Wednesday 15th May 2026

A cool and showery few days, but likely warming up significantly next week.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

The general picture sees low pressure close to our north-east with a cool north-westerly flow which will veer northerly – not quite from the Arctic but not far off.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells but heavy showers will very quickly develop and spread south-west, frequent showers, heavy or very heavy, hail/thunder possible – gusty winds in the showers too. Occasional sunny spells. Around 13’C. Fewer showers overnight but still some around, down to around 6’C.

Thursday will be very similar lots of cloud, and plenty of heavy showers, hail/thunder possible. Wind generally lighter but still quite windy in the heavier showers. Around 13’C. Further showers in the evening and first part of the night though dry in the second half – rather cloudy. Down to around 5’C.

Friday still has quite a lot of cloud around, some sunny spells and generally fewer showers – fewer and less likely to be heavy. Around 14’C in the northerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 3’C.

Saturday starts reasonably sunny. Cloud will spread across from the west by around late morning to leave a mostly cloudy day, though bright at times with some hazy sunshine – perhaps a few spots of light rain at times also. Around 15’C. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front crosses with some patchy and mostly light rain. Around 8’C.

For Sunday we have a more westerly flow, though also the friendly Azores High is starting to push into Europe.

Sunday starts with the overnight weather front still around and probably the rain becomes somewhat heavier for a time, though likely showery. Perhaps sunnier later, though uncertain. Around 15’C. Probably dry overnight.

Some uncertainty but more likely Monday is a case of sunshine and showers, and temperatures still around 15’C or so.

Tuesday again has some uncertainty as high pressure should be starting to build but low pressure still close to our west – best approximation for now is again sunshine and showers, with temperatures increasing to around the 16’C to 19’C range.

From Wednesday onwards, the more likely outcome is high pressure taking over. It isn’t a done deal yet – it could happen further east and we’ll be stuck in a warm but showery regime instead. Say 80% likely.

Still quite possibly a fair amount of cloud around on Wednesday though temperatures more likely 20’C or higher by this point.

So, probably (not definitely) from Thursday onwards we are looking at good spells of sunshine, most likely dry and becoming very warm, say 23’C to 25’C.

By the bank holiday weekend, the more likely outcome is for it to be sunny and very warm or even quite hot. Temperatures could feasibly be anywhere between 18’C and 30’C depending on the orientation of high pressure, though more likely in the 23’C to 27’C range.

I cannot totally rule out a shower at some point – heck, it’s 10 days away. But unusually high confidence of around 80% for this outcome considering it is 10 days away.

So. I am on holiday for the next two weeks.

I should find time to produce a forecast or two during this time as I’m always up early, and the sunrise in Japan is like 4am or something crazy early so I’ll be awake from everyone and have time to do stuff.

Yes, I’ll be missing the probably glorious bank holiday weekend weather, and my football team being in the play-off final at Wembley, but Japan looks scorchio from the off.

Have a pleasant second half to the week, and sayorana until the next time.