Seasonal Forecasts

Autumn 2021 Weather Forecast

Autumn is here and so is my Autumn 2021 Weather Forecast.

Seasonal forecasts are experimental and things go wrong. My summer forecast accuracy was mixed at best – so do take this as a guide more than an actual forecast. Hopefully more will be right than wrong.

Was more right than wrong for my summer forecast? Hmmm. In terms of weather patterns, for example high pressure being dominant in August, then I’m happy with it. Alas, I had assumed it would be a sunny high as most high pressure systems are in summer – we’ve been really unlucky with the wind direction and hence all the cloud. So, though I may have predicted high pressure to be dominant – I also predicted it would be mostly sunny too. Is that wrong? Half-right?

Same with June and July, though I again feel that the main patterns were reasonably accurate, I vastly underestimated rainfall in June – I totally didn’t expect weak low pressure after weak low pressure to trundle across and set up over south-east England. I don’t think anyone did.

So don’t take this forecast as gospel.

Please can you also share the forecast in some way. Invite friends on Facebook, retweet on Twitter, e-mail it to your boss. Whatever works. Or don’t share it, I’m not fussed.

Finally thanks to Eve for the photograph. Please get in touch so I can make the charity donation!

Background signals

La Niña. This is expected to develop again over autumn, which tends to promote unsettled conditions in September and settled conditions later in autumn.

Polar vortex. Every August the polar vortex starts to develop – a weaker vortex is more likely this autumn/winter, similar to last year, this increases the chance of “stuck” weather patterns, and reduces the chances of weeks of low pressure systems going west to east on a strong jetstream, like we can often have in autumn.

Hurricane season. This is a curveball rather than a signal, but I do expect a busy September for Atlantic hurricanes and they can significantly alter expected weather patterns. This does make September especially difficult to forecast.

September

September is a difficult month to predict. It starts dry, and likely becomes very warm/quite hot, though after a couple of hot days thundery downpours may develop. After around 9th, things get tricky. A changeable two or so weeks is the more likely outcome, with some warm sunny days, some cooler cloudier days, some showery/wet days – probably warmer than normal.

However, if we strike it lucky with an Atlantic hurricane curving up and way north of the UK, it could reinforce the previous change to very warm/quite hot conditions – and we could end up with a mostly very warm and sunny middle of the month. This is an unknown curveball.

Towards the end of the month, a change to more settled conditions (assuming we had a changeable two weeks) is the more likely outcome, with temperatures around normal.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, around average sunshine, slightly below average rainfall.

Confidence level of 40%. Which is unusually low.

October

There are fairly strong signals of high pressure being close to our east for the start of October, which should translate to warmer and sunnier than normal.

A change to more unsettled conditions is likely after the first 7-10 days, with spells of wind and rain, temperatures around normal.

Low confidence by the end of the month, I’d suggest broadly changeable, some wind and rain, some drier spells. A very slight signal for colder north-westerly/northerly flows being more likely.

Overall I expect slightly above-average temperatures, slightly below-average sunshine, around average rainfall.

60% confidence.

November

Again no real signal for the beginning of November, I’d assume fairly mixed, some rain but nothing too much, more dry conditions with variable amounts of cloud. Probably on the mild side.

There is a stronger signal from around mid-month, maybe a bit earlier, for high pressure to build to our west, allowing colder north-westerly or northerly flows, with some showers at times, and a mixture of sunny and cloudy spells otherwise.

Any showers more likely of rain down here, but wintry showers will be possible in any more potent northerly. Overnight frosts more likely too.

Overall I expect slightly above-average temperatures (though colder than average later in the month), around average sunshine amounts, somewhat below average rainfall.

Summary and Winter Thoughts

So, if I’m reasonably on target, we should have a warmer/milder autumn than normal though with the second half of November more likely to be colder than normal. A bit drier than normal overall, though some wet spells. Sunshine amounts around normal.

Background signals are mixed for winter – nothing new there. La Niña would tend to suggest a wetter winter, assuming it develops to be quite strong as expected (weaker La Niña’s are more supportive of cold weather) – yet there are plenty of background signals that suggest that cold spells are more likely than normal too. Kind of contradictory.

On balance, I’d say a colder than normal start to winter, ie late November and into December is more likely.

A mixed January.

A wet and windy February.

Winter always has the wild card of sudden stratospheric warming events, roughly every other winter. We had one last winter and it did bring some cold northerly weather at times, albeit minimal snow. Impossible to predict the chance of one occurring this far in advance.

That’ll do. I need some dinner.

Spring Weather Forecast 2021

Welcome to my Spring Weather Forecast 2021.

Spring is my favourite season – especially late spring and early summer when it is often very warm but not too hot, and there are chances of thundery downpours – my favourite kind of weather day.

It is, of course, still early days for spring and still rather chilly as I write – but at least there is blossom on some trees, daffodils are starting to shine – the hope that spring brings never tires, and after arguably the most difficult winter collectively for decades, it is nice to just see the beginnings of spring.

I’m actually quite happy with my winter weather forecast – these seasonal forecasts will never be perfect but I thought I did a good job. We had more cold spells than recent winters and though we didn’t quite get something like February 2018 – the models teased that could happen, the sudden stratospheric warming event happened but just didn’t split the polar vortex which is likely why we didn’t quite have that newsworthy cold spell that we would have referred to for years to come.

So as I mentioned, these seasonal forecasts are experimental – I will not get everything right. Think of them more as a general guide, my hope is to get more right than wrong. I am not a professional meteorologist.

As always, I’d kindly ask you to share this forecast in some way – I don’t ask for anything other than a quarterly share/retweet or whatever your preferred action is.

And the final bit of administration is to say thank you to Eve for this classic Reading in spring photograph. A donation has been made to British Lung Foundation.

Background signals

I think background signals are less useful in spring than they are in winter, but those of note include La Niña which is weak and trending towards neutral – though there is some uncertainty as to whether it may strengthen once more May onwards – one would assume the trend to neutral continues, but some models have suggested La Niña could strengthen which would increase chances of rain/showers come summer.

In the more short-medium term, the MJO is suggested that it may go into phase 8/1, which would support the idea of high pressure to our north (ish) later in March.

The sudden stratospheric warming event from January will likely still have some impact – I believe that it increases the prevalence of blocking highs through spring, and there is more cold air at mid-latitudes because of the SSW that could be tapped into during early spring.

Finally, the polar vortex is strengthening which should encourage the jetstream to head further north – taking low pressure systems with it, especially as the influence of the SSW fades.

So quite a mixed and conflicting set of background signals as always, but there is a theme and that is of high pressure being close to the UK more than normal – so a drier and sunnier spring than normal is expected. Getting the position of the high pressure systems – and hence the source of the air and subsequent temperatures is the challenge.

March

March starts dry and mild. Towards the first weekend colder weather will spread down from the north – nothing especially cold but still cold enough with overnight frosts – a chance of a light wintry shower.

For the second week this will be replaced by more unsettled conditions with spells of wind and rain, and showers in between – temperatures average or a little below. I wouldn’t rule out sleet or snow either in any more notable north-westerlies.

That unsettled spell should be short-lived and high pressure should take back over for the rest of March – positioning uncertain at the moment and it will vary a bit. When it is closer to the UK, it will be rather pleasant, mild and sunny – when further west it will be cooler, perhaps colder with showers – a 2-3 day northerly plunge with wintry showers could easily occur. I do think high pressure will be to our west or close to our west for more of this period.

Overall I expect slightly above-average sunshine, somewhat below-average rainfall and slightly below-average temperatures.

Confidence level of 80% – main issue is where high pressure sets up for the second half of March.

April

Again April looks likely to be dominated by high pressure – again there are questions over positioning.

The first half looks more likely to be fairly mixed – there is a signal for both warm southerly winds and cold northerly winds – both involve high pressure close by, so we should end up with interchanging cold/warm spells, with some heavy showers around but more emphasis on sunshine.

Later in April, there are suggestions of high pressure migrating west/north a bit, allowing a cooler and somewhat cloudier north-westerly flow to become more dominant – some showers again but more emphasis on dry conditions overall. Again high pressure position probably varying so some short warm spells could easily be mixed into the dominant cooler, cloudier pattern through this spell.

Overall I expect average sunshine, somewhat below-average rainfall, average temperatures.

Confidence level of 70% – again the positioning of high pressure systems is the tricky thing to capture, and possible that it may be a bit warmer at times than I’m forecasting.

May

Again May will see high pressure over or close to the UK for much of the month – and by May there will be less cold air around to tap into so it should be warmer than average for most of the month.

The first half should be warm and sunny for most of the time – some variations, the odd weak weather front may cross from the north-west bringing some light rain and cooler conditions as high pressure moves around a bit – there may be some dull and cloudy days mixed in too depending on wind direction, but generally the theme will be warm and sunny.

Later in May, low pressure to the south will increase the chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing – though it likely remains warm or very warm and sunny most days, some days will see those heavy showers or thunderstorms later in the day.

Overall I expect above-average sunshine, below-average rainfall (unless you get a particularly torrential downpour in the latter part of May) and above-average temperatures.

Confidence level of 75% – again high pressure positioning is the tricky part and certainly possible I’ve over-egged the warmth.

And summer?

Well, that will depend on how La Niña pans out.

Early suggestions are that June will be sunnier and warmer than average – but some unsettled spells too.

There are signals that July and August will be fairly changeable with more rain and showers than normal – and temperatures generally suppressed for summer – though with short heatwaves likely.

Summer is a long way away though, and there is plenty of time for these signals to change.

So your overall take from this should be a drier than normal spring, a sunnier than normal spring, a colder than normal March, mixed temperatures April and warmer than normal May.

Roll on the first weekend where I can sit in the garden and have a beer.

Don’t forget to share!

Winter Forecast 2020/21

Welcome to my winter forecast for 2020/21. Winter is here. And my winter forecast is here too.

Where to start? I’ve written enough of these over the years that it should be second-nature. Let’s start with reminding you that seasonal forecasting is still fairly experimental – it can be difficult to forecast details 3 days away sometimes, let alone 3 months away.

Some of this forecast will be wrong. There are varying factors at play, some with more importance than others and I could easily misread something. And background signals can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly. Not to mention the atmospheric-resetting that a sudden stratospheric warming event can do – which cannot be predicted more than 2-3 weeks in advance – more on that later.

My autumn forecast wasn’t the best. September was a disaster – I forecasted a mid-month unsettled spell and an end of month very warm spell – and it was the opposite way around. Probably my error, though hurricane season does make September more difficult to predict, especially exceptionally busy seasons. My October forecast was closer and November was reasonably accurate, for a long-range forecast.

Also this is your chance to say thank you. A share, retweet, invite your friends – I don’t ask for much. I don’t ask for anything really. Just some form of sharing every 3 months.

Finally, thank you to Miranda for the winning photograph – it sums up expectations for this winter – there’s a bit of snow on the ground but I cannot be sure if it is raining or sleeting? It’s dark yet has lots of light. It might not be what you would have picked, but for me I like the story it tells. I did come very close to choosing photographs by Lisa, Georgia and Chris too.

A £10 donation will shortly be made to CALM. Which is a fitting charity given the troubles that 2020 has given.

Background Signals

I’ll start with some background signals.

La Niña is the main game in town this winter. Weak La Niña winters tend to be quite cold and snowy, with high pressure tending to be a strong feature in the Atlantic, and north-westerly or northerly winds more regular than normal. Strong La Niña winters tend to be mild and wet. Unhelpfully the strength is somewhere in between weak and strong, but is likely to strengthen. To my eyes, this favours a cold start to winter but becoming mild and wet.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a pattern of winds in the stratosphere – which is about 50km above us (we are in the troposphere). The wind direction switches between west and east roughly every 28 months – it should be in easterly phase now which enhances the chance of a cold winter, but is weirdly more in westerly phase or neutral which enhances the chance of a wet and mild winter – it is complicated to explain, but it isn’t behaving as expected. I’m not taking too much account of it this winter, other than as slightly reducing the chance of cold weather – but there are suggestions that it could properly go into easterly phase by the end of the winter.

We are just coming out of a sunspot minima which some people seem to believe enhances the chance of cold weather in winter. I get less convinced of this having an effect every year.

I don’t especially follow the Madden-Julian Oscillation, but from a brief read from people in the know, there are suggestions that this could go into phase 6 towards the latter part of December, which tends to increase the chance of blocking highs either to our west or north – which means a good chance of cold weather. This is more a medium weather-forecasting signal.

The polar vortex in the troposphere is a bit all over the place, and more towards the opposite side of the globe, so in the medium-term this enhances the chance of high pressure and potential cold weather. There is also a polar vortex in the stratosphere, and when the troposphere and stratosphere polar vortex connect with each other – we tend to end up in long spells of wet and windy weather, normally mild, just like last winter. This is a very difficult pattern to break down as proved last year – though there is a wild card.

So, the wild card – a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW). These are kind of the holy grail when you are stuck with a strong polar vortex, enduring weeks of wind and rain. The temperature in the stratosphere (50km above us, remember!) shoots up and the wind direction reverses. Over the course of 2-4 weeks, this pattern drips down into the troposphere (our level) and cold weather spills down from the Arctic into many more mid-latitude levels of the globe such as the UK.

February 2018 and March 2013 are two classic SSW events, with very cold weather and snow that followed, and stayed for weeks rather than days. An SSW does not guarantee cold or snow for the UK, but is around a 65% chance.

Predicting them more than 2-3 weeks in advance is not really possible – they tend to happen more in easterly QBO winters than westerly but I’m not sure there is much significance there. I also read that they happen more often in La Niña winters with a westerly QBO – hello 2020 winter! But I’m not sure of the source of this claim.

I know I am going on a bit now, but the current pressure patterns in the troposphere are known precursor patterns to sudden stratospheric warming events. The signs suggest to me that we are more likely to have an SSW than not this winter (they happen roughly every other winter) – maybe early to mid January, and with the 2-4 week timeline for this to affect the troposphere (us!) then February could be very interesting from a cold perspective.

I hope I’ve explained that without going too far down a technical rabbit hole – yet without dumbing down too much for those in the know, and I’m sure there are a handful reading that know much more than I do.

Phew. The forecast.

There seems more hope for cold weather, if that is your bag, then last winter – with multiple potentials. But overall in the 3 months, I expect a milder and wetter winter than normal.

December starts fairly cold. Low pressure arriving from the north-west will bring outbreaks of showery rain at times – with small chances of some sleet or wet snow. Not expecting anything especially noteworthy but the chance of a surprise heavy snowfall is there. Generally cold with overnight frosts when clear skies permit – fog possible also.

Mid-month is more uncertain, but a greater chance of somewhat milder conditions and also staying changeable – some rain at times, some dry weather also. Overnight fog possible, frost less likely.

Then for the latter part of December, overall quite varied with some chilly, sunny weather with overnight frosts, some brief milder unsettled weather possible but most notably a fairly good chance of a north-westerly or northerly plunge, bringing a chance of snow (assuming I am reading the La Niña and MJO signals correctly!).

Which does mean that a White Christmas is actually possible this year. Been a few years since I’ve said that, but remember snow is always difficult to achieve in the south of England and is a nightmare to forecast, so don’t expect anything other than “possible” until nearer the time.

Overall temperatures below average, sunshine around average and rainfall slightly above average.

75% confidence level – main uncertainty around mid-month, and also whether late-month cold plunge will occur.

January looks like it will become unsettled, quite deeply so at times. Perhaps still chilly, sunny and frosty to start, but becoming mild for most of the month.

The low pressure track often over Scotland, fairly traditional westerly flow with strong winds at times, heavy rain at times and low pressure systems moving through fairly swiftly. Generally mild, with very mild south-westerly flows possible though mildish westerly more likely. Overnight frosts very few.

There will be the chance for some brief north-westerly or northerly flows – 1-2 day cold snaps will be possible, so this may allow for some wintry precipitation, for example snow turning to rain as weather fronts meet cold air.

85% confidence level.

February is a tricky call – I am going to assume that an SSW does not occur, even though I believe it is more likely to occur than not. This is because the date of the potential SSW, and how long it takes to effect our weather, and whether it would affect our weather are all known unknowns.

I think February will more likely start unsettled, but dry conditions will slowly take over as high pressure to the south has more influence.

More likely dry and colder as the month goes on as high pressure navigates closer to the UK, allowing more in the way of overnight frosts and colder temperatures.

Though if the SSW occurs in January as I currently think very possible, then expect this to be wrong – with cold air flooding down from the north or east, and snow becoming very possible.

Overall I expect around average temperatures, below average rainfall and slightly above average sunshine.

Confidence level 50% – the SSW possibility really does cause a major forecasting headache this far in advance.

Done.

Phew, I can go make my dinner now.

So a quick summary. December starts cold, fairly mixed from mid-month though good chance of a notable cold spell later. January mild, wet and windy. February dry – but uncertain due to potential SSW.

Now your time to share!

Early suggestions for spring include a cold start to March, a dry and sunny April (could be warm or cool) and a showery May. But very, very early signals.

Have a good winter.

Autumn Weather Forecast 2020

Welcome to my Autumn Weather Forecast 2020.

I always have mixed feelings about autumn. A relief that heatwaves are unlikely. An excitement about the potential for proper rain and wind! Sadness for the diminishing amount of daylight. And I enjoy the colour of the changing leaves – it can be such a photographic season.

First the admin. If you appreciate my forecasts, I ask you to share occasionally, use the “invite friends” button on Facebook, post on social media, send to your family/friends. It is all I ask.

Next, thank you to Ros for the photograph. There were 3 or 4 really strong contenders, but I was really keen on the fact that it offers both sunshine, and threat of rain – at least clouds, a bit like the autumn I’m expecting. A £10 donation to The British Heart Foundation has been made as a thank you.

Finally a reminder that seasonal forecasting is really rather difficult. There are some background signals to assist but it is quite speculative. Some of what I forecast will be incorrect, do not take it as gospel. The hope is to get more right than wrong, and the general picture.

Feel free to check my summer forecast – I thought that it went really well and am happier with it than most seasonal forecasts in the last couple of years.

Background Signals

So the main background signal that informs my forecast is that of La Niña, which is developing in the Pacific Ocean. Likely to be a fairly weak affair, I still expect this to increase the general westerly flow over the UK, increasing the chance of strong winds and rain overall.

However I expect the mean jetstream flow to be a little north of Scotland, on average through autumn, so for those of us in the south of the UK, this will mean high pressure loosely in control – often a similar pattern to July, where we swapped short spells of high pressure though often cloudy, for short unsettled spells – the westerly flow in July meant that temperatures were not hot, bar the last day of July.

September

September is always a tricky month to forecast as Atlantic hurricanes can change previously expected weather patterns, or sometimes exaggerate current patterns. It has been a busy hurricane season so far, though we’ve only had the remnants of one ex-tropical storm and that had no effect on our weather patterns, at least that I could ascertain.

So there is always that bit more uncertainty for September.

The first two weeks of September I expect to be broadly fair. Some sunny days, some occasional showers or fairly weak bands of rain. Some warm days, some with more average temperatures.

Around the middle of September, it looks like cooler air with spread down from the north-west, with rain, showers and strong winds.

Then the last week, maybe 10 days, seeing something more settled, though still fairly mixed with the odd weather front – but more dry days than not, some decent sunshine and some warm, perhaps very warm days.

Overall I expect around average sunshine amounts, below average rainfall and somewhat above average temperatures.

Confidence level around 65%.

October

At the moment I expect October to start with some decent spells of settled weather, likely rather warm with high pressure close to our east allowing for a more southerly or south-westerly flow – though chance of fog overnight.

During the middle portion of the month, we should see more in the way of weather fronts bringing wind and rain at times, but still some fine and dry weather mixed in. Temperatures around normal.

Suggestions that the month may end more deeply unsettled, but this is probably the most uncertain part of the forecast.

Overall I expect slightly above average sunshine, slightly below average rainfall and somewhat above average temperatures.

Confidence level around 60%.

November

No particular weather type expected to dominate in early November. I do expect the jetstream to be bringing wet and windy weather to Scotland – and some of this will drip down our way with some weather fronts, some windy days, mixed in with fine days and temperatures generally around average, though perhaps a tad chilly in any lengthy settled spells where frost and fog will be possible.

For the latter part of November, the general mixed theme remains though with more of a south-westerly flow, and something milder – though rain and wind that bit more often than early November.

Overall I expect slightly below average sunshine, around average rainfall and slightly above average temperatures.

Confidence level around 65%.

Winter?

Well, December is a long way ahead. With La Niña I’d expect a wetter winter than normal and with the jetstream further south, so we’ll get more of the brunt of weather systems than during autumn, where Scotland should get the brunt.

That said there are plenty of background signals that suggest a good chance of cold spells. Then again, there were a few last season and look what happened!

So I’m fairly confident of a wetter winter than normal. For chances of cold spells and snow you’ll have to wait until nearer the time.

Seasonal Forecast – Summer 2020

Right. Welcome to my Summer 2020 Weather Forecast.

Let’s start with the caveat. I am not a professional meteorologist and at least some of this forecast will be wrong.

The aim is for more to be right than wrong – and my Spring 2020 forecast went pretty well. Not perfect – that is impossible. But I’m certainly happy with it, I think it was the most successful seasonal forecast for a year or so.

Also this is where I ask you to do some work. I do these forecasts for free and the only thing I ask in return is an occasional share. Share on Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Mumsnet, Lycos Chat Rooms, whatever your internet poison of choice is. There are links to donate on my website, but I seriously don’t want or expect anything – if you feel thankful then maybe give to charity instead…there are people going hungry and I eat too much…but if you insist on doing so the option is there.

And thanks to Louise for the photograph. I had 150+ photographs, I could easily have used 130+ of them…and some really astounding ones. Out of my very favourites, this was the one that told the story most closely.

A £20 donation to the charity of her choice will be upcoming…please get in touch if you are reading!

It does look like a good summer ahead (unless you want cold and wet), but there will be a fair mix of conditions along the way.

Background Signals

Lets start by looking at some background signals.

The main one that I have my eye on is the sea surface temperatures. Anomalously warmer than normal near us – and colder over the west Atlantic. I feel that this will be the main background signal for our summer, and this should help with high pressure building either over the UK or to our east.

It looks like La Niña might develop later in the summer or early autumn, which a month or so ago I thought would develop around July and bring a cooler and wetter end to summer – now it looks more likely to develop during August/September and even then there is uncertainty. So I’m mostly discounting any effect – but this explains my original thinking of an unsettled August which I am now thinking unlikely.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (look it up if you want to be scared by maths) is heading into easterly phase which can help promote high pressure to our north – but this transition is wobbling and perhaps showing signs of going back westerly which it absolutely should not do for a couple of years. Odd and concerning, but as far as the summer goes, this again helps my confidence that summer may end warm and sunny. I was originally expecting that this could increase the chance of unsettled and cooler conditions towards the end of summer, but the wobble makes me think not.

We are at a solar minimum which I feel favours weather patterns to get stuck in situ more easily – so things take longer to change…hence the long sunny spring. The science on the effect of solar minimum is debatable – it should in theory have favoured a cold winter in 2019/20 and look what happened! Though the record (?) strong Indian Ocean Dipole just overrode all other signals it seems.

The lack of heat over the continent so far this year and relatively wet conditions to our south suggest to me a lower chance of extreme heat – so a lower chance of record temperatures being broken, but it certainly can still be hot or very hot at times.

I also expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season. Whilst I have no idea how this might play out and affect our weather this far in advance – think of it as a greater curveball to my forecast than usual. When hurricanes get this far east (being ex-hurricanes by that point), they can change weather patterns – or exacerbate them. 2011 (I think) was a classic where two ex-hurricanes passed to our north-west bringing us that really hot September.

So…tell me something I understand

The general pattern for June will often see high pressure to our west, and also to our east over Russia – with us stuck in the middle, occasionally enjoying an extension of either high pressure, but low pressure dominating to our south.

June starts very warm (granted I’m writing this on 6th June so easy to forecast for the past). A northerly flow develops, bringing cooler and showery conditions for a while.

Exactly what happens after is uncertain, but rain or showers are quite likely in the second week or June – and rain bands could get stuck somewhere over England and produce some large totals of rain…but whether that is here or somewhere else I cannot know at this stage.

I feel that an easterly flow may develop before the middle of June – bringing warmth but an increased risk of thundery downpours.

Later in June looks more likely to be warm or very warm, perhaps even quite hot at times. Some good sunny days but I’m not expecting wall-to-wall sunshine and some thundery showers or even rain should be mixed in.

Certainly an interesting month, and watch out for the potential of flooding in France and/or Spain.

Overall I expect around average sunshine, somewhat above average temperatures. Low confidence on rainfall as it will depend on whether we get stuck under bands of rain in the second week of June, and any potential downpours.

Confidence level 70%.

July (I will write less, I promise), again looks quite a mixed month. There is a danger that I will get timings wrong on things here especially, but here goes.

There is a weak signal for something cooler and showery for the beginning of July again.

Otherwise July looks like a mixture of fine, very warm/quite hot sunny weather, with occasionally weak weather fronts from the north/north-west bringing some less warm conditions and a bit of rain/showers.

Towards the latter part of July, it looks like high pressure will be close to our east and low pressure close to our west – there should be some hotter and more humid days around, but also some wet days too, perhaps some thunderstorms.

Overall I expect slightly above average sunshine, above average temperatures and rainfall slightly below average – though catch a thunderstorm or two and it could locally end up well above average.

Confidence level 50%.

August now looks like high pressure will dominate to our east or over the UK and low pressure to our west. This distance away it is still finely balanced and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a wet August, but my forecast is for a sunny and hot August.

Yes, August I expect to be the best of the 3 summer months and I don’t recall ever forecasting that! Though I barely remember last week let alone every summer forecast I have made.

Often very warm or hot, good sunny days – occasional heavy, thundery showers developing some afternoons, though plenty of very nice weather.

Towards the end of the month, unsettled conditions arguably more likely as we head towards September – and the potential influence of La Niña.

Overall I expect above average sunshine, above or even well-above average temperatures and rainfall again more likely below average, but could be above locally if you catch some downpours.

Confidence level 60%.

Happy with that?

A brief look ahead to autumn – September looks more likely to be unsettled, otherwise there are no strong signals for the rest of autumn – a very weak signal for a drier than normal October.

I’m not thinking about winter until I know how the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation progresses.

Go on then – get sharing!