Sunday 16th August 2026

A more changeable week ahead and you should almost definitely see some rain falling at some point. Crazy times.

Thanks to Amanda for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with the Azores high just about hanging on, and the Atlantic just starting to develop some low pressure to our west…a change is coming (though summer isn’t over).

Sunday starts with some cloud and one or two little showers dotted around – say a 30% chance of catching a small shower. In the afternoon more in the way of sunshine/hazy sunshine though still some cloud around and a very small chance of a shower. Very warm, around 26’C, and a bit humid. Quite a lot of cloud around overnight, a chance of a shower, and fairly warm – down to around 18’C.

Monday sees quite a lot of cloud around at times but also some spells of sunshine/hazy sunshine – a very small chance of a shower. Quite hot, around 27’C and a bit humid again. Clear skies at first overnight before becoming cloudier later in the night as a more organised though still weak weather front approaches from the north-west. Still on the warm side overnight, down to around 17’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy – there could be a bit of showery rain during the morning but it will be hit and miss. Hazy sunshine in the afternoon. Still very warm, around 25’C or so. There is a chance of a spell of rain overnight – say a 30% chance, more likely (assuming it develops) it will stay to our south. Fresher air also making its way south overnight, so down to around 14’C.

By Wednesday, a more developed low pressure will be spreading down from the north-west, with fresher air.

Sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, some showers will develop in places, I’d say a 60% chance of catching one or two, and likely heavy, perhaps with a rumble of thunder if you do catch one. Fresher but still warm, around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though a shower not possible, down to around 14’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells and heavy showers – a 90% chance of catching some, potentially very heavy with thunder, and most likely there will be a few. Around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday is probably a similar showery day to Thursday – though some uncertainty on where low pressure will be and hence whether it is another very showery day with heavy showers, or fewer less heavy showers around. Temperatures nothing special – around 20’C.

More likely next weekend sees high pressure building to our west.

Showers still possible on Saturday though uncertain at this stage, otherwise a mixture of cloud and sunny spells – temperatures still a bit below normal.

Sunday probably drier and a bit warmer, but again some uncertainty on details at this stage.

Not much in the way of signals after that for the last week of August, my assumption remains that it will be changeable – some dry and fine days, some showery days. Temperatures broadly around or just above average – though short hot spells cannot be ruled out, if less likely than they have been.

Confidence remains high of September being drier, sunnier and warmer than normal, with more hot weather very possible.

Enjoy the showers!