Thursday 6th May 2021

Finally I can offer you something warmer. But there is plenty of rain and showers to come also. Mwa ha ha ha.

Sorry. I guess the window of opportunity for things to warm up from around 7th May, that I’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks, is being taken – of sorts. However, low pressure will be close by, so though we lose the chilly northerlies, we are gaining rain and showers. But in between – there will be warm sunshine to be had.

Let’s crack on with some details – though it won’t take long to become uncertain.

Plenty of photographs this week and some really good ones too. Thanks to Peter for this.

Clear skies overnight, temperatures down to 1’C so a frost in some spots.

Friday starts sunny. A fair amount of fair weather cloud will develop, around a 40% chance of a shower too, but compared to late quite a pleasant day. 15’C. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening as the night goes on with rain arriving around 4am – give or take. Down to 3’C but temperatures increasing as the rain arrives.

Saturday sees a deep area of low pressure head our way, though stalling out west – this heralding a notable change in weather patterns.

Persistent and heavy rain all morning with fairly strong winds – however as the low pressure stalls to our west, it will also drag up warmer air from the south. The rain should clear north during the afternoon – a bit of uncertainty on this and possible that it keeps raining, but assuming it does, with some sunshine than 16’C to 18’C should be reached. Variable cloud overnight, a chance of some light rain pushing east, still quite windy, around 11’C.

Sunday is a bit vague in detail, but we’ll be under much warmer air than for some time. Something broadly quite cloudy, probably more so in the morning, possible bits of occasional rain – and there should be some hazy sunshine at times. Certainly could be sunnier than described or with more rain, but broadly as outlined. With enough sunshine, 17’C to 20’C should be reached. In the evening and first part of the night, there is around a 25% chance of importing some heavy downpours, perhaps thundery from France – more likely they’ll stay to our east. Otherwise skies clearing, down to around 10’C.

By Monday we’ll have lost the notable warmth, but it is still regime change. Sunny spells, though with low pressure close to our west, plenty of showers will develop – most places getting a couple and they could be heavy, with a small chance of hail and/or thunder. Quite warm in the sunshine, 16’C or even a tad more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Lower confidence by Tuesday. I think probably sunny spells with some showers possible, though lower chances than Monday. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 17’C so quite warm.

Details are really too sketchy from here. Low pressure is likely going to be somewhere over the UK or close by, though we should remain in mild/quite warm air.

More likely Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be a case of sunshine and heavy showers, with temperatures somewhere between 14’C and 17’C – though a smallish chance of general heavy rain instead at some point, in which case temperatures closer to 12’C. No overnight frosts!

No confidence on any solution for next weekend or the week after – it could very easily stay unsettled, but with some warmish sunshine at times – or it could become more broadly settled and warm. Unsettled is the slight favourite.

Have a good weekend – enough the warmth but keep your umbrella handy!…

Monday 3rd May 2021

An unsettled week ahead – quite a mixture of weather with rain, strong winds, colder air, sunshine, showers all in the mix – and perhaps something warmer for the weekend. Though don’t get excited – warmer…but wet.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph – exactly what I required for this forecast.

There is a fair bit of uncertainty for both Thursday and the weekend onwards, so please do bear this in mind.

Monday starts bright but cloud will thicken as a rather deep area of low pressure for early May approaches. Rain from around 2pm onwards, perhaps a shower beforehand, continuing right through the evening, say until 10pm – it will be heavy at times, perhaps occasionally very heavy in the evening. Becoming windy with gusts of 50mph during the evening – enough for the odd tree, fence panel, etc to be blown down. 12’C. Winds remain strong overnight, though not as strong as during the evening hours, rather cloudy with the odd shower too. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts with this low pressure system moving away to our east – pulling in a colder northerly flow.

It will be rather cloudy, the strong winds will remain to make it feel colder than the 12’C we should reach. And there will be plenty of showers, some heavy with a small chance of thunder. Sunshine limited, but there will be some sunny breaks, especially in the afternoon. Showers remain possible in the evening and first part of the night, but it will become mostly dry with variable cloud, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday is another showery day in the fairly cold northerly wind – though the wind will lessen as the day goes on. Some sunny spells but plenty of showers, some heavy or very heavy, thunder and hail both possible. Around 11’C but feeling colder. Skies clearing for a while overnight, though high/mid level cloud increasing later as the next low pressure system approaches. Down to around 2’C.

Thursday is a bit uncertain. Low pressure is set to head roughly in our direction, though there is a chance that it may be a bit further south. The most likely outcome, at around 75% likelihood, is a spell of persistent rain during the morning and early afternoon – brighter with showers to follow, and temperatures somewhere around a rather chilly 8’C. In May. If the low pressure system tracks a bit further south, the 25% chance, then expect something along the lines of limited sunny spells and a few showers, and temperatures around 11’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C.

Friday looks reasonable in the context of this coming week. Some sunny spells, plenty of fair weather cloud, a couple of showers around so maybe a 50% chance of catching one, and temperatures around 14’C.

Details for the weekend (and indeed Friday night) are uncertain. The general picture is that low pressure will be moving in from the west – spreading some heavy rain across but also dragging some warm air up from the south.

One kind of broad view would be that the low pressure system crosses the UK during the weekend, bringing some heavy rain at some point, also some strong winds – but if the rain times overnight on Friday, then perhaps we squeeze an 18’C and some sunshine on the Saturday, with a chance of showers too – but then cooler for Sunday once the low clears.

Another broad view would be that the low pressure system stalls close to the UK or just to the west – some general rain probable at some point, but also increasing warmth with temperatures around 20’C (give or take), potentially rather humid, with some sunny spells – but also some heavy downpours/thunderstorms breaking out.

It is too early to know how the weekend low pressure system will behave – and whichever evolution it takes will likely determine the weather for the next week or two. The latter, warmer of the two routes gives an easier transition to more general warm weather – though I’d expect some heavy rain/showers at times too. The former outcome would mean more colder, Arctic-sourced air would be more likely to return, though that is likely a drier outcome – and eventually warmer later in the month.

It does feel like quite a pivotal weekend ahead. And a very interesting period of weather model watching this week.

I think it will take another couple of days to resolve this…next full forecast will be on Thursday evening but if I become convinced of the low pressure evolution before then, I will try to update you before then.…

Thursday 29th April 2021

Cool and showery for a few days. Followed by more general rain at times next week. Well…some of you wanted some rain.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Scattered showers remain possible this evening and into the first part of the night, clear spells developing with temperatures down to around 1’C – a frost in sheltered spots.

Friday starts with sunny spells and some cloud. Cloud will bubble up with showers breaking out – around a 70% chance of catching one or more, some will be heavy. 13’C and still on the cool side. Clear skies developing overnight, a small chance of fog by dawn, down to around 2’C with a frost in sheltered spots.

For Saturday we are in a “no overall control” situation.

Any early fog will quickly clear to sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Showers will break out again, around a 70% chance of catching one or more, again they could be heavy. A slight suggestion of a cluster of showers for late afternoon/early evening – but showers possible any time after mid-morning. 13’C, maybe 14’C. Showers will fade after early evening, skies clear – down to around 3’C. A chance of fog in places by dawn.

Sunday is more of the same. Perhaps a tad more sunshine and temperatures up to around 14’C, but there will be plenty of showers around again, some heavy. Skies clearing at first overnight, though high/medium cloud developing in the second half. Down to around 4’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts bright with hazy sunshine. Cloud will gradually thicken with some outbreaks of rain in the afternoon. Becoming windy, 13’C. Strong winds and heavy rain in the evening – uncertain overnight as to whether the rain clears south, or hangs around.

Tuesday tentatively looks OK – though I’m far from confident. Sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower or two, but nothing especially of note. Around 14’C but a cool breeze…again. Clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday probably similar, some sunny spells, some cloud, one or two scattered showers. Around 13’C. A chance of rain arriving later in the day – uncertain on timescale for this.

From Thursday onwards the main question will be regarding the track of the jetstream – whatever it does, there will be rain at some point…or points.

If it is a bit further south, say over northern France then Thursday and into next weekend will be wet/very wet at times and cold when wet. I wouldn’t completely rule out wintry precipitation mixed in.

If it is a bit further north, say over the Midlands, then it will still be wet/very warm at times, but also quite warm. This evolution also includes a smaller chance of low pressure stalling to our west and dragging up very warm air by Saturday/Sunday. Feasibly by Sunday – maximum temperatures could be anywhere between a cold 7’C, to a very warm 25’C.

So there is this window of opportunity for some warmer weather from next weekend – but it isn’t the most likely solution. I’d suggest something changeable is the more likely outcome for the second week of May, though that should include a couple of pleasant days – along with some showers/rain other days.

I was originally expecting May to be broadly warm, sunny and dry. Unless this window of opportunity brings a warm spell, I’d suggest that we will be waiting until the second half of May for more consistent, warm, sunny weather. You know – when the pubs/restaurants are open indoors.

Looking further ahead, I expect June to be the best part of the summer – often warm/hot, some good sunny days but also a few showery spells too – probably some thunderstorms. Currently there is a fairly strong signal for high pressure to our south-east during June (signal actually appears late May) which is where you want it, if you want it very warm or hot. Granted there was a strong signal for high pressure over the UK in May, until a couple of weeks ago. So take it with the usual pinch of salt.

July and August still look more mixed. Some short hot spells likely – also some more unsettled spells too.…

Monday 26th April 2021

A cool week ahead – some sunshine but less sunshine than of late and also some showers as high pressure loses control of our weather.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at first. Some cloud spreading down from the north later in the night and a fairly cold night again, down to around 1’C – a frost in places.

Tuesday will be generally fairly bright but with a fair amount of cloud, making this hazy. Some showers will develop as the afternoon goes on and into the evening as an area of low pressure treks south – possibly heavy. 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, still a chance of a shower though most will be to our west, down to around 5’C.

For Wednesday we have low pressure over us – something we haven’t seen for a while, and this will pull in a chilly north-easterly wind – chilly winds we have seen plenty of!

There’s a bit of uncertain as to how widely showers will break out – more likely we’ll start the day fairly cloudy but bright with some hazy sunshine – showers breaking out during the morning and perhaps turning into general showery rain as the day goes on. However, this could be a bit further south, so a small chance instead of a dry day – we are kind of on the border. Assuming some hazy sunshine, then around 13’C. The cloud and possible showery rain will clear south overnight – clear skies and another chilly night, down to somewhere between 0’C and 5’C – depending on how quickly skies clear – so a risk of frost.

Thursday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up to become mostly cloudy from around lunchtime – still a bit of brightness, but limited. A few scattered showers during the afternoon – but only around a 30% chance of catching one. 12’C and feeling chilly in the northerly breeze. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 1’C with a frost in places.

Friday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up though there will be some sunny spells throughout the day. Some heavy showers will develop, around a 60% chance of catching one or two. Around 12’C in a chilly northerly breeze. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 1’C with a frost in places.

Saturday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up again, though a bit more sunshine than Friday. One of two heavy showers possible, around a 40% chance of catching one or two. Around 13’C though still a chilly northerly breeze. Clear spells overnight, down to around 2’C.

Sunday looks like high pressure might just start trying to build from the south-west – though more notably there are two low pressure systems to the west.

So it should be fairly sunny, some cloud bubbling up and again a chance of one or two heavy showers. Around 13’C but we’ll have lost the chilly northerly – perhaps 15’C at a push.

Bank Holiday Monday is uncertain at this stage, but slightly more likely is for wind and rain to spread east – the slightly less likely option is just a continuation of the sunny spells and scattered heavy showers theme. Somewhere around 13’C, give or take, in either outcome.

Any sign of summer?

No. The more likely outcome for next week is a short unsettled spell – wind, rain and/or showers – followed by another chilly northerly.

There is a window of opportunity for a warm-up from around 7th May – but if low pressure entrenches itself next week, then we could easily end up with a couple more weeks of cool and unsettled weather – before the next window of opportunity.…

Thursday 22nd April 2021

Stuck in a loop – dry, often sunny – no sign of proper warmth.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph – ducklings are always a winner with me – easiest way to melt my heart!

Clear skies tonight, down to around 1’C – a frost in some places, especially anywhere more sheltered.

Friday sees high pressure still in control, though now to the north-east of the UK.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine, with minimal cloud, just some high cloud in the afternoon. Quite warm in a south-easterly breeze, 17’C. High cloud remains overnight so less cold overnight than of late, 4’C.

Saturday again sees good spells of sunshine. Quite a bit of high cloud which may make it hazy at times, and the breeze swinging more easterly, so a tad cooler than Friday – say 16’C at a push. Clear spells at first though some cloud spilling in from the east later in the night, 5’C.

Sunday morning looks quite cloudy. Most likely the sun will start breaking through late morning, becoming predominantly sunny once it does. A bit of uncertainty on this – the cloud could hang on until the afternoon, if it does then temperatures close to 11’C, but assuming the more likely outcome of cloud clearing in the morning, 15’C. Clear spells overnight at first, cloud tending to build from the east later, 4’C.

Monday again has a bit of uncertainty over cloud amounts, though this time more likely that the cloud hangs on for longer – it could be rather dull for a fair portion, but there will be some sunny breaks at times also. Around 13’C. A weak weather front spreads south overnight, bringing more cloud and perhaps a bit of rain – perhaps. Down to around 4’C, give or take.

This weak weather front looks like it will introduce a north-easterly flow – yes, just before the bank holiday weekend. How many outdoor pub/restaurant bookings do I have? Just the 3. Sigh.

So Tuesday looks quite cloudy, with a few showers around. 13’C. Chilly overnight – a frost possible if clear skies, but cloudy with the odd shower also possible – it’s uncertain.

Wednesday will see some sunshine, but plenty of cloud and a few showers around. Feeling quite cold in the north-easterly wind, 11’C. Cold overnight, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Thursday should remain on the cool side. Uncertain on cloud amounts at this stage, I’d suggest more cloud than sun is more likely. A shower possible and somewhere around 12’C.

Friday should still be dry, but cool. Uncertainty on temperatures – we may just start to nudge something less cool up from the south, thanks to low pressure over Spain, but perhaps not. Somewhere between 11’C and 15’C – but don’t get your hopes up yet.

The bank holiday weekend is uncertain at this stage.

It looks like the low pressure that will form over Spain (or close to) will try to push warmer air north, but at the same time colder air may try to push south.

So we could be in the middle with pleasant averageness, we could end up with a chilly, cloudy weekend, we could end up with a pleasant and slowly warming weekend – though a chance of showers too.

Basically I don’t know yet. I can see the broader evolution, but how it will play out in the relatively small geographical area of southern England is uncertain.

I am more hopeful for warmth for the weekend after – but we could also see a few showers in the mix too.…

Monday 19th April 2021

More pleasant weather to come this week – a bit cooler from Wednesday again, but plenty of sunshine overall.

Lots of photographs this week again – I assume because people are out and about a bit more since the re-opening? Sunshine helps also.

Tonight sees clear spells, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of high/mid-level cloud, meaning that the sunshine will be more hazy than Monday, and generally more cloud bubbling up in the afternoon also – giving a 30% chance of an afternoon shower. It will be quite warm, 17’C – maybe squeezing 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight – perhaps a spot of light rain by dawn as a weak weather front slowly creeps south, 9’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure still in control, though the overnight weak weather front will re-introduce cooler air.

Quite cloudy in the morning – some limited brightness – the odd spot of rain possible. Towards lunchtime sunshine amounts should start to increase, initially small-moderate chance of a shower or two, but as the afternoon goes on they will move south and sunshine amounts continue to increase. Cooler, around 13’C. Clear spells overnight – frost possible, especially in more sheltered spots, down to around 1’C.

Thursday looks reasonably sunny. A bit of cloud around at times, more so in the morning, but a pleasant day if not especially warm – 14’C at a push. Clear spells overnight, a frost probable for a short time, down to around 0’C.

Friday will be similar. Good spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud at times, and temperatures between 13’C and 17’C – just a bit of uncertainty on wind directions and hence maximum temperatures. Clear skies overnight – a frost possible.

Saturday should remain sunny. A bit of uncertainty on wind direction – somewhere between easterly and south-easterly so temperatures reaching somewhere between 13’C and 18’C. Also a low risk of importing some cloud from the North Sea if we do have an easterly, which would make temperatures lower – but a low risk at this point.

By Sunday the chance of importing low cloud increases – though uncertain at this stage. So it could either be cloudy all day – or a good part of it, and close to 10’C, or sunny for most of the day, and pleasant between 14’C and 16’C.

Next week likely remains mostly dry, probably at least often sunny – but temperatures uncertain. I don’t expect better than average, say between 14’C and 17’C – though a flow from a colder direction, say a return of the northerlies, is very possible – which would mean temperatures between 8’C and 12’C, with a few showers.

The mostly dry and often sunny conditions should last through May and June – some showers at times but dry more often than not. Nothing especially warm likely until after early May.

July and August still look mixed – no signals for any dominant pattern, other than a usual British summer mix.…

Thursday 15th April 2021

Staying mostly dry – but no sign of any warmth at all. Pleasant when sunny – mild, perhaps quite warm at best, but cool occasionally too.

Not the greatest weather for drinking and dining outdoors! Has anyone else taken advantage of our new-found freedom this week? I’ve been out both Tuesday and Wednesday, and I have to say that I have rediscovered a love for life – despite having to sit outside in the cold. Strange how after the first lockdown, it took me 3-4 weeks to be comfortable enough to go to a restaurant – this time I had no reluctance at all.

The signs for the weather over the next month or so are good – in terms of sunshine and lack of rainfall – though temperatures taking their time to impress, so hopefully we will have plenty of decent weather for outdoor socialising.

More photographs this week than I’ve had in the past two months put together! Not sure what happened there?! Oh yeah…snow. Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Tonight will see plenty of clear spells, temperatures down to around 0’C or a little below, so a frost for most. Fog patches in places by dawn.

Friday continues the theme of recent days. Sunny to start, though perhaps some early fog to clear for some, then becoming mostly cloudy from around lunchtime. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up again, but less so than in recent days – still a fair amount of cloud though. 12’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 1’C with a frost in places. A small chance of fog in a few spots by dawn, but unlikely.

By Sunday we have a large area of high pressure over Russia and Scandinavia which remains our main influence, though weather fronts trying to push in from the west.

We cut off the chilly easterly, it will start sunny, though on the hazy side. Some cloud will bubble up but it will remain a pleasant day and reach close to 14’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C so all but the most sheltered spots escaping a frost, a small chance of fog patches by dawn.

Monday stays dry with sunny spells – weather fronts to our west not able to make any progress. There will be some cloud, but generally fairly sunny. Squeezing into the quite warm category (for April), 15’C or a tad more. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday looks quite cloudy as the weather front to our west finally makes it (probably) – probably not much rain, if any, just a case of cloud – and some sunny breaks. Likely still quite warm, especially in the sunny breaks, 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 6’C.

Wednesday is a bit uncertain on cloud amounts – temperatures likely to be a bit lower, say around 12’C.

Annoyingly, by Thursday it looks like we might scrape a northerly breeze.

Not certain, we could end up with something quite warm, but the slightly more likely outcome is this chilly northerly breeze, pegging temperatures back to around 12’C – maybe even lower. Sunny spells likely either way.

By Friday things are increasingly uncertain. Likely dry, likely at least some sunshine – but the direction of the flow is uncertain – anything from a chilly 10’C to a quite warm 17’C feels likely, though the cool side of this range a little more likely.

Next weekend more likely dry with some sunshine than otherwise. Again temperatures uncertain – anywhere between a chilly 10’C and a warm 20’C possible, depending on how high pressure has orientated itself – though again slightly more likely on the cooler side of the range. Small changes in wind direction can make quite a large difference at this time of year – easterlies are generally warm in May, but generally chilly in April!

It likely stays dry through much of May, with chances of heavy showers towards the end of the month. It should warm up by the beginning of May (if not late April), but don’t be surprised if there is another cold northerly/north-easterly at some point. Good amounts of sunshine though.

Slowly life is getting back to normal. Slowly the weather is improving.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 12th April 2021

Mostly dry this week (and probably next) but staying on the chilly side.

So this morning was a perfect example of me having taken my eye off the models – at least in the short-term as all I was looking at was the coming weekend and time after that, as I seek signs of warmth!

And then I woke up in the morning, saw some snow photographs on Twitter and was like…urgh. All winter during the cold spells that we had, I said that snowy surprises could turn up at short notice during the cold spells…yet I forgot my own advice during this cold spell.

Of course, this is a free service for you – I have lots of other things to do. I still just about enjoy writing my forecasts enough to keep doing them, and the little bit of community on the Facebook page is nice – though there is no way that I would start up something like this now from scratch. I’m kind of stuck doing it until something better replaces me…which may be decades away!

So please do bear in mind that this is a free service, I cannot always be on top of everything – this kind of mistake will happen again, perhaps more often in the future, especially if forecasting fatigue grows. I know most of you appreciate it. I know most of the time they are good. I don’t need any reassurance!

Thanks to Caroline for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, some cloud, a frost for most. Down to around -2’C – a small chance of some mist/fog.

Tuesday sees high pressure over the UK.

The morning will see good spells of sunshine. Quite a lot of cloud bubbling up from around midday – a 30% chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, with limited sunshine. 11’C, maybe 12’C. Clear spells overnight, some cloud, a small chance of mist/fog in places and some places seeing a frost – down to around 1’C, or a tad below.

Wednesday morning sees a mixture of cloud and sunny spells. More cloud than sun in the afternoon, a small chance of a shower, say 15% chance. 11’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely for most as we import slightly colder air again, down to around -1’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells in the morning – again quite a lot of cloud for the afternoon with limited sunshine. A small chance of an afternoon shower and feeling colder in a light easterly breeze – 10’C. Clear skies overnight with a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Friday starts sunny again. Lots of cloud bubbling up from around midday onwards with limited sunshine. 11’C. Clear skies overnight – down to around 0’C with a frost in places.

Subtle changes for Saturday – we cut off the cooler easterly flow and less cloud should bubble up than during the week. So more sunshine, temperatures still on the low side, but maybe up towards 13’C at a push, though closer to 11’C still possible. Chilly overnight – frost possible.

Sunday should stay dry and settled, with high pressure a bit less influential. Details a tad more uncertain by this point, but more likely sunny than recent days, and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 16’C.

Next week broadly looks settled with high pressure close by. I wouldn’t be surprised if a weather front did push in from the north-west at some point during the week, with some rain – but most day I’d expect to be dry, with some sunshine. Temperatures uncertain, but more likely in the quite warm category. Something colder – or properly warm possible, but I’d say the range of 14’C to 18’C would be more likely.

And yes, I will be in a pub garden tomorrow evening.…

Thursday 8th April 2021

Well, it was less cold today but Arctic air is coming back – and yes, there is chance of a little wintryness again.

Thanks to Gary for the photograph.

Cloudy to start tonight – it will thin somewhat for a while, and then thicken again towards dawn. Down to around 2’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy as a weather front slowly sinks south. The morning might see a bit of sunshine – a little showery rain too but not much. More in the way of showery rain in the afternoon, the odd heavy burst possible. 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible – down to around 3’C.

By Saturday we are caught in the middle of milder air trying to push up from the south, albeit around a developing area of low pressure over France – and colder Arctic air trying to move down from the north.

The forecast is a pretty close call, though more likely it will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain – though it will depend on the exact position of the developing low pressure. A small, say 15% chance that it stays mostly sunny, colder with the odd shower, but 85% chance that we are just under the weather front. Cold, 5’C and a small chance that any remaining showery rain could even turn to sleet or wet snow in the evening. Wintry showers still possible overnight, particularly at first – cloud should thin as the night goes on and it will be cold with a frost possible, down to around 1’C – colder if cloud thins more than currently expected.

Sunday should start sunny, or maybe hazy. Cloud will bubble up with a fair scattering of showers – rain, sleet, snow, hail, thunder all possible – some heavy. Feeling cold in a northerly wind, 8’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -3’C.

Beer garden re-opening day starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up with a scattering of showers in the afternoon – less than on Sunday, and of rain as we will have somewhat milder air in a weak westerly flow. 11’C. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Tuesday again starts sunny. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up, limited sunshine once it does. A small chance of a shower, 11’C. Clear spells overnight, still some cloud around – down to around 1’C with a frost in places.

By Wednesday it looks like high pressure will be loosely to our east – which is a much more favourable position for temperatures.

Uncertainty on cloud amounts this far away but I’d suggest more sunshine than cloud the more likely outcome. Feeling milder, 13’C – maybe a tad more. Chilly overnight, down to around 2’C.

Confidence reducing by Thursday, but more likely dry with some sunny spells and mild, perhaps quite warm – somewhere between 12’C and 16’C.

I think from this point there are several directions that the weather could go for Friday and into next weekend.

The slightly more likely one would see a vague southerly flow, dry, quite sunny, quite warm – somewhere between 16’C to 18’C. A close second more likely outcome would be a cooler south-easterly or easterly flow, dry, quite cloudy, say around 11’C. Another alternative, slightly less likely again would be a vague southerly flow but with a slack low pressure moving in from the west – so quite warm, some sunshine but some heavy showers too. And a reload of Arctic air remains possible also!

Roughly 40/30/20/10 in terms of splitting those chances down – the models were keen on keeping the cold northerly until near the end of the month until just two days ago (I wasn’t convinced and hadn’t changed my forecast), so things have changed for the better…unless you like it cold in April.

And signals for warm, sunny weather for May and June have strengthened recently. A recent change – only a week ago previous such signals had weakened quite a bit, so maybe there is still a bit of flux to come. But I remain hopeful for plenty of warm, sunny weather for the latter part of spring and early summer.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 5th April 2021

The Arctic blast has arrived and we have a cold week ahead – unusually cold for April.

I hope you enjoyed the really quite pleasant day yesterday – I certainly did, was nice to be sat outside in the sunshine having a beer…and a roast dinner…for the first time this year. Hence why the forecast is this morning rather than the evening…as I suspect that I might be needing an early night!

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

Monday starts with a weak weather front slipping south, with some patchy rain turning to sleet or snow – mostly light and also patchy so you may not see much at all. More sunshine in the afternoon, some cloud around, feeling cold in the northerly wind – 6’C at best. Clear skies overnight with a frost for all, down to around -2’C, still breezy.

For Tuesday we remain in the cold northerly flow – high pressure to our west, low pressure to our east.

It will start sunny but cloud will bubble up as the morning goes on, and there will be a few showers developing – they could fall as rain, sleet or snow – or a mixture, though more likely snow, especially if you catch a fairly heavy shower. That said, showers not likely to be especially widespread, so around a 50% chance of catching one or two. 6’C and feeling cold in the fairly strong northerly wind. Clear skies overnight with a frost for all, down to around -2’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Cloud will gradually thicken from the west during the morning, and it will be rather dull in the afternoon – a small chance of a light rain shower. Still on the cold side, around 8’C, the wind lighter and more north-westerly in origin. A frost possible overnight, though will depend on cloud amounts – somewhere between -1’C and 2’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though temperatures mixing out with some milder air as we temporarily lose the cold source. Some sunshine at times, more likely morning, but cloudy skies fairly dominant. 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight with a weak weather front slowly spreading south, bringing a bit of patchy rain from the early hours onwards. Around 3’C, give or take.

Friday then sees the Arctic air try to push south again.

Most likely rather cloudy, a bit of sun at times and the odd shower. Around 10’C but feeling chilly as the northerly wind returns. Likely cold and frosty overnight, down to around -2’C.

Details uncertain for Saturday – though I do expect it to be cold, the question remains over sunshine amounts and the potential for showers. Broadly, something like cold and sunny in the morning, more cloud in the afternoon with the odd shower (perhaps wintry) seems the more likely broad pattern – but potential for sunshine all day (but cold) or even some rain spreading up from France instead. Around 8’C. Frost probable overnight.

The most likely outcome for Sunday is cold but broadly settled. Some sunshine, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and around 8’C.

Beer Garden re-opening day is most likely rather cold still – so if you have plans for outdoor drinking and dining at the beginning of the week, wrap up warm! I’m hopeful for a return to milder conditions during the week, possible quite warm or warm – but whether that is by, say, midweek, or the weekend, is uncertain. Well, it isn’t certain it will happen – but is the more likely outcome in my view.

Fairly weak signals for the latter part of April – drier and sunnier than normal is more likely, but temperatures are the big uncertainty – they will depend on where high pressure situates itself, and that could easily be in a cold position like this week for at least some of the time. And still some showers at times.

Enjoy the…erm…return of winter.…