The fairly cold easterly continues, lots of cloud and a bit of rain.

Thanks to Julie for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week is dominated by the high pressure centred over Norway and the associated easterly winds – though the source isn’t particularly cold. Were it properly cold to the east then snow would be more likely here.

So Monday will be cloudy with occasional bits of mostly light rain and drizzle, perhaps a bit more moderate at times, an outside chance of some sleet mixed in. Pretty cold in the easterly breeze at around 4’C. Cloudy overnight, the light rain tending to fade but the odd bit of drizzle still possible, and down to around 2’C.

Tuesday stays cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle, still cold though a lighter breeze, 4’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain/drizzle possible and down to 2’C.

Subtle changes for Wednesday as we lose the easterly. Still a lot of cloud, perhaps a little drizzle, but also a little bit of brightness possible. Around 5’C, maybe 6’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a splash of light rain and around 3’C.

Things start to get complicated on Thursday – the easterly fights back, but also weather fronts are edging in from the south-west. Most likely we’ll stay dry and cloudy, perhaps a little brightness, and around 5’C. The weather front continues to edge east overnight but likely stays to our west – assuming so then some cloud and some clear spells, down to around 0’C with a frost possible.

By Friday we are probably at a stalemate, with neither the cold easterly winning, nor the milder or wetter weather from the Atlantic being able to push through.

I say probably, as it still remains plausible one or the other outcome would win through by Friday.

Assuming this scenario, then probably on the sunnier side of the spectrum, still some cloud and still fairly cold – around 5’C. A frost possible overnight.

I cannot say that I’m especially confident for the weekend, but the more likely outcome sees the fairly cold and mostly dry weather hang on – with neither the milder and wetter Atlantic winning (yet…it normally does in the end) or the colder and potentially wintry weather from the east winning.

So around a 70% chance it stays dry, sunshine/cloud amounts uncertain, temperatures roughly around 5’C and overnight frosts possible, depending on cloud amounts.

A 15% chance instead that it gradually becomes milder with some rain at times, or a 15% chance that the cold air digs in properly with some wintry showers.

But most likely, fairly cold and dry.

The fairly cold and dry weather will probably hang on for the start of next week too (same percentage split 70/15/15 as the weekend)…but it is a long way away. More likely we’ll transition into a milder and unsettled spell at some point, though I wouldn’t be too surprised if this was close to the end of February – perhaps early March also unsettled, though I still expect plenty of dry weather in March and some warmth.

Have a pleasant week, I’ll be back either Thursday or Friday morning.