Thursday 26th February 2026

So apparently we had our first day of spring yesterday…alas work got in the way this time. But temperatures should be notably above average for much of the next 2-3 weeks so there are chances of a repeat. And also some cloud, rain, showers at times too.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

We return to a westerly flow, there will be weather fronts but also ridges of high pressure too – and mostly we’ll be on the warmer side of the jetstream.

Today will be mostly cloudy with the odd bit of light rain at times. Becoming quite windy but staying mild, 13’C. Rain will gradually ease eastwards during this evening and overnight, generally light to moderate rain – nothing unusually heavy, and around 10’C.

Friday starts cloudy and damp, with bits and pieces of rain at times. Some bright/sunny spells poking through in the afternoon, perhaps as early as lunchtime – chance of some showers in the afternoon still though, more likely late afternoon. Again very mild, around 14’C and breezy at times. Fairly cloudy overnight with some occasional showery rain – down to around 6’C.

Some uncertainty on details for Saturday, but broadly the morning more likely cloudy with some showery rain, the afternoon brighter with some sunny spells. The uncertainty is mostly over the rain – more likely not much rain and what there is clearing by late morning/lunch, but a chance it could be more organised and persistent and last into early afternoon. Cooler air in the mix, 10’C at best. Clear skies at first overnight – clouding over later with rain probably arriving before dawn, but some uncertainty on the timing. Down to around 6’C.

Most likely Sunday starts with outbreaks of rain – there is a small chance that the weather front fades before arriving, but 90% or so likely there remains some rain. The rain should gradually fade, timing uncertain though broadly speaking we’d be looking at a fairly cloudy afternoon, some limited brightness, perhaps still some patchy light rain. Milder and becoming quite windy again, around 13’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Monday we see low pressure to our north west and ridges of high pressure both close to our west, and our east.

Again some uncertainty but bright with hazy sunshine is the more likely general theme – a weather front will be trying to cross from the west but will get squeezed by both high pressure ridges as it does. Still mild, around 13’C. The weather front should arrive at some point, perhaps by the afternoon – more likely evening or overnight, and will bring a little rain.

Tuesday probably on the cloudier side with remnants of the weather front still around, some sunny spells possible, the odd light shower too. Around 11’C.

A fair chance of something quite warm and sunny spreading up for the south for next Wednesday/Thursday – still a little bit too tenuous to be confident on.

Maybe a weather front around next Friday (or late Thursday) – and dry/sunny is the more likely outcome for the first full weekend of March – no suggestion yet on temperatures with a broad range possible.

Generally I do expect temperatures for the first half of March to be notably above average, and for it to balance out as drier and sunnier than normal – so you can be hopeful of squeezing in some more 15’C+ days. Overnight frost and fog will be possible, depending on positioning of high pressure.

Annoyingly it looks like a sudden-stratospheric warming event might happen in early March, which if it is confirmed would lead to easterly and northerly flows more likely by late March and early April onwards.

That said, it isn’t the first time this year that one has been modelled – the previous modelling of one just dissipated, and we had one in early March last year…and look how spring turned out. The more likely outcomes in meteorology are just that, and less likely outcomes can happen.

Also annoying timing as it makes my spring forecast more uncertain!