So winter starts tomorrow (in meteorological terms it does!). And it will actually start to get cold too – proper winter temperatures, unlike last winter. Some rain later in the week, and just a small chance it might turn to sleet or snow…ooh! Small chances! And it will be a nightmare to forecast.
My winter forecast will be out this week. Hopefully Wednesday, but if not then either Friday or Saturday. It is written in my head.
Thanks to Tracy for the frosty photograph. Friday morning’s frost did take me by surprise as I was expecting too much cloud and fog.
This evening will see a few splashes of patchy rain, clear skies will follow from late evening, down to around 1’C with a frost for most areas.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny. A bit of cloud floaty around but a pleasant, if chilly day. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud around. Down to around 1’C, a frost likely for most.
Wednesday starts to see a change as the breeze shifts to the north-west and low pressure starts to approach.
It should start bright with some sunny spells. A weather front will cross from roughly late morning onwards, bringing cloud and the odd splash of light rain. Chilly, 7’C. Clear skies at first overnight – the more sheltered spots may see a frost, clouding over as the night goes on with outbreaks of rain before dawn, though light and patchy at first. Down to around 2’C, picking up a tad later in the night.
Anything from Thursday onwards is uncertain in terms of precipitation – be it timing, type, intensity, etc – due to not yet knowing the exact track and behaviour of the low pressure system.
Thursday will be cloudy with rain at times. Some of the rain will be heavy, but it won’t be raining all the time – any more detail is still to be ascertained. Around 6’C and still feeling rather chilly. Further showery rain is possible overnight – and if there is rain, and it is heavy enough, there is a small chance that it will turn to sleet or snow as cold air tucks in, and/or the rain makes the air colder. However it could very easily be dry and frosty overnight! As I mentioned and will mention again, until we know the path of the low pressure, we won’t know where in the UK the areas of rain will be, and at what times. If there is rain, then temperatures will be around 2’C – if clear skies then down to around -3’C.
So Friday sees low pressure in charge with some pretty cold air in place.
More likely it will be sunny and cold, with the main weather front to our north, temperatures around 4’C. However, there could instead be some rain or even sleet/snow – as I mentioned this uncertainty is due to the uncertain track of the low pressure. Frost possible overnight.
Saturday, well it will be cold, I know that.
I think this is where I stop the forecast. Details are impossible fort the weekend. Low pressure will be in control, but it will only be raining (or possibly sleeting/snowing) if the weather front is over us – otherwise dry with sunny spells possible. Overnight frosts likely, if the weather front is not over us.
Remember we are never best placed for snow – I’d rate our chances of seeing snow falling at around 20% for some point Thursday night onwards. It will definitely be cold with notable overnight frosts.
They will be very marginal calls – I doubt I will have a better handle until Thursday and I fully expect it to be uncertain right up until the time.
Likely staying cold next week – the emphasis on dry weather with overnight frosts, but further rain or perhaps marginal call rain/snow events possible.…