Thursday 12th May 2022

It looks like a case of close but no cigar, in terms of proper heat over the coming week – but it will warm or very warm. There is another but – there will be some heavy, thundery showers around too.

So the long-forecasted build of high pressure from the south is happening, but low pressure will be very close to our west – and this will lead to a fairly unstable atmosphere, so sunshine and warmth, yes, but also the ingredients for heavy, thundery showers – perhaps even outright thunderstorms will be there.

Still scope for upgrades for next week…or downgrades!

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight will be fairly cloudy, down to around 8’C.

Friday starts to see high pressure build from the south.

Starting with quite a lot of high cloud, but this will gradually clear to leave good spells of sunshine. Warm, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Saturday sees more good spells of sunshine. Some bits of fair weather cloud, and some high cloud at times – notably later in the afternoon. Warm, 22’C, maybe 23’C. By mid or late evening, some heavy, showery rain will spread up from the south – perhaps with some thunder. Some uncertainty on the track and timing, so perhaps it will miss us but fairly likely to see some heavy, showery rain for some part of the night. No lower than 12’C.

Sunday likely starts cloudy, depending on the timing of the overnight showery rain there could still be some left in the morning, and it could easily be heavy, possible thundery. The sun will come out later in the morning, though perhaps on the hazy side, and there will be a small chance of a thundery downpour during the afternoon. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 21’C and 25’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Uncertain overnight, but the slightly more likely outcome is further heavy, possibly thundery rain moving up from the south, with temperatures no lower than 12’C. This may instead be further east of the UK, and as such we’d have a dry but fairly cloudy night.

For Monday we remain in this warm but unstable flow.

Details a bit sketchy, but broadly some sunny spells, some cloud and one or two scattered afternoon showers – possibly on the heavy side with a small chance of thunder. On the warm side, somewhere between 20’C and 24’C, though the lower side more likely. Probably fairly cloudy but dry overnight, 13’C.

Fairly low confidence for Tuesday, but the more likely outcome is something warmer, say 22’C to 25’C, with some sunshine and some cloud, and a small chance of a shower. A risk of thundery showers in the evening, and perhaps slightly more likely overnight.

I think that is pretty much as far as I can go with any half-respectable level of confidence towards the details.

The more likely general pattern is that the low pressure to our west bringing the warmth and instability, will push the warmth east – though the low pressure itself will be deflected well to the north of the UK, so we should end up in some kind of reload pattern of the high pressure by next weekend…though I’m not yet too confident.

The tricky part is in terms of details in Wednesday to Friday, though broadly they will more likely be relatively fair days, with some sunny spells, some cloud and at least one weather front during the time bringing some showers/showery rain. Temperatures between 19’C and 23’C – though likely feeling fresher.

Wednesday is perhaps the most uncertain day, as we may just cling onto the unstable warmth for another day.

Probably continuing changeable for the rest of May but often warm, and very warm when sunny.

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