Monday 15th July 2024

Well, our run without a trophy continues as does our run without a summer…though there are a couple of summer-like days later this week, in a still mixed week. Not a total disappointment.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

Not much change to the general picture as we start the week, with the jetstream still much further south than it should be in summer, though weaker for the time being. The next under-developed low pressure arriving too.

Monday starts cloudy but bright. The cloud continues to thicken and some patchy rain will arrive probably late morning, or through the lunchtime period, and as the afternoon goes on there will be some heavy outbreaks of rain too, perhaps very heavy – though somewhat showery in nature. A small chance of thunder mixed in too. Reaching around 21’C for a time, though dropping as the showery rain becomes heavier. The bulk of the showery rain clears north in the evening, to leave a mostly dry night, some cloud, some clear spells – a chance of a shower later in the night, and around 13’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy, further showery rain at times possible. Gradually during the afternoon it will become somewhat sunnier, though always plenty of cloud and still some scattered showers, which could be heavy/very heavy. Reaching around 20’C in a north-westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure building. Sunny to start, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud will bubble up, with more cloud than sunshine likely though the lunchtime period, but then becoming sunnier as the afternoon goes on – though also some high cloud building so a bit hazier later too. Notably warmer, around 24’C. Gosh…summer. Cloud thickening overnight, around 15’C.

Thursday sees more in the way of high/mid-level cloud making things hazy, as a weak weather front crosses – an outside chance of a spot of drizzle in the morning, but it will be bright most of the time. And during the afternoon, the cloud will break more, to allow at least hazy sunshine, if not actual proper sunshine. Quite hot, 26’C, maybe a tad more. Some cloud overnight, around 15’C or so.

The general picture for Friday sees the Azores High trying to build further, though the jetstream will also have more energy and be close to our north.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, there may be a weak weather front with some embedded cloud for a time, but otherwise spells of sunshine, or hazy sunshine and becoming quite hot again. Some uncertainty on temperatures – but broadly between 25’C and 28’C. Cloud building overnight, at least somewhat, and around 15’C.

Can the warmer and drier conditions last into the weekend? Probably not, alas, but I don’t say that with full confidence.

Details are currently sketchy for the weekend, a weather front will try to cross on Saturday – but this could arrive any time from during the morning, to during the night – if the latter then we would score another very warm day with some hazy sunshine, with rain arriving evening/overnight. Of course, if the weather front arrives during the day, then expect some rain instead – though probably nothing especially heavy.

Low confidence for Sunday, but more likely more cloud than sunshine, and some bits of rain at some point – again, nothing especially heavy likely, with temperatures warmish.

There is still scope for upgrades or downgrades for the weekend – it is fairly loosely modelled right now.

Next week more likely starts somewhat showery, though may again become drier and much warmer later in the week. Low confidence on both aspects, for now.

Something of an improvement. Time to go enjoy my hangover. Next update will be Thursday or Friday morning.