Sunday 25th January 2026

A fairly unsettled week ahead with rain and wind at times.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph – alas I have no rain/cloud photographs to match the forecast, but at least this has flooded fields.

So starting with the general overview and we have the expected scenario of low pressure systems coming up against the high pressure block over Siberia which is pushing west into Europe.

However, the jetstream has more power than previously expected, assumedly fuelled by the plunge of cold air into North America and hence the pattern is a bit further north and east than expected – so low pressure systems not getting much further east than the UK, but enough to mostly keep the cold out…mostly. Certainly not mild either.

Sunday sees this decaying low pressure around – partly the energy is going south-east into Europe, partly it is re-curving back into the Atlantic. Generally cloudy, some occasional rain – should be light/moderate and breezy. Around 8’C. Remaining mostly cloudy in the evening and overnight, any remaining light patchy rain in the evening will fade. Down to around 5’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy – a bit of brightness at times, a little bit of light rain possible at other times. Around 8’C and breezy. Rain arriving early evening, some heavy bursts likely overnight. Down to around 6’C and becoming windy too.

Tuesday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain, likely heavy at times. Some uncertainty, but more likely it clears around lunchtime with sunny spells following, and perhaps a heavy shower or two. Around 10’C – windy at times too, more so in the morning, and perhaps again later in the day. Some clear spells probable overnight – showers will remain possible, and down to around 3’C.

By Wednesday we see low pressure dominant close to our west, but still the various systems cannot get past the UK.

Wednesday itself looks a reasonable day – weather fronts stuck to our west so it should be sunny for a good portion of the day, some cloud around. Around 8’C. Showery rain probably crosses overnight.

Another band of rain probably spreads across on Thursday, timing uncertain though afternoon would be a reasonable guide. Around 9’C.

Low pressure still around Friday/Saturday so often cloudy, further showers likely at times and temperatures roughly around 8’C to 10’C. All very January vibes.

The more likely outcome is this pattern of low pressure systems close to the UK, but not able to progress further due to the block further east, continues for a while. Certainly possible the cold weather block could push further west and bring something colder/drier into February, but it does seem like the Atlantic has way too much energy now.

Rumblings of a possible sudden stratospheric warming event for early/mid-February, though any possible wintry outbreak from that would likely not arrive until late February/early March. Not something to expect yet, but something to watch as a possibility.

Assuming no sudden stratospheric warming event, then I’d expect February to continue broadly in the current unsettled theme, though some drier and colder weather at times mixed in.

March probably sees the jetstream move further north (again assuming no SSW event) – though bear in mind it is currently over the Mediterranean, and Spain/Portugal/France are actually getting the brunt of the unsettled weather at the moment and likely they will in February too. So that means that low pressure systems will often be over the UK in March, though also I’d expect to see some milder and more pleasant spring weather at times.

Expectations remain more muted for April/May – wetter and cooler patterns are currently more likely, but there’s a very long way to go until then. Currently wondering how many holidays I can fit into those months!

Have a good Sunday.