Friday 4th October 2024

A fairly changeable week ahead, with an eye on what Hurricane Kirk does, which will track towards western Europe next week – as an ex-hurricane, of course, but could still pack a meteorological punch.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

The general synoptic picture sees a ridge of high pressure holding on, with low pressure systems slowly edging east during the weekend.

Any early mist/fog patches will clear this morning to leave sunny spells, plenty of fair-weather cloud, and gradually more high/mid-level cloud from the west as the afternoon goes on, making the sunny spells hazier. Reaching around 16’C. Some cloud at first though this will tend to break up to leave clear spells later in the night, down to around 5’C.

Saturday looks a reasonably pleasant day. Plenty of sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud around, and some more high cloud moving in from the west in the afternoon to make it hazier. Around 16’C again. Cloud continues to thicken overnight as a weakening weather front crosses – likely some showery rain, but dry most of the time. Around 11’C.

Sunday starts rather cloudy and damp, some bits of light rain/drizzle around. It will slowly brighten up, some sunny spells for the afternoon – before another weather front arrives, this time bringing a short spell of heavy/very heavy rain. Timing a bit uncertain, late afternoon at the earliest, more likely through early/mid evening, lasting an hour or two, most likely – a small chance of hail/thunder. Some warmer air before this arrives, reaching around 18’C. Mostly clear spells overnight, though a shower possible closer to dawn, around 11’C.

By Monday, our low pressure edges closer, with Hurricane Kirk (still likely a hurricane) approaching further back.

Monday is broadly themed as sunshine and showers, probably heavy – though whether there are few showers or plentiful showers is uncertain at this stage, though plentiful looks more likely. Around 17’C and breezy, especially in showers. Showers still possible overnight, around 12’C.

Tuesday continues this theme, some sunny spells, some heavy showers – again uncertain as to whether few or plentiful at this stage. Around 18’C and breezy.

From here details are more uncertain, and it will depend on how ex-hurricane Kirk interacts with our low pressure system, and the jetstream.

More likely it will head to either France or southern England, likely bringing spells of heavy rain and possibly strong winds, though also a slightly more tropical feel to the air.

If the centre tracks over southern England, there is the potential for gales and some damaging gusts, if it tracks over France then winds won’t be a story.

Timing of arrival uncertain – but either Wednesday or Thursday.

Most likely, a colder northerly flow will follow by either Friday or Saturday, though tending to be drier – and drier conditions more likely to follow the week after, though with low confidence.

Enjoy your weekend, I have a day off to wander around Budapest today…alas it is still raining and has been since Wednesday!