Monday 15th August 2022

The breakdown has begun – and we should all see some downpours in the next couple of days.

Thanks to James for the photograph – I do actually have a suitable photograph saved ready for when the sunshine stopped.

Scattered heavy showers this evening – possibly with a little thunder, possibly some torrential rain should you catch a shower. Fairly cloudy overnight so it remains warm, and now a bit humid too – likely no lower than 18’C. A shower possible by dawn.

Tuesday sees a kind of slack low pressure loosely developed over NW Europe, including the UK.

Hazy sunshine to start the day, with the odd shower possible. From around lunchtime onwards, heavy showers breaking out widely – torrential downpours easily possible, thunder/lightning possible, a small chance of hail. More likely you’ll catch at least a couple – but some places could stay dry (or mostly dry). Catch a particularly torrential downpour, and localised flooding will be possible. Still quite hot and humid, reaching around 26’C – give or take. Showers still possible in the evening, though less likely and less likely to be so heavy. Fairly cloudy overnight – and towards dawn it looks like heavy/very heavy and possibly thundery showers may break out more widely – some uncertainty on this though. Another fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Wednesday has some uncertainty – a band of heavy/very heavy showers/showery rain will probably be somewhere over the south of England, thunder possible – and this will erratically and slowly move south-east so becoming drier as the day goes on. Most likely this includes the local area, but there is a small chance this band develops further south and we end up with a mostly cloudy day instead. Temperatures around 21’C, give or take. Mostly cloudy overnight – a shower possible but not likely. Down to around 15’C.

Thursday sees some pretty decent sunny spells – though hazy from around lunchtime, and a fair amount of fair-weather cloud too. We should reach around 25’C. Cloudy overnight with a weather front likely to push through, though some uncertainty on this. The more likely outcome does see some heavy showery rain overnight with it clearing by dawn, though perhaps instead it moves across more slowly, with only some bits of showery rain left by time it arrives – say around dawn. Another fairly warm night, around 17’C.

Friday likely starts cloudy, depending on how the overnight weather front progressed – if it progressed slowly then there may be some showery rain in the morning too. Sunny spells will follow, and temperatures up to around 26’C – give or take and depending on how quickly that weather front clears. Mostly clear skies overnight, and finally a much fresher night, down to around 12’C.

By Saturday we have the Azores High pushing in from the south-west again, but the jetstream showing more life to our north.

For Saturday it means decent spells of sunshine in the morning, though more cloud at times in the afternoon – temperatures around 23’C. Cloud thickening overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday is uncertain, but the more likely outcome sees rain spreading across from the west – yes, a proper band of rain. Windy, warmish and humid too.

Next week likely starts very warm/quite hot, though uncertain otherwise – I’d guess a mixture of sunny spells and showers.

Growing suggestions that high pressure settles things down in time for the Bank Holiday weekend – far from certain but the more likely outcome. Temperatures more likely very warm/quite hot – but proper hot very plausible once more. Possibly with some thundery showers at some point.

Generally I still think changeable conditions more likely towards the end of August and beginning of September, but overall balancing out at hotter, sunnier and drier than normal.…

Monday 15th August 2022 – Shower/Thunderstorm Chances

As is normally the case, the thundery breakdown is difficult to predict in detail. But it is starting.

I don’t think we are best placed today for showers or thunderstorms – they could feasibly break out anywhere in the UK, but I’d favour eastern coastal regions, and much of the west/north of the UK as having the better chances today.

That said, I’d still suggest around a 30% chance today of catching a shower – which could easily be thundery. Maybe it would just be some large spots of rain, maybe it would be a torrential downpour – or something in between. Catch a torrential downpour, then localised flooding will be possible.

The more likely time to catch one may be early afternoon when sea breeze convergence looks possible to be favourable in our area – or during the evening. Late afternoon less likely, but certainly possible.

Of course, a 30% chance of catching a shower means a 70% chance of staying dry, and temperatures will reach around 30’C or so, assuming sufficient sunshine – and there will be sunshine for all, albeit hazy at times.

Really, it will be a case of watching the skies and the radar/lightning detector. I can give you my analysis of the chances, as I have done, as can others – but we won’t really know until we see the clouds going up – if they do.

Tuesday and Wednesday should have higher chances of showers/downpours/thunder – full update this evening.…

Thursday 11th August 2022

I read earlier that a drought may be officially declared tomorrow. So I guess it is ironically appropriate that finally there is a chance of some heavy showers next week.

Alas, though showers will break out – the nature of showers means that some places could miss out. And heavy showers onto such dry ground isn’t ideal – the ground is so dry that if we catch any particularly torrential downpours, the rain will run off and bring the potential for localised flooding.

We should get some showers, we could get a thunderstorm – but details still to be determined as to how widespread the showers will be next week.

Until then – very hot and sunny.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies and a warm night, down to around 18’C.

High pressure remains in charge for Friday.

Glorious sunshine all day and very hot, reaching 34’C or so in a notable easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and another warm night, likely no lower than 19’C for most.

Saturday sees glorious sunshine almost all day – though a little bit of fair-weather cloud will likely bubble up later in the afternoon. Very hot, 34’C, maybe 35’C. High cloud moving up from the south in the evening and overnight, which will keep temperatures up overnight – probably no lower than 20’C for most.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though there will be high cloud at times which may make the sunshine hazy – notably in the afternoon, some more fair-weather cloud may also bubble up in the afternoon. I cannot totally rule out a shower for late afternoon or evening, but very unlikely. Very hot, around 34’C. Another warm night with high/mid-level cloud at times, probably no lower than 20’C.

By Monday we have low pressure developing broadly somewhere over the southern half of the UK.

Details become more sketchy from here, but broadly, hazy sunshine in the morning, some scattered heavy showers, possibly thundery, developing in the afternoon. An educated guess would suggest around a 30% chance of catching one or two. Still on the hot side, and humid too, somewhere between 27’C and 30’C. Some clear spells overnight and a bit less warm, roughly down to 18’C.

Tuesday is similarly tricky. Still on the hot and humid side, reaching somewhere between 26’C and 29’C. Heavy showers, possibly thundery will break out in places over England, though how widespread and how likely we are to get any is uncertain. Put it down as a 50% chance, if you wish. Appreciate this isn’t too helpful, but until we know how the low pressure will develop, details on showers will remain uncertain. The shower chance remains overnight and it should be feeling fresher, say 15’C or so.

Wednesday will be notably fresher, with temperatures closer to 24’C or so. Heavy showers still possible, though more likely in the morning as the low pressure (probably) sinks further south.

The more likely outcome for Thursday sees some cloud, some sunshine and the odd shower. Temperatures roughly around 24’C. Though fairly low confidence.

Low confidence for Friday and into next weekend. The slightly more likely outcome sees low pressure fairly close to our north, with some showers at times and average temperatures. The slightly less likely outcome sees high pressure spread up from the south/south-west once more – with increased sunshine and temperatures. Close call at the moment, need to get through a few more days before it can be called.

I still think the more likely outcome for the latter part of August and beginning of September is changeable, though sunshine and very warm/quite hot weather somewhat more dominant than showery phases. And still chances of short hot/very hot spells.

Enjoy the sunshine if you can bear the heat, and good luck in the shower/downpour lottery next week.…

Monday 8th August 2022

Heatwave. But you know this already.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, down to around 14’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure in charge – stretching all the way from the Azores to Scandinavia – a remarkably similar set-up to August 1976. And very similar weather.

Long spells of sunshine for most of the day, a little bit of high cloud in the morning, and some fair-weather and high cloud later in the day. Hot, 29’C, maybe 30’C. A bit of an easterly breeze though. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Wednesday sees glorious sunshine all day. Hot, 30’C, maybe 31’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 16’C.

Thursday sees glorious sunshine all day and those temperatures continue to tick up, 32’C seems feasible in an easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine all day. A little bit of high cloud possible later in the day, but otherwise glorious – and a shade hotter, 33’C looks very achievable – despite the notable easterly breeze. Not often we get a hot easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a warm night, no lower than 19’C.

Saturday sees long spells of sunshine again. A little bit of cloud possible in the afternoon, likely very hot and probably still breezy, reaching around 34’C, maybe 35’C or so – though I wouldn’t be surprised with anything between 31’C and 36’C. A very, very small chance of a shower later in the day. A bit of cloud overnight and likely no lower than 19’C.

Sunday is more uncertain. It looks like low pressure is going to develop over France and head north.

What it means on the ground is uncertain – it will depend on the timing of any features that develop within the low pressure, and how it develops. Broadly speaking likely still hot, somewhere between 26’C and 36’C, with the latter half of that range more likely. Probably at least some sunshine – perhaps still sunny all day, though more likely at least somewhat hazy. And then add on an unknown chance of some thundery showers breaking out.

Next week likely starts hot, possibly humid, but also with some heavy showers or thunderstorms around.

By midweek it should be much fresher – possibly rather autumnal by the end of the week and into the weekend, with showers, rain and wind likely at times – with some sunny spells too. Not especially high confidence on that yet though.

Is that the end of summer? Probably not.

I think things more likely changeable for late August and into early September, but generally very warm or quite hot – short hot/very hot spells possible. But also some short cooler spells, with some showers should be mixed in.

Enjoy the glorious sunshine whilst you can…or be excited about the prospect of rain…whatever makes you happy. I intend on enjoying both!…

Friday 5th August 2022

Looking for some more hot, sunny weather? Well, this is for you. And if you want some rain? Maybe…maybe in 10+ days time.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, a little high cloud. Temperatures down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees high pressure in charge, situated just to the south-west of the UK – and it ain’t going anywhere for a while.

Long spells of sunshine all day, a bit of high cloud at times, and a bit of fair weather cloud later in the day. Very warm, 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, and temperatures down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine in the morning. A bit of cloud drifting down from the north in the afternoon, but still likely plenty of sunny spells. Quite hot, 26’C, perhaps a shade more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Similar story for Monday. Long spells of sunshine for the morning, some cloud developing for the afternoon but still a reasonable amount of sunshine. Temperatures up another notch, 27’C, maybe a tad more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Tuesday sees long spells of hot sunshine. A little bit of fair weather and high cloud at times, otherwise reaching around 28’C or a shade more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains fully in control – stretching from the Azores, through much of Europe and into Russia.

Long spells of hot sunshine all day, and temperatures increasing further – 30’C, perhaps 31’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 16’C.

Thursday sees long spells of sunshine all day. Hot, around 31’C, give or take a couple. Clear skies overnight, down to around 17’C.

By Friday, positioning of the high pressure becomes a little more uncertain and so do temperatures. Likely long spells of sunshine all day, temperatures more likely in the range of 30’C to 34’C – but I wouldn’t rule out a few either way, and yes, that does mean high 30s is possible once more.

The more likely outcome for Saturday keeps it hot and sunny, somewhere broadly in the range of 28’C to 33’C. Though there is a chance of something less hot with an easterly wind developing and perhaps some cloud – though also there is a small chance that we are recording out hottest ever August temperature. One to watch. I wouldn’t totally rule out a shower…very, very low chance though – a lower chance than breaking the August record, which is just so summer 2022.

More uncertainty by Sunday – perhaps the slightly more likely outcome is something cloudier and very warm/quite hot, though there are many options possible, from a continuation of hot and sunny, or instead very hot conditions, or instead cooler conditions – there’s even small chances of a shower or two.

Uncertain for the next week – and for the rest of August, though tentative suggestions that the jetstream digs south at some point, which would lead to low pressure being closer to the UK than of late, and the chance of some rain/showers at times, perhaps thunderstorms.

Though also, it could lead to a plume of hot air spreading up from Spain.

So, arguably the remainder of August is more likely changeable – some cooler than normal weather possible at times, some hotter than normal weather probable at times (with the chance of breaking records), and a mixture of sunshine, cloud, showers and maybe even some old school wind and rain.

Looking further ahead, a drier than normal autumn is expected, though perhaps September may come close to average rainfall. A warmer than normal autumn is likely overall too.

I’ll try to get back to the usual Monday/Thursday cadence next week! Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 2nd August 2022

Becoming less hot and humid, but staying mostly dry…mostly.

Thanks to Mandy for the photograph.

Sunny spells this evening, clear spells at first tonight though cloud building later – another humid and fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy as a weak weather front slowly pushes across – we might even get a little light rain. Sunny spells will follow for the afternoon as the weather front breaks up. Humid and fairly hot, 27’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and fresher too, down to around 14’C.

Thursday sees fresher air creeping down from the north-west.

Spells of hazy sunshine in the morning, the cloud somewhat thicker from around lunchtime but still some spells of pleasant hazy sunshine. Very warm, 24’C but feeling somewhat fresher. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Friday is back to long spells of sunshine, with some fair weather cloud. Temperatures around 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees long spells of sunshine. Temperatures around 25’C – give or take. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine. Temperatures around 26’C – give or take.

High pressure will be very much in charge next week.

Sunshine likely, and temperatures probably on the hot side, low to mid 30’s are very possible – with an outside chance of it becoming exceptionally hot again. Rain is unlikely next week – at most maybe a weak weather front.

Tentative suggestions starting to appear that there might be some showers for the second half of August, perhaps as early as next weekend. Though I still expect the second half of August to be warmer/hotter than normal overall.

Next forecast will be on Friday. Bored of summer yet?!…

Saturday 30th July 2022

There’s actually a bit of rain in the forecast! Though generally it remains quite hot with some sunshine at times.

Thanks to Clare for the photograph.

This morning will be bright with spells of hazy sunshine. The afternoon generally cloudier, perhaps a light shower but most places remain dry – some hazy spells of sunshine still possible, especially towards the evening. Quite hot, 26’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, some occasional showery rain from late evening onwards. A warm and humid night, down to around 18’C.

Sunday morning looks mostly cloudy with some occasional showery rain. Some sunny spells in the afternoon, but a few scattered showers too, possibly on the heavy side. Very warm, 25’C, perhaps a tad more and feeling humid too. Fairly cloudy and fairly warm overnight, the odd shower still possible, around 17’C.

For Monday, the Azores High will try to ridge in once more to settle things down.

Quite a bit of cloud around at times, but also some sunny spells. Showers less likely, but one or two still possible. Quite hot, around 26’C, give or take. A cloudy, warm and humid night – probably no lower than around 19’C. Some occasional showery rain possible – though most of the rain should stay to our north.

Tuesday starts cloudy as the weather front slowly and erratically sinks south – bringing cloud but also some showery rain. It should break up to give some sunny spells at times in the afternoon (not certain), but also at the same time we should import some hotter air from France. On the hot side but temperatures will depend on afternoon sunshine amounts – somewhere between 27’C and 32’C, and feeling humid once more. Another warm and humid night, and probably rather cloudy, around 18’C.

Wednesday probably starts cloudy, and probably becomes sunny as the day goes on. The odd shower possible. Some uncertainty on temperatures, but likely on the hot side, say between 27’C and 30’C. Somewhat fresher air should arrive overnight…though maybe not until Thursday.

Thursday will be somewhat fresher, with high pressure close to our west and the yucky humidity pushed away…at least somewhat so.

Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. Very warm, perhaps quite hot, somewhere between 25’C and 27’C.

Friday will probably be similar, some sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures down a touch to around 24’C.

Next weekend is somewhat uncertain. High pressure should be close to the UK – but positioning is uncertain. One possibility is that it could be over the UK, which would mean good spells of sunshine, very warm/quite hot – but another possibility is that it could be further west/north-west, allowing a more north-easterly flow with some cloud and showers – and somewhat disappointing temperatures.

Drier then normal conditions are likely to dominate for much of August, probably a few more showers than July – and perhaps more likely something changeable towards the end of August, though very weak signals. Heatwave conditions will be possible through the middle third of August.

Appreciate that the forecasts have got a little out of kilter due to my recent busy life – I’m expecting a post-celebratory hangover on Monday from watching England beating Germany in the football, so maybe I’ll be on Tuesday/Friday schedule next week.

We’ll see. Enjoy the weekend and the bits of showery rain.…

Tuesday 26th July 2022

High pressure is trying to build from the west, but it isn’t completely plain-sailing – some cloud at times and even the odd shower.

Thanks to Jo for the marvellous photograph.

For those sending photographs via Facebook messages, it does seem to have fixed itself, so you can revert to using Facebook to send them – or you can e-mail them to – whichever suits you!

One or two evening showers dotted around but most places staying dry, clear spells overnight and down to around 14’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure loosely in control over the UK.

It isn’t the strongest build of high pressure ever, and there will be plenty of cloud, some sunny spells – a few scattered showers, say a 30% chance of catching one. Warm, 22’C. Fairly cloudy and fairly warm overnight, down to around 16’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though the cloud thin enough most of the time to allow some hazy sunshine through. It should be dry – but I cannot rule out a shower. Very warm, 24’C. Still rather cloudy overnight though tending to break up towards dawn, 14’C.

Friday looks like seeing more in the way of sunshine, and temperatures getting into the hot category too. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, especially around lunchtime, but a much more summer-like day. Around 27’C. Some high cloud overnight keeping things on the warm side, down to around 17’C.

Saturday sees a weak weather front cross the country. A little uncertainty on timing – it will probably start sunny/hazy and quickly become very warm – the weather front more likely crossing during the middle or latter part of the day bringing mostly cloud but perhaps a little patchy rain. Some sunny spells again later, depending on how late the weather front arrived. The uncertain timing means maximum temperatures are uncertain – but somewhere between 23’C and 28’C.

Details sketchy for Sunday but something along the lines of variable cloud, some sunny spells and a few scattered showers is the more likely outcome. Arguably more cloud likely than sun overall. Temperatures somewhere between 24’C and 28’C…decent enough weather for football coming home?

Next week more likely sees high pressure weakly in control – likely quite hot, probably quite cloudy – at least some days, with the odd shower. An outside chance of it being briefly very hot in midweek.

The more likely outcome for next weekend, obviously 10+ days away so take with a huge pinch of salt, is for it to be sunnier but a little less hot, closer to warm/very warm. But as I said…10+ days away.

Potential for very hot conditions to return through the middle third of August, but this is a long way away. One to keep an eye on but only very tentative signals at this stage.

Next full forecast will be…erm…Saturday? Time to go watch the Lionesses.…

Monday 18th July 2022

Well we didn’t quite beat records today. It looks like the UK maximum was 38.1’C (subject to confirmation), and Reading University seems to have recorded a maximum of 35’C.

Tomorrow will be hotter.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph – didn’t expect to see a zebra grazing near Reading, but hey, times have changed.

This evening remains hot and sunny, otherwise mostly clear skies overnight – rural locations may get down to 20’C, urban locations closer to 23’C. The overnight UK record temperature will be broken, almost certainly.

Tuesday sees the low pressure approach that has caused the exceptional heat to be pumped this far.

Long spells of sunshine during the morning and most of the afternoon, and exceptionally hot – 37’C should be reached, perhaps 39’C…an outside chance of 40’C but I think we are too far west. By late afternoon, a band of cloud and the odd isolated shower will cross – an outside chance of a thundery downpour, but more likely just a few large spots of rain, or just cloud – this will begin the process of de-hotting, and the evening will be less hot than Monday’s was. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud, a small chance of a shower – down to around 18’C. Phew.

A bit of uncertainty for Wednesday as the low continues to push through and tries to clear the hot, dry air. Some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and likely at least some scattered thundery showers developing – how widespread is uncertain, we may miss them all, but also there may be a few downpours. On the hot side still, and more humid, around 28’C but very give and take – will depend on how much sunshine there is. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C.

For Thursday, the Azores High builds once more across the UK – so we’ll be back to sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, potentially rather cloudy over the lunch period. Around 26’C, give or take. A lot of high/mid level cloud overnight – maybe a shower. Around 16’C.

Friday looks like seeing a small area of low pressure over France, which brings some uncertainty to our forecast – possible that there will be some heavy showers breaking out, but if and the extent is impossible to forecast right now. Otherwise, some sunny spells, variable cloud, around 24’C.

Saturday sees the shower risk reduced – likely more in the way of sunny spells though some cloud at times too. Temperatures back up – 27’C should be achieved, maybe more.

Sunday sees low pressure approach the UK from the west – some uncertainty but more likely it stays to our north-west, and causes hotter air to be pumped up. So more likely, long spells of sunshine with temperatures up to around 31’C. But the possibility of low pressure crossing the UK and bringing rain cannot yet be discounted – though with probabilities of 85% that it is hot and sunny.

A chance of showers to start next week – temperatures uncertain, anywhere from 24’C to 35’C.

Midweek onwards looks more likely to see the Azores High stretch across the UK once more, temperatures roughly in the range of 23’C to 28’C, with decent spells of sunshine. Far from guaranteed though, and maybe the shower risk is greater than it has been.

Right, that’ll do. I’m away for a very long weekend, so no full forecast until next week – probably on the Tuesday evening. Any tips for Copenhagen, feel free to comment!…

Friday 15th July 2022

Record-breaking heat is around the corner.

Firstly, I would like to take a moment to appreciate the technological progress which has led to this forecast – the models continually incrementally improve over time, as more data points are added and the models themselves are improved upon.

Two weeks ago, they first suggested 40’C for the UK – I was shocked. I nearly posted here but I try to avoid hype posts – especially considering models do suggest all kinds of crazy weather in the future as they try to work out the solutions.

Yet the model runs kept coming showing these crazy temperatures – I’d never in 15+ years of watching weather models every day, seen 40’C forecast – you could say that in every respect this is unprecedented. We don’t use that word enough nowadays. More runs, more different models – all kept showing this crazy scenario.

And here we are. It kind of reminds me of the Beast From The East, as that was similarly well signalled weeks in advance – in fact, in my summer forecast that I issued at the beginning of June, I mentioned the possibility of “unusually hot weather” for mid-July – and I only glean this from weather models and data.

It really is a “perfect” set-up for extreme heat, from the exceptionally hot air over north Africa, to the unusually warm sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean, our own sea surface temperatures, low soil moisture levels over Spain/France – if you had to create a background set-up for record-breaking heat, you’d create the current background.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 13’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over the UK – and the low pressure to the west of Portugal/Spain acting as the heat pump, starting to send the heat our way.

Long spells of sunshine all day. A little high cloud but otherwise glorious. Fairly hot, reaching around 28’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine. A little bit more high cloud but generally pretty glorious. Hot, 30’C, maybe a tad more. A warm night, no lower than 18’C.

Monday sees the exceptionally hot air in place and with long spells of sunshine all day, temperatures easily reaching 35’C – though anything up to 40’C is possible, with 38’C being my current more likely estimate. Scorchio. There is a high chance that the UK temperature record will go – somewhere between Cambridge and South Yorkshire, stretching east into East Anglia is the more likely area.

Overnight looks exceptionally warm – and likely record-breaking for the highest minimum temperature ever – I think the record is 23.1’C – London may well not dip below 26’C, Reading probably having a minimum around 23’C, though perhaps those figures might be higher.

Tuesday is more uncertain as the low from the west of Portugal/Spain will be approaching – and it’s arrival will feature a notable…de-hotting. Yeah not a word, but I cannot use cooling.

Before it arrives, temperatures will shoot up – peaking somewhere between 35’C and 40’C before lowering as the day goes on – depending on the timing of the low pressure system. By evening, it should be notably less hot, still hot – just normal. And there will be some cloud around, perhaps a little rain, perhaps a thundery downpour. Down to around 17’C overnight, the odd shower possible.

Details a little sketchy for Wednesday, but broadly some cloud and a chance of showers in the morning, probably sunnier for the afternoon. Around 25’C, give or take. A delightful 13’C overnight.

By Thursday, we most likely see the Azores High building once more – our summer friend.

Sunny spells, some cloud around, temperatures around 25’C or so.

Friday will be similar, sunny spells, some cloud at times, and roughly around 26’C – give or take a couple. It does look like low pressure will be developing over France and this may be close enough to trigger a shower – though chances still small at this stage.

The more likely outcome for next weekend keeps the weather similar, sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and quite hot, say 26’C or so.

I wouldn’t totally rule out something more showery, or something hotter – or indeed less warm.

And that should be the general trend for the rest of July – very warm/quite hot, sunny spells though suggestions that shower chances should increase towards the end of July and to start August. Anything very hot is unlikely, though cannot be ruled out.

I had been expecting a rather mixed August, though with low confidence, and also with high pressure around slightly more often then not.

Now things are trending to drier, hotter and probably sunnier than normal, with high pressure likely to dominate for quite a chunk of the month. Positioning will be key, as always, to sunshine amounts and temperatures – a reload of exceptional heat will be possible with the background set-up that Europe has.

Well, I wish you a good weekend – apologies if you saw my Dall-E Mini reaction of Boris Johnson eating traffic cones earlier on Facebook, it seems it is much easier to post on this page by mistake since Facebook’s “upgrade”, instead of my personal profile. Expect more mistakes at some point.

Next forecast should be Monday evening, assuming I’ve coped ok with the heat!

Good luck.…