Good morning, it’s spring forecast photograph request time!
Usual rules:
Must feature spring weather of some description – there is more than one type of spring weather, I try to use what matches the forecast.
Must be the local area.
Can be from any year…as long as it is spring and has weather.
Must be landscape-orientated, ie the width longer than the height. I know plenty of people ignore this when posting on Facebook, which is totally fine, crack on. But I’m not going to use it unless it is landscape-orientated.
Whoever’s photograph I choose will adorn the forecast and also be the cover photograph on Facebook for the next 3 months.
My life is easier if you add them to the Facebook post but you can also e-mail them.
I hope to write it early next week, but depends on work and stuff.
So apparently we had our first day of spring yesterday…alas work got in the way this time. But temperatures should be notably above average for much of the next 2-3 weeks so there are chances of a repeat. And also some cloud, rain, showers at times too.
Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.
We return to a westerly flow, there will be weather fronts but also ridges of high pressure too – and mostly we’ll be on the warmer side of the jetstream.
Today will be mostly cloudy with the odd bit of light rain at times. Becoming quite windy but staying mild, 13’C. Rain will gradually ease eastwards during this evening and overnight, generally light to moderate rain – nothing unusually heavy, and around 10’C.
Friday starts cloudy and damp, with bits and pieces of rain at times. Some bright/sunny spells poking through in the afternoon, perhaps as early as lunchtime – chance of some showers in the afternoon still though, more likely late afternoon. Again very mild, around 14’C and breezy at times. Fairly cloudy overnight with some occasional showery rain – down to around 6’C.
Some uncertainty on details for Saturday, but broadly the morning more likely cloudy with some showery rain, the afternoon brighter with some sunny spells. The uncertainty is mostly over the rain – more likely not much rain and what there is clearing by late morning/lunch, but a chance it could be more organised and persistent and last into early afternoon. Cooler air in the mix, 10’C at best. Clear skies at first overnight – clouding over later with rain probably arriving before dawn, but some uncertainty on the timing. Down to around 6’C.
Most likely Sunday starts with outbreaks of rain – there is a small chance that the weather front fades before arriving, but 90% or so likely there remains some rain. The rain should gradually fade, timing uncertain though broadly speaking we’d be looking at a fairly cloudy afternoon, some limited brightness, perhaps still some patchy light rain. Milder and becoming quite windy again, around 13’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.
By Monday we see low pressure to our north west and ridges of high pressure both close to our west, and our east.
Again some uncertainty but bright with hazy sunshine is the more likely general theme – a weather front will be trying to cross from the west but will get squeezed by both high pressure ridges as it does. Still mild, around 13’C. The weather front should arrive at some point, perhaps by the afternoon – more likely evening or overnight, and will bring a little rain.
Tuesday probably on the cloudier side with remnants of the weather front still around, some sunny spells possible, the odd light shower too. Around 11’C.
A fair chance of something quite warm and sunny spreading up for the south for next Wednesday/Thursday – still a little bit too tenuous to be confident on.
Maybe a weather front around next Friday (or late Thursday) – and dry/sunny is the more likely outcome for the first full weekend of March – no suggestion yet on temperatures with a broad range possible.
Generally I do expect temperatures for the first half of March to be notably above average, and for it to balance out as drier and sunnier than normal – so you can be hopeful of squeezing in some more 15’C+ days. Overnight frost and fog will be possible, depending on positioning of high pressure.
Annoyingly it looks like a sudden-stratospheric warming event might happen in early March, which if it is confirmed would lead to easterly and northerly flows more likely by late March and early April onwards.
That said, it isn’t the first time this year that one has been modelled – the previous modelling of one just dissipated, and we had one in early March last year…and look how spring turned out. The more likely outcomes in meteorology are just that, and less likely outcomes can happen.
Also annoying timing as it makes my spring forecast more uncertain!
Well there’s still some cloud and rain in the forecast, but some sunshine and a taste of spring too – our first 16’C day (perhaps a tad more).
Thanks to Christel for the photograph
So the general set-up sees low pressure systems to our north, with high pressure having built strongly over Spain/Portugal to our south, and trying to push a bit further north. Not entirely sure why I’m not packing my work laptop and booking a flight to Seville to enjoy a week of warm sunshine, but hey.
Anyway today starts cloudy with showery outbreaks of rain. This clears around mid/late morning and gradually it will brighten up with reasonable amounts of sunshine in the afternoon, just a small chance of a stray shower – say 10% chance. Very mild, 14’C, might even scrape 15’C, breezy too. Variable cloud amounts overnight, a stray shower possible – down to around 7’C.
Monday starts with some hazy sunshine but cloud will thicken from the west with some patchy rain in the afternoon – mostly light, but the odd heavier burst could be mixed in later. Mild and breezy, 13’C. Mostly cloudy in the evening and overnight, some patchy rain at first but mostly dry from late evening onwards. No lower than around 9’C.
Tuesday starts mostly cloudy. The cloud will gradually break up and the afternoon should be mostly sunny – very pleasant indeed, though some uncertainty as to when the cloud breaks up. Feeling mild in the southerly breeze, around 14’C – maybe a tad more. Clear skies overnight, perhaps some mist/fog patches by dawn – down to around 6’C.
By Wednesday the next low pressure system is ready to push across, but not before we’ve had a taste of spring.
Some mist/fog/low cloud possible at first, and it’s not impossible that it hangs on to spoil the first day of spring – but most likely (90% likely) the sun will be out all day with long spells of sunshine, and it will feel quite warm – 17’C would be feasible. Gosh I’m so excited, but why is it on my office day? Clear spells probably at first, cloudier later – perhaps some light rain by dawn and around 7’C.
Most likely Thursday will be on the cloudy side of things, some bright spells with hazy sunshine possible, also some light showery rain at times. Still very mild, 14’C or so. Rain likely crossing either in the evening or overnight.
More likely Friday is a day of sunshine and showers, breezy and we’ll have lost the warmish air mass – around 11’C or so.
Uncertain for next weekend – anything especially wet seems unlikely, some showery rain possible but also some decent dry spells, perhaps sunshine too. Around 11’C which is slightly higher than average.
Changeable conditions more likely to persist after – a mixture of weather fronts, showers and dry/sunny days, and temperature broadly a little above average more likely, though a couple of colder days could be mixed in. Rainfall amounts likely fairly low in total.
Have a pleasant Sunday and enjoy your early taste of spring!
Fed up of the cold? You’re in luck. Fed up of the cloud and rain? Maybe book a holiday…though it isn’t a total washout.
Thanks to Isabel who understands the photograph requirements too well!
The general overview sees low pressure centred over the English Channel this morning, with the fairly cold air in situ. But waiting behind is a build of high pressure – so higher pressure and milder air for the weekend, but with the jetstream still broadly heading in our direction, lots of cloud and some rain at times.
This morning starts cloudy, some mist in places, some patchy rain too. The rain will fade during the morning but the cloud will stay, and it will be pretty cold feeling in the breeze – around 5’C. Some spots of drizzle still possible this afternoon but mostly dry. The cloud will break up overnight for a time before thickening again before dawn, as the next weather front approaches – down to around 3’C. The odd spot of drizzle possible before dawn.
Friday morning starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a little hazy sunshine. Showery rain arrives around late morning/midday and will continue on and off during the afternoon, though I stress the showery nature. Becoming quite windy but also milder once the rain arrives – up to around 11’C. Perhaps a bit of sunshine to the end the day, depending on what time the weather front clears. Generally quite cloudy overnight, a shower or a spot of drizzle possible but dry most of the time. Around 9’C.
Saturday will be cloudy and quite windy – but also much milder, up to 13’C, maybe 14’C. Some bits of light rain/drizzle at times, perhaps something more organised in the way of showery light/moderate rain by late afternoon. Cloudy with some rain overnight – though often light and patchy in nature. Around 11’C.
Sunday morning will be cloudy with showery rain. Some uncertainty as to when this clears – perhaps by early afternoon with some sunshine following, or perhaps it continues until the evening. Still windy but still very mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud – a shower possible in the breeze, and down to around 8’C.
By Monday we are still in the same general pattern, high pressure trying to push north but the Atlantic is more in control.
We should at least see some sunny spells on Monday, a fair bit of cloud too – though with temperatures around 12’C or so it should be semi-pleasant. Some rain possible in the evening/overnight though quite a bit of uncertainty at this stage on the track – it could easily be further north.
The more likely outcome for Tuesday is that we are between weather fronts, and still importing this very mild air, so a day of hazy sunshine and around 13’C or so – not quite a taste of spring (for my standards) but not too far away. Not 100% confident – it could be cloudy and wet instead.
Probably we keep the very mild air for Wednesday – weather fronts trying to push across by this stage but uncertain on conditions.
Then by Thursday we start to lose the mild air, by Friday and into next weekend it’s likely pretty chilly once more. Otherwise fairly mixed conditions, rain probable Thursday – drier Friday/Saturday, some showers possible, then maybe rain by Sunday. But this is 10 days away so pretty uncertain on day to day details – but think changeable, some wet days, some sunny days, and you’ll get the general vibe.
And that’s the more likely pattern to start March, though perhaps more stress on the dry/sunny days than the wet days.
