C. A band of more organised showery rain spreading down from the north-west late evening/overnight, some heavy bursts mixed in. 11’C but cooler towards dawn.

Wednesday sees the wind swing to the north, so it becomes colder again.

Sunny spells in the morning, with a small chance of a shower. It looks like an area of cloud and more organised showers will spread down during the afternoon. 7’C but feeling colder in the northerly wind. Clear skies overnight with temperatures down to around 0’C and a frost – there is a chance of a small area of showers spreading down later in the night, which could fall as rain or snow – too much uncertainty at this stage.

Thursday will be sunny but cold. High cloud tending to build during the afternoon. 3’C in a northerly breeze. Frosty at first overnight, down to around -2’C. A band of showery rain will spread down from the north-west before dawn – it could easily start as sleet or snow, but almost certainly will turn to rain.

Friday morning sees rain clearing – followed by sunny spells. Around 7’C. Further rain spreading across overnight, around 8’C and windy.

A bit of uncertainty for Saturday, as it depends on how quickly the overnight low pressure can clear east – arguably the most likely outcome is that it struggles to clear and there is more showery rain on Saturday, and still fairly cold at around 6’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday is that it is sunny but quite cold, say around 5’C. Fairly low confidence though – it really depends on how the low pressure from Friday night/early Saturday clears.

Very low confidence for next week. It looks like a battle is forming between much colder air to our east/north-east, and milder weather from the Atlantic.

My hunch is that the colder air kind of wins without it ever being too cold, but at least stops a total mild takeover. We’d see mostly slightly colder than normal weather, some rain and wind at times, with a small chance of snow instead.…

Friday 26th November 2021

Cold this weekend, then alternating next week between a bit milder and a bit colder. However, let’s talk wind…and snow (ish).

Thanks to Cathy for the frosty photograph.

So tonight is one of those delightful difficult forecasts where the answer is not sure. From late evening onwards, showery rain/sleet and snow will spread down from the north. Most likely you’ll see both rain and sleet/snow at various points (well, you will if you stay up all night) but less likely you’ll see any on the ground. However I wouldn’t rule out some patchy accumulations – especially if you have any elevation, say 2cm or so. Down to around 1’C in a strong northerly wind.

Saturday sees low pressure close to our east with a cold northerly flow.

Generally cloudy with showery rain – occasionally that turning to sleet and/or snow. Any snow unlikely to settle, but temporary accumulations if you get a particularly heavy shower would be possible, especially with elevation. Feeling cold in the strong northerly wind, 4’C at best. Showers clearing east in the evening, clear spells forming as the night goes on, frosty, down to around -2’C – still windy.

Sunday looks sunny but cold. Maybe a bit of cloud at times. 3’C – still a notable breeze. A small chance of a wintry shower in the evening/first part of the night, otherwise some clear spells, still breezy, down to around -2’C with a frost.

Some sunny spells on Monday morning though generally becoming cloudier. 4’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though milder air arriving, around 5’C.

For Tuesday we are in a more westerly/north-westerly flow – with some milder air.

Fairly cloudy, some limited sunny spells. Around 10’C and fairly windy. A band of showery rain spreading south-east in the evening/first part of the night, clear spells following. Down to around 5’C once the rain clears.

Wednesday sees the wind swing more northerly again. Sunny spells, a small chance of a shower, and a bit colder at around 8’C. Still windy. Clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost possible.

Thursday looks pretty cold again. Probably sunny, though uncertain, temperatures around 5’C at best. Frost possible overnight.

Thursday night into Friday looks like it will see rain spread across from the west – there might be a little sleet/snow at first before it turns into rain, but way too early to know. Sunny spells and milder weather following.

Uncertain for next weekend. Either a milder westerly flow or a colder north-westerly flow – some rain either way but probably not that much.

Probably turning unsettled and mostly mild for a week or so after that.

Enjoy your weekend – and any snow that you see falling!…

Tuesday 23rd November 2021

Becoming colder, becoming unsettled with a chance of…snow.

Yes, there is actually a chance of snow this weekend before winter even arrives. A chance, not a guarantee, and I’m sure it will be marginal all the way until the event.

Thanks to Phillipa for the photograph. I was hoping someone would send me something wintry to use.

Clear skies to start tonight, a frost possible at first though low cloud developing for much of the latter part of the night, perhaps fog in one or two places. Down to around 0’C, though ticking up a tad later in the night.

Wednesday sees the next plunge of colder northerly air arrive.

Generally dull and cloudy, any mist/fog will clear fairly swiftly though. The odd spot of drizzle possible, 8’C. Cloudy overnight, a little patchy rain – cloud clearing south around dawn, 4’C.

Thursday morning will be sunny. Some cloud in the afternoon, but sunny spells also. Feeling cold in the northerly wind, 6’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost for most, remaining breezy.

Friday sees low pressure spread down from the north which is going to make things interesting.

A band of showery rain will spread south in the morning, followed by sunshine and heavy showers. It will be windy with temperatures around 7’C at best – not impossible that the heavy showers could have a wintry mix, say some soft hail/sleet but most likely everything falls as rain.

Overnight will see further showers spread south, and these could easily fall as sleet or snow, or a general mix of rain, sleet and snow. No guarantee that they will develop yet, or head this way, but more likely than not we’ll see some form of feature with showers. Could easily be rain, could easily be snow – impossible to state this far out as the conditions are marginal. Down to around 0’C, winds likely strong – a small chance of gales.

A covering of snow would not be too much of a surprise.

Saturday has plenty of uncertainty about it. Showery rain/sleet and/or snow will be probable at times, especially in the morning. Sunshine uncertain. Winds strong – perhaps with gales. Should there be any snow on the ground in the morning, I wouldn’t expect it to take too long to melt. Temperatures, 4’C at best but feeling much colder. Wintry showers fading overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost likely.

Sunday probably cold and dry with sunny spells. Around 4’C and winds easing. A sharp frost likely overnight, down to around -3’C.

Monday looks fairly cold with a little light rain.

Milder for Tuesday.

Probably cooler for the rest of next week with some rain and strong winds at times.

Next forecast will be on Friday.…

Thursday 18th November 2021

Colder weather is around the corner.

You have two more mild days left, but Sunday will be quite the change – and likely it will be colder than normal for the time of year for around 2 weeks – perhaps longer.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd clear spell, no lower than 10’C.

Friday sees high pressure still over the south of the UK, though it is about to shift west.

A lot of cloud around, perhaps a bit of drizzle early on, but there will be some sunny breaks at times. Mild, 14’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of drizzle at times, 10’C.

Saturday remains mild but the colder air will be starting to sink south. Generally cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain or drizzle at times (more likely in the morning), perhaps some limited bright/sunny spells in the afternoon, but generally just more gloom. But the end of the gloom. A weak weather front sinks south overnight, bringing a bit of light, perhaps moderate rainfall – but still very small amounts of rain. Clear skies before dawn, down to around 5’C with the northerly breeze picking up.

For Sunday we are in a cold northerly wind, veering north-easterly.

Sunny in the morning, an area of cloud and showers will spread south during the afternoon. 7’C but feeling colder than that in a fresh northerly wind. Mostly clear skies overnight but too windy for a frost, down to around 4’C.

Sunny spells again for Monday. Some cloud at times and a small chance of a shower. 9’C but feeling colder in an easterly wind. A bit of uncertain on cloud amounts and also wind strength overnight, a chance of a frost but more likely too much cloud and/or wind.

Tuesday probably sees more cloud, though some sunny spells at times. Around 8’C. Lighter winds overnight so frost and/or fog possible – it wouldn’t surprise me to see freezing fog. Temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 3’C.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday is for it to be foggy – though not especially high confidence. Assuming so, it will be cold. 6’C if the fog clears, lower if not.

Thursday could be anything really – foggy, cloudy, sunny, wet, windy, windless – but likely it remains colder than normal, at around 6’C.

Friday and into next weekend looks like low pressure will head down from the north-west, but it’s too early to give day-to-day details.

Generally staying cool or cold, say somewhere between 4’C and 8’C, with some rain at some points, and it could be windy. Overnight frosts possible if winds are light and skies clear, but most nights will probably either have too much cloud or wind for a frost.

A small chance that some sleet/snow could be mixed in – there’s even an outside chance of heavy snow. But the more likely outcome for any areas of precipitation is that they fall as rain. It is still early in the season to be expecting snow – even in January/February conditions are often marginal at best down here.

So those of you who enjoy snow, keep your hopes in check and your expectations low. It can happen, but it requires fairly perfect set-ups at late November (ie November 2010) – and this ain’t perfect, but you could get lucky.

More likely this colder than normal north-westerly/northerly flow will continue into December, perhaps well into December. Some short mild spells likely, but more of the time it should be colder than normal, with the potential for something noteworthy.

Ahhh some interesting weather at last.…

Monday 15th November 2021

More mild nothingness. But remember that cold spell that I keep mentioning for late November? Keep reading…

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

A chilly night tonight, clear spells developing, with mist and fog developing fairly widely – not everywhere though. Down to around 3’C.

Tuesday starts with mist, fog or low cloud for many – though one or two spots may see some early sunshine. A weak weather front will cross during the day, bringing cloud and the odd spot of light rain. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, some patchy cloud, a little breezy too, 6’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure close to our south-west.

Sunny spells, though hazy at times with high/mid level cloud around quite often. 11’C in a fairly light westerly breeze. Clear spells and chilly overnight, down to around 5’C – though cloud spreading across from the west later, though likely rather high/mid level stuff.

Thursday likely sees quite a lot of cloud around, especially in the afternoon. Some bright spells with more high/mid level cloud at times – that more likely in the morning. Mild in a westerly breeze, 14’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in charge over the south of the UK. Lots of cloud still, though some sunshine possible at times – not especially confident though. Mild, 13’C. Cloudy to start overnight, though some clear spells likely to develop as the night goes on, and becoming chilly, down to around 5’C.

By Saturday, high pressure will be shifting to the west, allowing a more north-westerly flow, and then a northerly flow to develop.

Sunny spells, some cloud – still mild as the colder air remains to our north at this stage, 12’C. Tending to cloud overnight later in the day, with a weak weather front bringing some patchy rain either during the evening or overnight. A frost possible by dawn – but that will depend on how quickly the weather front clears.

Sunday sees a cold northerly flow. Nothing unusual for the time of year – but a distinct change. Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and temperatures around 8’C. It will feel colder than that in the northerly wind. Clear spells overnight, it might be too windy for a frost but either way it will be cold.

Next week starts with high pressure cloud to our west. Probably often sunny by day, but potentially some cloud at times. Temperatures around 8’C by day, and around 0’C overnight, though that depending on cloud/wind amounts – so overnight frosts very possible, but impossible to be sure on exact conditions this far out.

Two broad schools of thought as to where we go for the rest of next week and into next weekend (and probably beyond).

1 – High pressure stays close to the west or over the UK, most likely slightly/somewhat colder than normal but nothing unusual, overnight frosts likely, fog possible and staying dry.
2 – High pressure remains to our west, perhaps more north-west, and we get much colder air from the Arctic, perhaps as early as Thursday. Overnight significant frosts, cold northerly winds, daytime temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 5’C – some showers possible at times – and yes, they could be of sleet or snow.

Option 2 is currently more likely, say around 60/40 favourite.

I shall leave you on that cliff-hanger.…

Thursday 11th November 2021

No need to read the forecast, nothing going on, mostly mild, only a bit of rain – same old, really.

Thanks to Becky for the wonderful gloom.

Some clear spells tonight, though cloud at times, especially later. Down to around 7’C.

Friday sees a decaying low pressure head across the UK, from the west.

Cloudy to start with a fairly weak band of rain crossing – an hour or two of light-moderate rain. From mid/late morning, a few hours of sunny spells though a moderate chance of a shower also, then mostly cloudy from there, with a light shower possible. Quite windy and mild, 15’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, perhaps a spot of rain, 10’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy. There will be some brightness/sunny spells at times, more likely in the middle portion of the day. 13’C in lighter winds. Mostly cloudy overnight in an easterly breeze, around 9’C.

Sunday starts cloudy. There should be some sunny breaks at times, more likely mid/late afternoon – but cloud will dominate. 12’C. Cloudy overnight – possibly foggy. Down to around 8’C.

Monday sees high pressure very much in control, stretching from well to the west of the Azores and well into Russia.

Starting cloudy or foggy – any fog will be slow to clear, and I’m not especially optimistic for any sunshine – but there may be some in the afternoon. Around 11’C. Probably cloudy overnight, a chance of fog, down to around 8’C.

Told you this forecast was boring.

Tuesday is probably cloudy. 10’C. Suggestions of a more north-westerly flow overnight, which should clear some of the cloud, though perhaps with the odd shower from a weak weather front. Down to around 5’C.

A north-westerly flow on Wednesday should bring some sunny spells – but also a fair amount of cloud. Around 11’C. Clear spells overnight, breezy, down to around 3’C.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday, more of the same, plenty of cloud, perhaps a little light rain from any weak weather fronts, a bit of sunshine at times, cooler on Thursday, milder on Friday & Saturday.

Sunday may see a transition to something cooler/colder from either the north-west or north – but early days.

There remains a good chance of cooler/colder than normal weather for the latter third of November and the first half of December. But it is squeaky bum time – this period been signalled as likely colder than normal for a couple of months, I’ve talked about it since the beginning of September – and now we are almost there.

Will it actually happen? Who knows. It’s just a good chance, not a definite.

I wish you a boring weekend.…