Autumn Weather Forecast 2026

Hello and welcome to my autumn weather forecast 2026, aimed at Reading & Berkshire, though realistically can cover much of south and east England.

First a reminder that seasonal forecasting is experimental – some of this will be wrong. A successful seasonal forecast would be one with more right than wrong, but even that is at least somewhat down to chance.

We can understand the drivers, the background signals, etc – but events happen, such as major storms, and over-ride these, or even change them.

My summer forecast probably just about gets into the successful category – things I got broadly right include forecasting it to “often be scorchio”, pointing out the potential for the June temperature record to be broken, and general expectations for high pressure and sunny weather to be a major part of summer. However, I didn’t think it would be dry – I did expect at least average rainfall. More right than wrong? I’m taking it as a win.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

Background Signals

The one everyone will be talking about is El Niño, almost certainly a “Super Niño”, if not of record-breaking strength, perhaps record-smashing.

We are quite a lot downstream from the Pacific so effects on us are less predictable, and if it is of record-breaking strength then that raises the question as to whether the impacts are greater for us than a normal El Niña…or different.

Anyway, El Niño tends to increase westerly flows in autumn, so unsettled conditions are more likely than normal, storms and heavy rain will be more likely than normal.

Other aspects include sea surface temperatures which are above normal, and should nudge land temperatures upwards also.

Also it is hurricane season – though hurricanes are less common during El Niño, and tend to strengthen less, but they can impact our weather patterns if they curve up the Atlantic coast of USA and interact with the jetstream. Currently there have been zero hurricanes this season. September tends to be the month where there can be most downstream impacts on our weather patterns from hurricanes.

September

September starts mixed, some wet or showery days but also some sunny and warm days.

From around mid-month we should start to see high pressure build close to the UK to bring a more lengthy spell of settled and often dry and sunny weather.

Perhaps some chilly nights mixed in, especially at first, mostly warm days – though some mix of temperatures depending on how high pressure orientates itself, briefly very warm possible, as will be something a little cooler on some days.

Overall I expect slightly above-average sunshine, around average rainfall, above-average temperatures. Some weak weather fronts possible late in the month.

Confidence level around 75% – higher than I normally go for September because lower chances of hurricanes changing our expected weather patterns.

October

At some point autumn will really crank up the gears. Though at first I think October will be kind of mixed again, high pressure probably just about hanging on to give more dry than wet days at first, and the rain possibly fairly minimal.

Some potentially slow-moving systems centred over the south of England/France at times in the middle of the month, could bring some heavy/very heavy showers/showery rain at times.

Later in the month probably more oomph in the jetstream will carry low pressure systems across the UK at greater speed, more chance of gales at times, and of course spells of heavy rain – though some brighter days mixed in.

Overall I expect slightly below-average sunshine, around average temperatures and above-average rainfall.

Confidence level around 75% – possible that high pressure hangs on a bit longer at first so we end up closer to average overall for rainfall.

November

November should be pretty straight-forward to forecast – it would be a real surprise for the month to be anything other than generally wet and windy. That said, nothing is certain in long-range forecasting.

Likely very mild at times, especially in the first half of the month.

The odd short break of colder and drier days possible later on, but blips from the main pattern.

Confidence level around 80%. Maybe the potentially record-breaking El Niño actually means something else, high pressure is forecast over Spain, perhaps it nudges up here and actually the wet and windy weather is reserved for Scotland? But do expect wet and windy as far the most likely outcome.

Summery And Early Winter Thoughts

Writing this has just made me realise autumn is upon us. And after September is out, likely a very wet and windy one.

As far as winter goes, I’ll be surprised if December and January are anything other than wetter and milder than normal, with gales/severe gales possible at times. That said, not every day will be wet, not every day will be mild.

Perhaps February may give a wintry surprise, but gosh that’s sooooo far away.

Time to book a holiday perhaps.