I know that July hasn’t been glorious, but there hasn’t been that much rain either, at least in our parts of the world. We should get some today.

Today will often be cloudy – a bit of brightness at times. Some scattered bits of rain this morning but nothing notable.

From around lunchtime we should see some scattered heavy showers developing, but also some general heavy rain spreading up from the south-west.

There is some uncertainty as to how far that heavy rain will get – it may just be the far south-east of England – if it doesn’t get here, we’ll get some very heavy showers anyway, with hail and thunder possible – if it does then we will get more general heavy rain with some very heavy rain possible. Not entirely different either way but one of those where we’ll have to wait to see what happens.

Such is the nature of showers, you might miss them (assuming the rain stays south-east) but unlikely to do so. It will feel warm and humid, especially this morning when it could still reach 22’C – a tad fresher later and breezy too.

Sunshine and showers tomorrow but nothing especially heavy.

I left you with some uncertainty for next week, last time we spoke.

So the likely low pressure for Monday/Tuesday that I spoke about looks like it will spread rain across during Monday daytime – some heavy but also showery. Tuesday being fresher with some sunny spells and a small chance of a shower.

Wednesday sunny spells and warm, Thursday sunny spells and very warm/quite hot.

The other question was the mini-plume for next Friday/Saturday – it does now look like it is on, not certain but probable. So the question is now how many hot days – just Friday? Friday and Saturday? Or could we even squeeze a third day. Uncertain still.

I think Friday and Saturday yes, but with thundery downpours either Friday night or some point Saturday and fresher by Sunday as the most likely outcome right now, but it is still uncertain.