Friday 26th July 2024

Becoming sunnier and hotter, for a few days at least.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a ridge of high pressure moving over us this weekend, and the jetstream shifting north – and we tap into some of the heat over Spain (which won’t be far off record-breaking down there).

Sunny spells to start Friday, but quite a lot of cloud will bubble up during the morning. Remaining bright though fairly cloudy for a while, before becoming sunnier again mid/late afternoon. Warm, around 23’C. An outside chance of a shower but unlikely. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Fair weather cloud will bubble up, with around a 30% chance of a shower – though there will remain sunny spells at times too. Sunshine amounts again increasing later in the day, and reaching around 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday sees high pressure over the UK – not the strongest build ever so unlikely to stay in place, but for Sunday we’ll see long spells of very warm sunshine – probably some fair weather cloud in the middle of the day, but broadly very pleasant. Very warm, around 25’C, maybe a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight, around 14’C.

Monday will see long spells of sunshine, just a bit of cloud. Tapping into some of the Spanish heat by this point, enough to take temperatures potentially to 30’C, give or take. A warmer night likely, around 16’C.

By Tuesday, we see high pressure to our east, and also further west, with a thundery low trying to form to our south.

Hot and fairly sunny is the more likely outcome, though a thundery downpour cannot be out-ruled at this stage, and also some more high level cloud is likely. Temperatures more likely in the range of 30’C to 32’C – but a couple either side is plausible. A warm night likely, with a chance of some thundery showers.

More likely for Wednesday we see a breakdown, though these are always pretty tricky to forecast in advance. As it stands, a very warm and humid day more likely, with some thundery, showery rain – perhaps heavy/very heavy.

Not really possible to go any further until we see what the midweek thundery low does.

But broadly speaking, I’d suggest two more likely outcomes.

One would see the thundery low move away on Thursday, and high pressure build back in from the south-west, bringing at least a few more very warm and sunny days, with occasional weak weather fronts bringing cloud and light rain.

The other sees the thundery low engage with low pressure to our west, and lead to a more changeable spell, with showers and perhaps some outright wind/rain.

The warmer and sunnier outcome feels more likely of the two, but certainly a risk we go back into our perennial autumn. You can be hopeful though, assuming you like it warm/hot and sunny.

Enjoy your weekend!