Thursday 9th July 2020

Time to switch summer back on. Kind of. There will be interruptions though…don’t expect glorious sunshine.

No photographs. Not even a barely useable one! Pah. I’ll just use the rain radar instead.

So you can see that there is still bits and pieces of rain around this evening – most of it is light but there are one or two heavier bursts around. This continues all night though becomes more patchy as the night goes on. Quite humid at first, down to 13’C.

Friday starts cloudy, perhaps a bit of rain still. The sun should quickly come out with fresher air arriving from the north-west. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud and a 40% chance of a shower for the rest of the day. We might squeeze 20’C though I feel that is ambitious. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 9’C.

Saturday sees the Azores High spread towards us – summer! Ish.

It starts sunny, but cloud will bubble up by lunchtime – it will still be bright with some sunshine, albeit with plenty of mid-level cloud. A very small chance of a stray light shower. 20’C or just under. Not amazing – but not dull and drizzly! Though I quite like drizzle. Anyway, variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday sees high pressure in control and warmer air sneaking in. A sunny start, there will be cloud bubbling up – likely more cloud than sun through the lunchtime period, before the cloud slowly reduces during the afternoon. Very warm, 24’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to 13’C.

Monday still has high pressure over the south of England. It starts sunny, though it will become increasingly hazy during the afternoon as a very weak weather front approaches from the north-west – a small chance of a light shower later in the afternoon as it approaches. Very warm, around 24’C. This very weak weather front crosses overnight, bringing cloud and a bit of patchy rain, 14’C.

Exact details for Tuesday are not nailed down, but broadly speaking, more cloud, some sunshine and some showers around. A bit fresher but still warm, 22’C. Cloudy and warmish overnight.

For Wednesday it looks like we’ll see low pressure close to the north of Scotland, but exactly where is uncertain and this will have a big impact on the conditions here.

The model marked UKMO in the top-right corner, ie the UK Met Office, suggests high pressure hanging on so another very warm and sunny day. Yet other models are different – the one marked ECM which is generally very trustworthy suggests low pressure close by, which means at least cloudy, but perhaps with some rain.

The ECM route would also take us into a few cooler and showery days – but followed by a build of high pressure from the west, and more warmth and sunshine. I think this outcome is around a 30% chance.

So for Wednesday around a 50% chance of very warm and sunny, 20% chance of rather cloudy and warm.

And until we sort out this low pressure system near Iceland on Wednesday, I’m not sure what route our weather will take for the few days after.

I do think we’ll end up with low pressure over Scandinavia and high pressure over the UK by the week after, perhaps even by the weekend, which isn’t an especially hot set-up, but should end up quite hot – it is July, after all, so 25’C to 28’C…and the first couple of days being only warm. And generally pretty sunny but not without interruption from the odd weak weather front or a day or so of scattered showers.

It’s just Wednesday to Saturday/Sunday next week that is the tricky part and I don’t yet have a more likely outcome.

Sorry!

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