Thursday 28th May 2026

A few more hot days but then becoming unsettled – quite a change, coming after an extraodinary heatwave for the time of year – beating the existing May record by 2’C is quite something. One shudders to think what the temperature would have been with that set-up at the end of July.

So I’m back from Japan (very sad news) and still have only done pretty limited model analysis, so maybe it won’t be so accurate after 5-7 days again, though hopefully nothing noticeable.

Thanks to Joanna for the photograph (and to anyone’s who I haven’t used/thanked, had a few more than normal!).

The general set-up sees high pressure just to the east of the UK, again drawing up hotter air from the south, though not quite as hot as Monday/Tuesday. Respite is on the way for those that loathe the heat.

Thursday starts mostly sunny, some high cloud. During the afternoon a little feature will bring some more cloud and a small chance of a thundery shower, say a 15% chance – will be pretty isolated if they develop. Hot, reaching around 31’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and pretty warm too – down to around 17’C. Cannot totally rule out a shower towards dawn.

Friday starts with hazy sunshine, and it will be very warm. The cloud tending to thicken towards lunch and early afternoon, still bright but also perhaps a shower or two breaking out – will be hit and miss again. Then sunnier for late afternoon into the evening. Still quite hot, reaching around 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fresher feel too, down to around 12’C.

Saturday will be mostly sunny and hot once more, some high cloud around making it a bit hazy, some fair-weather cloud in the afternoon too – a very small chance of an afternoon shower, say 5% chance. Hot, around 28’C. Some high cloud overnight and tending to thicken towards dawn, down to around 15’C.

Sunday looks a bit more mixed as weather fronts start to push in, so more cloud than we’ve seen and a greater chance of some showers/showery rain developing, more so in the morning. But also some sunshine too, and no guarantee of any rain in your back yard per se – will still be hit and miss as to what develops. Warm, but fresher, around 22’C. Fairly clear skies at first overnight, cloud tending to thicken later – down to around 14’C.

By Monday we start to see low pressure edge closer from the west.

Showers or showery rain the most likely theme to the day, and temperatures still on the warm side – around 20’C. The potential for something notably heavy/thundery is there, but too early to say for sure – similar conditions likely overnight.

Tuesday looks like a day of some sunny spells and plenty of heavy/very heavy showers – thunder/hail possible. Around 19’C.

Wednesday (or maybe Tuesday night) then probably seeing more general rain and wind crossing – and temperatures nudging down further to say around 16’C.

Probably it remains unsettled for Thursday/Friday next week – maybe into next weekend though I’d slightly favour it settling down by then, say 60/40 odds on something more settled.

If it doesn’t settle down in time for next weekend, then most likely it will during the next week – the middle part of June tentatively again looks often dry and sunny, with very warm/hot conditions probably developing again.

I’ve just realised that the summer forecast is almost due, though I don’t know when I’ll get time to do it as need to do lots of catching up on life after a two week holiday! Might be a week or so until I get time to do it.

Next forecast will be on Sunday, all being well.