Welcome to my Autumn 2022 weather forecast.
Finally it’s time to cool down after a boiling hot summer – I think summer 2022 will go down in history as one of the best ever summers, assuming you count sunshine and heat as “best”.
Regular readers will be aware that seasonal forecasting is fraught with huge amounts of challenges, I hope to get the main themes right, and more details right than wrong – but sometimes I get it completely wrong.
Thankfully my summer 2022 forecast was pretty good – including picking up the heatwave potential for the middle of July and suggesting “some unusually hot weather”. August wasn’t so well-forecasted, but there were very conflicting signals when I wrote the forecast, and I stressed the high levels of uncertainty. Once we got into July, I was pretty confident that August would see more hot and sunny weather.
And that is a difficulty – a certain type of weather might be more probable in 3 month’s time, in my view, but then actual weather events between times change my expectations. So do take this forecast with a good bucket of salt.
Thanks to Isabel for the photograph – a donation of £15.00 has been made to Readifood as a token of my appreciation – and thank you to everyone who sends in photographs. I know I don’t always reply, but I do appreciate them.
Firstly, sea surface temperatures are notably higher than usual around the UK, so this increases the chances of warmer than normal weather this autumn.
La Niña continues, and this tends to increase the chances of high pressure close to the west of the UK in late autumn.
The Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be busier than normal, though so far is not, and ex-hurricanes (or tropical storms) can affect previously-expected weather patterns, depending on how they interact with the jetstream. And they increase uncertainty, mostly for September.
September starts unsettled, with low pressure close to the west of the UK, bringing warmth, some humidity but also plenty of heavy/very heavy showers, possibly with some thunder. Some warm sunshine/hazy sunshine in between though.
The middle of the month is more uncertain, due to some Atlantic hurricanes/tropical storms far to our west. My current expectation is for a short dry spell, perhaps a little on the cool side, followed by something warmer but wetter once more. A brief hot spell cannot be ruled out during this period.
Towards the end of the month, a reversion back to what we had at the beginning feels more likely, some dry/sunny warm/very warm days mixed in but plenty of showers, and possibly some general rain too. A trend to it being drier towards the very end of the month.
Overall I’m expecting above-average rainfall (the shock!), above-average temperatures and somewhat below-average sunshine.
Confidence level 70% – though lower for mid-month.
October looks a much drier month, with the Azores high often building across. It likely becomes cooler, perhaps a bit below-average for a while, with north-westerly or maybe weak northerlies at times. Also quite cloudy, though some sunshine – and some chilly nights. The odd weak weather front but nothing too much expected in the way of rain.
Suggestions that the second half will be warmer than normal, with high pressure stronger over Europe and more of a south-westerly flow – though this likely means at least some rain/showers at times, though I still think drier than normal overall.
Overall for the month, I’m expecting below-average rainfall, slightly above-average temperatures and around average sunshine.
Confidence level around 70% again.
For November I’m still expecting high pressure to be dominant close to our south and especially to our west, which means cooler north-westerly/northerly flows more likely than normal – not too dissimilar to the last two Novembers.
So some overnight frosts and chilly but sunny days. But also some areas of rain/showers pushing down at times, from a fairly active jetstream.
Suggestions that the low pressure may set up close to the south-east at times in the latter half of November, a weak suggestion at the moment, but this kind of set-up could bring a wetter than normal end, and colder than normal – perhaps even some wintriness.
Overall I’m expecting slightly above-average rainfall, slightly below-average temperatures and around average sunshine.
Confidence level around 60% – bit of an unusual signal for the end of November so a bit wary there.
Clearly winter is a long way away, though it is looming – perhaps more than most seasons, given the energy bills.
Early suggestions are that December is on the dry side, with a mixture of mild and cold spells.
January and February currently look more likely to be on the wet and mild side.
Well, that’s all. Remember – some of this will be wrong. The perils of long-term weather forecasting. But hopefully more is right than wrong.
If you want a summary – then a warm and wet September, a dry October and a mixed though chilly November.