Monday 22nd July 2024

Another mixed week ahead, but some warm sunshine in the mix at times, and perhaps something more settled by the weekend.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

So the general picture keeps the jetstream fairly south, but weaker than it has been – and associated low pressure systems are also weaker affairs. High pressure remains to our south-west, and the hottest air in Europe is now over Spain instead of south-east Europe, which is perhaps an early signal of a pattern change.

Monday will be mostly cloudy, especially this morning with bits of mostly light rain/drizzle though mostly dry. A bit more sunshine in the afternoon, but still a fair amount of cloud likely. Reaching around 22’C this afternoon. Fairly cloudy overnight, a cluster of showers likely moving through in the latter part of the night, and around 16’C.

Tuesday starts on the cloudy side, with some scattered showers, perhaps heavy. Gradually things will improve, the the afternoon becoming sunnier and warmer, and showers unlikely. Very warm, 24’C. Some high/mid-level cloud spreading across in the evening and overnight, around 14’C.

Wednesday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, perhaps bubbling up enough for a shower in the early afternoon, but no more than a 20% chance of catching one. Very warm once more, 25’C, maybe 26’C. Cloud thickening from the west overnight, perhaps a shower before dawn, down to around 15’C.

Thursday sees low pressure closer to the UK, and a weather front will cross the country during the day. At some point, more likely in the afternoon, a spell of rain, perhaps heavy, will spread across. Cloudy with showers possible either side of the main area of rain. Around 21’C. Clear spells spreading across overnight, down to around 14’C.

Some uncertainty on details for Friday, more likely a reasonable day either way, but uncertainty on sunshine/cloud amounts, and also temperatures – more likely around 22’C or so, but a chance we can briefly tap into some continental heat, so around 26’C is plausible. A small chance of a shower.

Saturday and particularly Sunday likely sees a stronger build of high pressure from the south-west.

Saturday more likely is fair with sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and on the warm side – however the continental heat will likely have triggered some thundery downpours in France/Belgium, and this may bring more cloud or perhaps rain on Saturday, but this is only a low chance. Say 80/20 in favour of a pleasant day.

Sunday I have fairly full confidence will be a pleasant day with good spells of sunshine, and some bits of cloud. On the warmer side, say 23’C to 26’C more likely.

Broadly speaking, two more likely outcomes for next week.

One would be high pressure settling over, or close to the UK, with plenty of very warm/quite hot sunshine – nothing excessive heat wise but up to 28’C possible as the week warms up, sometimes some cloud in the mix, perhaps a weak weather front at some point.

The other would be high pressure heading to our east, with us tapping into fairly extreme heat over Spain, briefly, to give a short hot/very hot spell, followed by thunderstorms/rain, and then generally continuing changeable.

Of course, maybe something else happens, but I’m fairly confident high pressure will be more on the scene than it has been, for early August.

I’ll be back either Thursday or Friday, I wish you all a respectable week.