It’s going to be hot. It’s going to be humid. It’s probably going to be thundery at some points.
It is also one of those forecasts where uncertainty sets in very quickly so please do excuse this, especially around thunderstorm potential. I expect that I will be needing to give daily updates!
Thanks to Nik for the photograph which I think is an attempt at Kelvin–Helmholtz clouds from last Friday. Very rare – though not fully formed.
This is going to be a really exceptional spell of weather – with a rather exception set-up. Record temperatures could be broken, whether that be all-time record set last year, the record overnight minimum temperature, the longest run of days over 35’C or some other record!
Tonight will be a warm night in clear skies, down to around 17’C.
Friday sees high pressure to our east and a hot southerly flow.
The morning will see long spells of sunshine and it will quickly become hot – though not quite as speedy as last Friday. Some mid/high level cloud will develop during the afternoon making the sun hazy and there is a very, very small chance of a shower later. Very hot, reaching around 35’C, give or take a couple. Some cloud overnight and very warm, minimum temperature of 20’C.
Saturday will be another very hot day. Some high cloud and perhaps a bit of fair weather cloud, though at worst hazy sunshine and generally we are looking at long spells of sunshine. 33’C for sure, perhaps 35’C. Some cloud overnight, a very small chance of a thundery shower, and still warm but less so, around 18’C.
Sunday again will be very hot. Good spells of sunshine but again some high cloud and some fair weather cloud at times. A small chance of a thundery shower, maybe 10% chance – this chance could be upgraded nearer the time. Temperatures between 32’C and 35’C. So, very hot again! And humid. Quite cloudy overnight, warm and a small chance of a thunderstorm developing later in the night – around 19’C.
Monday again looks hot, perhaps very hot. Uncertainty is creeping up – there could be some cloud around, perhaps some thunderstorms or general thundery rain developing. Temperatures somewhere between 30’C and 37’C. Very warm overnight, humid, a greater chance of thunderstorms or thundery rain – but at this stage impossible to be confident. Minimum around 21’C.
Tuesday looks hot or very hot once more. Some good spells of sunshine but also this greater chance of thunderstorms – far from certain but probably the highest chance so far this spell. Temperatures somewhere between 32’C and 37’C. Very warm overnight, further thunderstorms or thundery rain possible, around 20’C.
I’m tired just thinking about all this! Wednesday will be similar, perhaps a bit less hot, say 28’C to 34’C and again with sunny spells, and a good chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday/Friday probably less hot, down to around 23’C to 26’C, the thundery low might not be too far away so further showers possible. Not especially confident though.
Next weekend is way too far away!
I remind you of the uncertainty both on temperatures but especially on thunderstorms – so difficult to predict even a few hours away, and the best chances are currently a few days away. Anything before Monday night is only a small chance – from Monday night onwards is a good chance, but they will still be hit and miss. Potentially could be frequent lightning, sizeable hail, gusty winds and localised flooding – but that’s to consider nearer the time.
Good luck with the heat! I very highly recommend an air conditioning unit.