Welcome to my weather forecast for Summer 2022.
A week later than I prefer, but well, life got in the way. Better late than never.
Firstly a reminder that not all of this forecast will be correct. Accurate seasonal forecasting is beyond the limits of our abilities, but we can have a good idea of the more likely patterns ahead.
Alas, events occur that can completely break a seasonal forecast – such as sudden stratospheric warming events in winter. Atlantic hurricanes can also change the course of previously expected weather.
So do bear in mind that seasonal forecasting is experimental. Some of this should be good, but some will definitely not be. My aim is to get more right than wrong.
I’m much happier with my spring forecast than I was for my winter forecast. It feels as though I got more right than wrong, including the warm spell at the end of March and the general drier and warmer feel across the season.
Next, thanks to Rose for the glorious photograph. A £15 donation has been made to Sport In Mind as a thank you. And thanks to all those that sent photographs in for the summer forecast, and even more to those who send them in without reward (other than your name in lights!) for the regular forecasts.
There are always less background signals driving our weather at this time of year
La Niña is the main background signal affecting global weather conditions, as it has been for nearly 3 years now. Currently on the weak side, a weak La Niña would suggest high pressure close to the south of the UK during June is somewhat more likely, with low pressure to the north – I think this flips somewhat during July and August, in theory, though I’m not entirely sure I’ve understood that correctly.
Sea surface temperatures around and particularly to the west and north-west of the UK, are much warmer than normal, which suggests a greater chance of high pressure around and to the south of the UK than normal, I believe – and subsequent warmer conditions.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation can help predict the more likely weather outcomes for the coming month, though I’m wary of it as a tool. It is currently in phase 7/8, I think, which suggests fairly changeable weather but warm weather more likely for the first half of June – the MJO then progresses into no active phase, which suggests something more settled likely.
Hurricane season is expected to be busier than normal, and these can introduce some uncertainty, particularly in August and September – as they have been known to change our previously expected weather patterns into something much cooler and wetter – or much warmer and sunnier.
Well we are in day 8 of June as I write, so pointless telling you what I think the first week will be like.
Early changeable conditions will trend towards drier and sunnier weather, tending to be warm or very warm – but with some variation in cloud amounts and temperatures, and the odd shower or weak weather front.
A strong build of high pressure over Europe to our south, with much hotter conditions than normal is likely to effect our weather in two ways for the latter half of June – we will have the opportunity to briefly import some hot conditions for short hot spells (this is uncertain – the heat may stay very close to our south instead), but more likely we will import some thunderstorms or ex-thunderstorms that have become areas of general heavy rain, so some short unsettled spells – though for most of the latter part of June we should be settled, some sunny days, some cloud at times, and more often warm or very warm.
Overall I expect a somewhat warmer than average month, a slightly sunnier than average month, and below-average rainfall – though the latter does depend on avoiding any particularly torrential downpours being imported.
Confidence level around 75%.
The more likely start to July would be something similar to how June ended – generally pleasant with decent sunny spells, and temperatures very warm/quite hot. However with the expectation that at times we may import more heat/humidity for short spells from the south – along with some outbreaks of downpours/thunderstorms.
During the middle third, perhaps middle half of July, the more likely outcome sees high pressure develop to our east. Depending on exact positioning of the high pressure and the airmass source, this could lead to some unusually hot weather – I’d suggest this is the period when heatwave conditions are more likely.
However, possible low pressure over France may cut off any source of particular hot air to this set-up, in which case we’d be looking at temperatures close to the mid/high 20’s, and an increased chance of thundery downpours at times.
No particular signal for the latter part of July, though perhaps slightly more likely somewhat fresher conditions with some showers. Very low confidence.
Overall I expect a warmer than average month, a slightly sunnier than average month and rainfall…well…it depends on if we catch any particularly torrential downpours. Around average assuming that we don’t catch anything too crazy in terms of a downpour.
Confidence level around 70% – main uncertainty is positioning of high pressure during that middle third/half of July – too far east and it could be more unsettled than I’m forecasting!
August I am a lot less confident about.
Suggestions are that high pressure is more likely to be to our north-east or north at times, with the jetstream more likely pushed south over the UK.
Which would mean low pressure and resulting rain/showers crossing the UK.
However I also think high pressure should at times build over the UK from the south-west, blocking any low pressure invasions for some short spells.
Broadly I’m going to suggest a fairly mixed month – yes some unsettled spells, but also some fine, dry weather at times too – occasionally on the hot side. I don’t have a good enough handle of likely weather patterns to have an idea of what period of August may be more likely to be unsettled, or hot, etc.
Overall I’d suggest a slightly warmer than average month, a somewhat less sunnier than average month and a somewhat wetter than average month.
Confidence level just 30%.
Summary and Autumnal thoughts
So in summary, I do expect a warmer/hotter than normal summer, with the best spell of weather probably broadly from mid-June to late-July, with the highest chance of heatwaves in the middle third/half of July. Though with some heavy showers/thunderstorms at times.
August more mixed with some unsettled spells, but very low confidence.
Autumn? Well, if a weak La Niña is still in play then I’d suggest that a wetter than normal September is more likely than not – though low confidence with the active hurricane season expected, this could easily be pushed north to leave a warmer than normal month.
A mixed October though perhaps drier than average.
An increased chance of colder northerly/north-westerly flows in November, with some frosts and generally fairly dry conditions being more likely.
No particular signals for winter yet.