You might not believe it if looking out of the window today, but it’s time to do my summer forecast – and I need a photograph.
Please.
Usual rules:
Must feature summer weather of some description – there is more than one type of summer weather, I try to use what matches the forecast.
Must be the local area.
Can be from any year…as long as it is summer and has weather.
Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this when posting on Facebook, which is totally fine, crack on. But I’m not going to use it unless it is landscape-orientated.
Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.
My life is easier if you add them to the Facebook post but you can also e-mail them.
Staying fairly unsettled and often on the cool side of things – though a couple of pleasant days mixed in.
Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.
So the general picture sees low pressure centred over Scotland and a westerly flow – with further areas of low pressure developing to our west and heading in. You could almost call it autumnal.
Today will see lots of cloud and lots of heavy showers, perhaps some thunder mixed in too – though not quite as potent as some of those on Tuesday gone. A bit of sunshine at times, quite windy and around 18’C. Showers will fade this evening, a mixture of cloud and clear spells follows – down to around 10’C.
Friday is a brighter day, with reasonable sunny spells though also quite a bit of cloud around. Some showers possible, though on the lighter side of the spectrum – and much fewer than on Thursday. Feeling cooler and still breezy, around 17’C. Cloud thickening in the evening with outbreaks of rain from roughly around midnight. Down to around 11’C.
Saturday is a mostly cloudy day with showery rain – not always raining, some brightness mixed in too. Tending to be more rain in the morning than afternoon, but not an exact science there. Around 17’C and breezy, perhaps notably windy later in the afternoon. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.
The wind direction changes on Sunday and we’ll briefly tap into warmer air again. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts – more likely rather cloudy but bright, but perhaps cloud thins enough for more in the way of hazy sunshine. Temperatures more likely around 20’C – but if cloud breaks more then it could be warmer. Still quite windy. Cloud thickening overnight – some rain possible by dawn, around 13’C.
By Monday we see low pressure still close by (ish) towards Iceland – close enough to control our weather.
Uncertain on timings but broadly speaking a cloudy day with rain crossing. Warmer air still around – so reaching around 18’C and quite windy still. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 8’C.
Tuesday is back to sunny spells and showers – temperatures around 17’C.
More showers or possibly a spell of general rain for Wednesday is the more likely outcome.
Where do we go from there? Well, this short unsettled spell which was well signposted (as was the end of May’s hot spell, though not to that extreme) for the beginning of June is starting to look a bit less short than expected.
There are both signs of high pressure building from the south-west with some very warm weather trying to spread up, but also further deep areas of low pressure (at least for the time of year) heading across from the west – so my best guess for late next week and into next weekend is broadly warmer, some sunny spells but also showers/rain on some days. Though it could just be warm/sunny or it could just be unsettled. Not really helpful is it?!
There definitely is the potential for a hot spell during the second half of the month, say somewhere between 13th and 25th. Dry and sunny weather is broadly more likely from mid-month onwards, though probably not every day. Suggestions of something more unsettled towards the end of the month (though still probably very warm).
I will try to get the summer forecast done in the next couple of days also.
A fairly unsettled week ahead with rain/showers at times. Yep, summer officially starts and the summer-like weather disappears. Not for long though.
Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.
The general set-up sees high pressure relaxing its control on our weather, with low pressure systems to the west moving in gradually.
Sunday won’t be too bad – quite a lot of cloud around but some sunny breaks or at least some hazy sunshine at times. Perhaps a shower but should be innocuous if you do catch one. Still some warmth around, reaching around 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, and around 13’C.
Monday starts bright with hazy sunshine. Gradually cloud amounts will increase from the west with rain arriving around late afternoon (though a shower before that is possible). Around 21’C and breezy. Showery rain this evening and overnight, quite heavy at times, perhaps occasionally very heavy. Around 13’C.
Tuesday sees plenty of cloud and lots of heavy showers from the off, possibly very heavy/torrential, hail and thunder both very possible too. Some occasional sunny spells. Around 18’C. Showers fading in the evening, fairly clear skies overnight – down to around 13’C.
Wednesday starts fairly cloudy but bright. Cloud will thicken from the west during the morning, with the odd spot of rain possible – more general showery rain from around lunchtime onwards, though often (not always) light/moderate. Around 17’C and quite windy. Most likely fairly cloudy overnight with the odd shower – though there is a small chance of a spell of heavy rain developing and heading our way overnight. Around 13’C or so.
By Thursday the next low pressure system arrives and is bang in control.
Another very showery day, lots of heavy showers, some could be very heavy, hail/thunder could be mixed in too. Some sunny spells in between. Windy, especially in showers and around 17’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight and cooler than it has been – down to around 8’C.
A bit of an improvement for Friday as a ridge of high pressure tries to build, more in the way of sunny spells, some cloud at times – probably still some showers around. Around 17’C and likely still breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight – down to around 8’C.
It’s a fairly close call for next weekend – high pressure should be building to our south-east and it should be close enough to keep weather fronts away from us in south-east England. Say around a 65/35 split in likelihoods.
Assuming so, then Saturday will be a reasonably pleasant day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – temperatures recovering to around 19’C, maybe 20’C.
Sunday then similar, but a tad warmer.
The slightly less likely outcome would see more in the way of cloud and some rain at times – but nothing too wet, still some sunshine at times.
For the week after, more likely high pressure is in control at least part of the time with some very warm sunshine – though whether it is back to a consistent settled spell or something more mixed with some sunny days, some showers days, is uncertain at present.
I’m confident on temperatures being above-average for June, or even well above-average.
Next full forecast will be on Thursday morning. Have a fun Sunday.
A few more hot days but then becoming unsettled – quite a change, coming after an extraodinary heatwave for the time of year – beating the existing May record by 2’C is quite something. One shudders to think what the temperature would have been with that set-up at the end of July.
So I’m back from Japan (very sad news) and still have only done pretty limited model analysis, so maybe it won’t be so accurate after 5-7 days again, though hopefully nothing noticeable.
Thanks to Joanna for the photograph (and to anyone’s who I haven’t used/thanked, had a few more than normal!).
The general set-up sees high pressure just to the east of the UK, again drawing up hotter air from the south, though not quite as hot as Monday/Tuesday. Respite is on the way for those that loathe the heat.
Thursday starts mostly sunny, some high cloud. During the afternoon a little feature will bring some more cloud and a small chance of a thundery shower, say a 15% chance – will be pretty isolated if they develop. Hot, reaching around 31’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and pretty warm too – down to around 17’C. Cannot totally rule out a shower towards dawn.
Friday starts with hazy sunshine, and it will be very warm. The cloud tending to thicken towards lunch and early afternoon, still bright but also perhaps a shower or two breaking out – will be hit and miss again. Then sunnier for late afternoon into the evening. Still quite hot, reaching around 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fresher feel too, down to around 12’C.
Saturday will be mostly sunny and hot once more, some high cloud around making it a bit hazy, some fair-weather cloud in the afternoon too – a very small chance of an afternoon shower, say 5% chance. Hot, around 28’C. Some high cloud overnight and tending to thicken towards dawn, down to around 15’C.
Sunday looks a bit more mixed as weather fronts start to push in, so more cloud than we’ve seen and a greater chance of some showers/showery rain developing, more so in the morning. But also some sunshine too, and no guarantee of any rain in your back yard per se – will still be hit and miss as to what develops. Warm, but fresher, around 22’C. Fairly clear skies at first overnight, cloud tending to thicken later – down to around 14’C.
By Monday we start to see low pressure edge closer from the west.
Showers or showery rain the most likely theme to the day, and temperatures still on the warm side – around 20’C. The potential for something notably heavy/thundery is there, but too early to say for sure – similar conditions likely overnight.
Tuesday looks like a day of some sunny spells and plenty of heavy/very heavy showers – thunder/hail possible. Around 19’C.
Wednesday (or maybe Tuesday night) then probably seeing more general rain and wind crossing – and temperatures nudging down further to say around 16’C.
Probably it remains unsettled for Thursday/Friday next week – maybe into next weekend though I’d slightly favour it settling down by then, say 60/40 odds on something more settled.
If it doesn’t settle down in time for next weekend, then most likely it will during the next week – the middle part of June tentatively again looks often dry and sunny, with very warm/hot conditions probably developing again.
I’ve just realised that the summer forecast is almost due, though I don’t know when I’ll get time to do it as need to do lots of catching up on life after a two week holiday! Might be a week or so until I get time to do it.
