Monday 20th March 2023

An unsettled week ahead.

It’s also the last week before the clocks go forward, and hence the last week where the evening weather models are released before 7pm – so I might switch cadence next week to Tuesday/Friday mornings, or at least try it.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

This evening and tonight sees showery rain, occasionally on the heavy side, though there will be dry spells in between. Breezy and around 8’C.

The general picture for Tuesday (and the next week or so) sees the Azores High building over Europe, but a large low pressure trough in the Atlantic controlling our weather.

Tuesday starts cloudy, maybe still a bit of patchy rain around. This will be replaced around mid-morning by sunshine, with a scattering of showers – perhaps heavy. Showers will fade during the afternoon and sunshine amounts increase. Mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C but quite windy too. Cloud thickening overnight with outbreaks of rain from roughly midnight onwards. Windy, some fairly strong gusts overnight, and around 9’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with some patchy rain still possible. This clears pretty swiftly to spells of hazy sunshine – one or two showers dotted around, say a 20% chance of catching one. Breezy and mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. A band of showers crossing around late evening and into the first part of the night, potentially heavy – clear spells either side. Windy and around 7’C.

Still fairly windy on Thursday, with heavy showers and some sunny spells. Probably an area of heavy rain develops, though there is uncertainty on the tracking – it may go to our east, say around a 60% chance of it tracking overhead. And uncertainty on the timing, either afternoon or evening. Around 13’C.

Friday sees low pressure in charge – sunny spells and scattered heavy showers. Showers could be very heavy with hail/thunder mixed in (first proper chance of thunder for 2023). Fairly strong winds, especially in any showers, and temperatures around 12’C. Further showers overnight, down to around 7’C.

Probably less showers around for Saturday, though low confidence, and likely still some showers. Some sunny spells too, perhaps more so later in the day. Around 12’C and somewhat lighter winds. A chilly night likely, down to around 3’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday sees a northerly flow.

Likely fairly cloudy with some showers – perhaps more sunshine and less showers later in the day. Cooler and feeling so in the breeze/wind, around 10’C. A frost probable overnight.

Monday looks fairly sunny with a ridge of high pressure – though on the cool side, around 10’C.

Most likely we then revert back to unsettled for the rest of next week, with further wind, rain and/or showers. Temperatures generally quite mild.

For those looking for spring warmth – well, chances are pretty slim in the foreseeable. A small chance of a warmer and pleasant weekend to start April, but far more likely it remains unsettled and mild.

There are hints of high pressure having more influence from around the second week of April, though at first more likely positioned for cooler flows of air. The second half of April has more hope for warmth.

Next forecast probably will be Friday morning, if I go to the proposed work social on Thursday evening.

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