Staying mostly dry and temperatures recovering to normal – the cold spell is ending, though nothing especially mild replaces it.

Apologies for the lack of updates/responses – I’ve again been laid low by one of the plethora of illnesses going around. Sigh.

And thanks to Becky for the photograph, first time in a while that I’ve had quite a few sent in.

So the general picture sees high pressure in control, and we start to see more of a south-westerly flow incoming, which will reduce the chill.

Sunday is a mostly cloudy day, with some early mist/fog. Perhaps a few sunny breaks later in the afternoon. Reaching around 4’C, still pretty cold. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, though some clear breaks at times, down to around 0’C with a frost probable for most.

Monday looks generally bright with hazy sunshine for much of the day – a very weak weather front is trying to head down from the north-west but making little progress towards us. Still on the cold side, 5’C. Some level of high/mid-level cloud remaining overnight, which probably stops a frost, but a close call, down to around 1’C.

Uncertainty on cloud amounts for Tuesday, likely there are both sunny spells and cloudy spells during the day, it could easily be mostly sunny, mostly cloudy or somewhere in between. A spot of drizzle not impossible. A bit less cold, 7’C. Fog probably forming overnight, and a chilly night – down to around 1’C.

Wednesday likely starts foggy. Again some uncertainty, this time over how long it stays foggy – plausible it stays foggy or misty all day, but more likely the fog will lift to leave a sunny day. Around 8’C, assuming the fog lifts, lower if not. Fog possible overnight, down to around 1’C, a frost possible.

The fog should clear more readily on Thursday, though still could take a little while. Sunny skies will replace the fog once it does lift. Around 8’C. More in the way of cloud/mist/fog again overnight, though fog itself less prevalent. Down to around 3’C.

Not a lot of change for Friday and into next weekend – often sunny, some cloud at times, and temperatures broadly around 8’C. Chilly nights, fog and/or frost will remain possible.

Probably becoming breezier as the weekend goes on, and maybe a weather front might bring a little rain later next Sunday – but this is quite far away.

The week after more likely heralds a more unsettled spell than we’ve seen for a while.

Further ahead, I think broadly speaking high pressure over Europe will keep us mild for most of February, though short cold spells will be plausible, and at times weather fronts will make it this far south, with short unsettled spells being probable.

March I’m still hopeful for an early spring with high pressure still likely to be dominant, and hopefully positioned to allow some relative warmth at times. A drier, sunnier and warmer month than normal still feels like the more likely outcome.

Unless we get a sudden stratospheric warming event, which would likely scupper our chances of a warm start to spring. There is currently no sign of an SSW occurring this winter – they happen roughly once every other winter, weirdly we had 3 such events last winter.

Next full forecast will probably be on Thursday morning.