Weather Forecast For Reading & Berkshire

Well we had our first 20’C of the year yesterday – a showery weekend to come though.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

The general set-up sees our plume of warm air moving east, as low pressure heads our way from the west of Portugal.

Today sees mostly high/mid-level cloud so it will often be bright, sometimes kinda hazy sunshine. The cloud tending to be thicker in the morning, perhaps a little light rain, the cloud a bit thinner in the afternoon. Still quite warm, reaching around 18’C. Showery rain moves in for the evening, say by around 6pm though don’t hold me to an exact time, on and off for around 6 or so hours. Cloudy for the rest of the night and around 10’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a little misty in places. It will slowly break up to allow some sunny spells, but as the sun comes out, showers will develop – some heavy, perhaps thundery. Still a quite warm feel, 16’C is plausible with enough sunshine. Further showers possible in the evening and overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy with either heavy showers breaking out, or perhaps (less likely) general showery rain – depending on the exact positioning of the low pressure. A chance of some limited sunny spells – if you do get some sunshine, then 15’C or so is possible, but otherwise then around 12’C. Generally cloudy overnight, perhaps still a little bit of showery rain – but any rain will tend to fade and become light. Down to around 8’C.

Likely a lot of cloud around on Monday. Plausible that it could break up in the afternoon into sunny spells, but uncertain – and more likely it stays on the cloudier side. Temperatures either around 11’C or around 16’C – depending on if the sun comes out. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 7’C.

By Tuesday we start to see a more westerly flow, though likely the Azores High nudges in.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts once more, but more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, and assuming so then temperatures around 13’C or so. However – something a bit sunnier (at times anyway) is possible, and temperatures around 16’C. A chilly night likely.

Wednesday stays dry – again uncertainty on cloud amounts, and I’d suggest a broad split between cloud and sunshine more likely, but it could easily be rather cloudy, or rather sunny. Again temperatures to match, more likely around 14’C or 15’C – but 12’C or 17’C possible if either on the cloudier or sunnier sides of the spectrum.

Likely more cloud for Thursday, with weather fronts starting to push in from the west – probably minimal amounts of rain, if any, still some sunshine possible and roughly around 15’C.

The somewhat more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend see the return of low pressure, with spells of wind and rain – and temperatures back on the cool side. I don’t have especially strong confidence on this outcome.

Still not seeing any effect of the sudden-stratospheric warming event in the models – my semi-educated guess was that it wouldn’t impact until April anyway. My assumption remains that we’ll see further cool weather in the first half of April at least.

Have a pleasant weekend, I should be back on Monday morning, all being well.…

A bit of a mixture of a week, chilly at first, warming up, then some showers/rain by the weekend.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

We start the week with the colder air still in place, high pressure to our north and an easterly – but this high pressure slowly gets pushed east by low pressure systems, which will turn the winds to a warmer direction. Notably wet over Spain/Portugal where low pressure is heading at first.

Monday will be mostly cloudy for much of the day, certainly the morning – some bright/sunny spells as the afternoon goes on. Still feeling pretty chilly at around 7’C in a more notable easterly breeze. Skies clearing overnight, a frost possible – down to around 0’C, though perhaps too much breeze for a frost.

Tuesday sees long spells of sunshine. The breeze now more south-easterly and temperatures picking up to around 11’C – still a bit of a chill. Mostly clear skies overnight, probably too much breeze for a frost, down to around 1’C.

By Wednesday the breeze is more southerly and temperatures respond as such. Good spells of sunshine, some high/mid-level cloud making it hazy at times but a pleasant spring day overall. Reaching around 16’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, around 5’C.

Thursday sees good spells of sunshine once more, some high cloud making it hazy at times and some fair-weather cloud, but overall another very pleasant day – and quite warm, 17’C, maybe 18’C. More in the way of high/mid-level cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Friday low pressure will be starting to make inroads.

Quite warm with hazy sunshine most likely for the morning, at least, reaching around 17’C or so. But showery rain arriving at some point, maybe the afternoon, maybe the evening. Showers possible overnight, but uncertain – around 10’C.

Details uncertain for the weekend, but broadly speaking low pressure will be close by, and there will be showers – if not general rain.

I think slightly more likely Saturday will be a day of sunshine and showers, probably fairly limited on the sunshine and plentiful on the showers. Somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

Broadly similar for Sunday, quite cloudy, some sunshine and a fair few showers – perhaps showery rain, and temperatures more likely between 11’C and 14’C.

I repeat that details are pretty sketchy right now for the weekend, but broadly expect showers.

Low confidence for next week – a return to warmth unlikely, likewise anything deeply unsettled unlikely. Perhaps more likely on the cool side once more.…

A few more fairly cold days, but becoming much milder again next week.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure to our west, and a cold north-easterly flow.

A bright start to Friday, quite a bit of cloud around. Cloud amounts tending to increase, still some sunny spells but more cloud overall, and a few showers popping up from mid-morning onwards, say a 70% chance of catching a couple – perhaps heavy. Fairly cold, 7’C at best in a north-easterly breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 1’C, a frost possible.

Saturday morning will see a fair amount of cloud, though some sunny spells. A small chance of a shower. Sunshine amounts tending to increase in the afternoon. Still pretty chilly but getting to around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny but cloud amounts will increase for a mostly cloudy day from around mid-morning. A small chance of a shower, maybe a little more sunshine by the end of the day. Still on the chilly side, 8’C or so. Quite cloudy overnight, some clear spells, the odd shower possible too. Down to around 4’C.

Monday starts on the cloudy side of thing, some brightness at times though. Probably it will become sunnier as the day goes on. Around 8’C or so, the breeze more notable than it has been. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable – down to around 0’C, give or take.

By Tuesday the breeze turns more south-easterly and we pick up a milder flow.

Long spells of sunshine most likely, and reaching around 10’C. A frost probable overnight, down to around 0’C – give or take.

By Wednesday we’ll be in a southerly flow, with air from North Africa. Generally sunny, a bit of cloud around and much milder at around 15’C. Ahhh spring again. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Thursday looks very pleasant, potentially some more high/mid-level cloud, but we should reach a reasonable 18’C, or close to.

More uncertainty by Friday, probably we see weather fronts start to push in, so more cloud (hazy sunshine?) and an increased chance of showers, though the showers may well hold off until overnight or even the next day. Around 16’C.

More likely next weekend is fairly unsettled, with showers or rain at times, and temperatures tracking back down to normal, say 12’C by Sunday.

There is a small chance that we hang onto something more pleasant though, and low pressure stays to our south-west.

Current expectations are for a more unsettled or at least changeable end to March and beginning of April. Still waiting to see how the sudden stratospheric warming event plays out – my best guess remains colder then normal at times to start April, warmer than normal later in April.

Have a good weekend!…

Well we deserved 10 days of sunshine and 5 days of semi-warmth. Back to winter for now, but not much in the way of rain – and some sunshine, if much colder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general set-up to start the week sees high pressure to our north-west, which allows a colder north-easterly flow to set up. The jetstream is much further south across the Mediterranean – it’s going to be notably wet in Portugal and Spain this week.

Today will be mostly cloudy with some occasional bits of rain – not amounting to much at all. A little brightness possible at times too. Still fairly mild at around 11’C in an easterly breeze. Again mostly cloudy overnight with occasional light rain, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy. It will brighten up somewhat, always a lot of cloud but there will be some bright/sunny spells. The odd light shower around too. Colder, 8’C or so in the north-easterly breeze. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a small chance of a wintry shower and down to roughly 1’C – a frost possible, but perhaps too much cloud and breeze.

By Wednesday the colder air will be much more entrenched. A day of sunny spells and showers, any showers early in the morning could potentially see some sleet/snow mixed in, afterwards more likely rain but still plausible that there could be a wintry mix, especially in any heavy showers. Around 6’C in the cold north-easterly breeze. Clear spells at first though an area of cloud and showers looks probable to spread south in the second half of the night – potentially a wintry mix. Down to around 1’C – a frost plausible if the showers miss us.

Thursday looks a cloudier day. Still some bright/sunny spells at times and a few showers around, though less likely than on Wednesday, and probably of rain should you catch one. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a frost likely, down to around -1’C or so.

Friday should be somewhat sunnier again, though plenty of cloud bubbling up and a few showers too, perhaps a wintry mix if you catch a heavy one, though more likely any showers are rain. Around 7’C in an easterly breeze. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible, but only if cloud stays away.

Synoptically not much change for the weekend – high pressure still to our north-west, low pressure still to our south.

It should be dry this weekend, some uncertainty on cloud amounts, depending on how close the low pressure to our south is, though I’d be hopeful of at least some sunshine each day – Sunday more so than Saturday on current expectations.

Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 7’C to 9’C, potentially feeling chillier in the breeze/wind, again depending on how close low pressure is to our south.

Low confidence for next week, but more likely than not temperatures increase – perhaps becoming quite warm once more. It’s roughly a 50/30/20 split in my head as to whether it becomes quite warm and pleasant, mild and somewhat unsettled, or some mixture of the two.

The sudden stratospheric warming event happened yesterday, so now we await to see the impacts – which tend to be 2-6 weeks from the event, and more often than not mean blocking highs in positions that bring northerly or easterly flows – similar positioning to this week, in fact. I doubt we’ll see any reaction in the models for a few days, at least.

Have a good week, I should be back on Friday morning most likely.…

A few more days of early spring warmth – winter is back next week.

Thanks to Cathy for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure centred over south-eastern Europe, but stretching all the way back to the UK, where we are in a warmer south-westerly flow. Low pressure is approaching, but will sink south towards Spain/France, rather than cross us directly.

Today sees more cloud than of late but it will generally be bright with hazy sunshine at times, tending to be more sunshine later this afternoon. Reaching 15’C, maybe 16’C – a small chance of the odd spot of rain but it should remain mostly dry. Skies clearing further overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday is another pleasant day – sunny to start though with some high cloud which will make it hazy at times, the high cloud tending to increase during the day, but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. Quite warm, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees good spells of sunshine, with some high cloud at times – more so in the afternoon. Again quite warm, 16’C to 17’C more likely but I wouldn’t rule out an 18’C or even a tad more. Some cloud overnight, a small chance of a shower later – roughly around 7’C.

Details a bit more uncertain for Monday – the flow turns more easterly though likely we stay in the mild conditions for another day, say 12’C to 14’C. More likely bright in the morning, more likely cloudier later with some showery rain – but developments currently uncertain. Overnight could be dry, could be wet – no idea yet. Though almost certainly becoming colder.

By Tuesday we are back in a cold north-easterly flow. I hope you didn’t put your winter clothes away.

Again details a bit uncertain but more likely on the cloudy side, especially in the morning – a chance of a shower or two, which should be of rain but I cannot rule out something wintry. Around 6’C but feeling colder in the wind. Frost possible overnight depending on cloud amounts.

I cannot really do detail any further into the future than this. We’ll certainly stay in the easterly flow and temperatures will be on the cold side for mid-March, say 5’C to 7’C more likely, perhaps a little more.

High uncertainty on cloud amounts, rain amounts and whether there will be any frost – if the skies clear overnight then frosts will happen. I cannot rule out sleet/snow falling either.

Next weekend is anyone’s guess right now.

Have a fun weekend, I should be back on Monday morning.…

Frosty and/or foggy starts but more sunshine to come, and temperatures ticking up. A few days of spring…though don’t expect it to last.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees high pressure in control – the jetstream is to the north taking low pressure systems far away from us, and also a low pressure over Portugal/Spain.

Early mist/fog patches will clear quite swiftly on Monday to leave long spells of sunshine. Maybe a bit of high cloud at times but pretty glorious otherwise. Reaching 10’C, maybe 11’C. Clear skies for much of the night, down to around -2’C and it will be frosty. Mist/fog patches forming by dawn – not everywhere.

Tuesday again starts with mist/fog patches in places – sunny from the off in others. Mist/fog will lift to leave long spells of sunshine and very little, if any cloud. Reaching around 11’C, maybe squeezing a 12’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud. A frost likely, down to around -1’C, mist/fog patches again possible towards dawn.

By Wednesday we’ll be picking up more of a south-westerly flow, so it will be milder. Again there will be early mist/fog in some places to clear, but otherwise we’ll see long spells of sunshine with little cloud, if any. Reaching 14’C, with a bit of a breeze. Clear skies overnight though probably no frost, down to around 2’C. Mist/fog patches less likely too, though still a small chance in a few spots by dawn.

For Thursday, our high pressure is more centred over the south-east of Europe, and we’ll have a southerly flow.

Again long spells of sunshine, though a little bit of cloud around – more so later in the afternoon. We should get to 15’C so feeling pretty spring-like. Cloud will thicken overnight, perhaps a splash of rain in the latter part, around 7’C.

Friday looks much cloudier, with a bit of showery rain, mostly in the morning. Perhaps some brightness/sunshine in the afternoon, but uncertain. Around 12’C. Further bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though rainfall totals pretty low, around 7’C.

The weekend is quite uncertain at this stage. It looks like low pressure over Spain/Portugal/western France will be driving somewhat warmer air through central Europe, which probably reaches us – so temperatures could easily be between 15’C and 17’C, though this is moderate confidence at best.

And the position of low pressure is uncertain, slightly more likely it is far enough away and we’ll see something fairly sunny though with some cloud at times, the slightly less likely outcome sees it a bit closer to the UK, and we’ll have something cloudier with some showers (not a washout by any means) and still some sunny spells possible.

Fairly high uncertainty for the week after, but high pressure close to our north seems a more likely outcome, temperatures back to average at best, but perhaps notably cold instead. Overnight frosts would be likely once more, and maybe mist/fog.

With regards to the sudden stratospheric warming event I mentioned in the seasonal forecast, it still looks likely to happen circa 10th March. So any time two weeks from there onwards we’d probably see the effects…cannot say I’m excited about the possible return to winter for late March or April, but hey ho…let’s see what happens. SSW events don’t always lead to colder weather in north-western Europe, just around 65% of the time.…

It’s the forecast that you’ve all been waiting for (well, most of you) – plenty of sunshine if still on the chilly side, at least for the first few days, and especially overnight. Spring starts tomorrow and I’ve got a reasonably spring-like forecast for you.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure building from the south-west – low pressure towards Spain/Portugal and the jetstream going over the top of the UK, though still quite strong.

Any early mist/fog/low cloud will quickly lift to leave good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up. Still pretty chilly though, 9’C at best. Clear spells for much of the night but mist/fog will tend to form towards dawn, though not necessarily everywhere. Frosty, down to around -2’C.

Saturday starts with mist/fog/low cloud for most, though there is a chance of being sunny from the off. It will gradually break up, with good spells of sunshine for all, and some fair-weather cloud bubbling up. The sun a bit hazier later in the day. 9’C, maybe 10’C, so still on the chilly side. A lot of high cloud for the first half of the night though this will sink south to leave clear skies later, frosty and down to around -1’C or so. A chance of some mist/fog patches by dawn.

Sunday may start with some mist/fog patches (less likely than previous two mornings) but they will lift to leave long spells of sunshine, with a bit of fair-weather cloud possible. Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C. Mist/fog again possible by dawn.

Monday sees early mist/fog/low cloud but again this lifts to good spells of sunshine, though likely with more high cloud than of late, as a very weak weather front moves down from the north-west. Around 9’C, maybe 10’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud at times, and again some mist/fog patches forming by dawn. Down to around -2’C and frosty.

By Tuesday we start to pull in a more south-westerly flow, which means milder.

Again some early mist/fog/low cloud patches in places to clear, then good sunny spells, though probably a bit hazier especially in the afternoon. Around 12’C. A frost less likely overnight, still a chance of some mist/fog patches forming, and down to around 1’C.

Wednesday again may have some mist/fog patches to clear but they will lift into long spells of sunshine. Around 13’C, maybe 14’C at a push so definitely feeling quite spring-like. Another fairly cold night, down to around 0’C – frost possible, as will be mist/fog patches by dawn.

Thursday again may see mist/fog/low cloud at first (not everywhere, as per every morning in this forecast), which should be followed by long spells of sunshine. The breeze more southerly and temperatures ticking up further – heck it could be the first “quite warm” day, 15’C, maybe 16’C. 16’C counts as “quite warm” in my book in March…not so come May.

There is a small chance that we cannot quite squeeze out that last pleasant day on Thursday, and low pressure arrives – but 90% likely we will.

This does mean that Friday and into next weekend probably sees low pressure arriving, with rain/showers at times, and temperatures back down a bit – towards 10’C, or so.

I shall try to do the spring forecast this weekend, depending on what time I can find. Have a pleasant weekend and enjoy the sunshine!…

An unsettled but mild start of the week – though tending to become drier later in the week.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

We start the week very much in westerly mode, with low pressure towards Iceland.

Outbreaks of rain to start on Monday, this will clear east by around late morning/lunchtime. This will be followed by sunny spells and scattered showers, perhaps heavy – say a 70% chance of catching one or two. Mild and breezy, 13’C. Clear spells at first overnight but cloud will build – perhaps some rain towards dawn, though will mostly be further south than here. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts fairly cloudy, perhaps a splash of rain. This will clear to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, quite a bit of cloud, and around a 30% chance of a shower. Cooler air around so reaching 9’C, maybe 10’C, and generally quite breezy. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud building later – down to around 2’C.

Wednesday sees a band of showery rain crossing, right from the start – perhaps arriving just before dawn. Cloudy with occasional showery rain is the theme, some heavy bursts possibly mixed in – a bit more in the way of sunshine from mid-afternoon onwards though showers will remain possible. Breezy and cool, around 9’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud around, down to around 2’C, give or take.

By Thursday, high pressure makes an attempt to build from the south-west (not something I was especially expecting previously).

Some sunny spells but likely more cloud overall. Temperatures still fairly low, 8’C, maybe 9’C – it is still winter, of course. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely, down to around -1’C – fog patches possible.

Friday starts sunny in places, foggy in others. The fog will lift to bring sunny spells, though quite a lot of fair-weather cloud bubbling up, especially for mid-afternoon. Around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely, down to around -1’C – fog patches possible.

Saturday and the first day of meteorological spring looks pleasantly sunny. The odd fog patch first thing will clear if you have one, then sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud in the afternoon, and a bit of high cloud floating around at times. 9’C, maybe squeezing a 10’C. Some cloud around overnight but more likely sufficient clear spells for a frost, down to roughly 0’C.

Sunday probably has more cloud around, some uncertainty this far away but I’d guess more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C.

High pressure should hang on into next week, and temperatures should tick up a little bit more, perhaps almost feeling like spring. Oooh! More confidence on the high pressure than the temperatures though, that will depend on favourable positioning of the high.

Probably this followed by a more unsettled spell, say later next week – but that’s 10 days away which is a very long time.…