Wednesday 28th December 2022

Back to the weather forecasting hobby for me, back to work for some of us, and back to rain for all of us.

No photograph as all I have in my inbox is sunshine and frost – this is a mild and wet forecast instead!

Today will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – sometimes light, sometimes heavyish, clearing around 3pm – give or take. A little brightness to finish the day, but a couple of scattered showers in the aftermath of the rain also. Mild and windy, reaching 12’C. Windy with a few showers overnight, no lower than 7’C.

Low pressure very much in control on Thursday, with the next system developing to our west.

However we are in between weather fronts, so a sunshine and scattered showers kind of day – not many showers reaching this far inland, say a 40% chance of catching one or two. Windy and cooler, 8’C. Clear skies at first overnight, but clouding over as the night goes on. Minimum temperature around 3’C.

Friday morning sees a spell of rain push through, clearing around midday. Some hazy sunny spells possible after, though plenty of cloud likely, and the odd scattered shower. Windy and back to mild once more, 12’C. Further showers or general showery rain probably returns in the evening and overnight, though a little uncertainty on the track – it may stay to our south. No lower than say 8’C.

New Year’s Eve has some uncertainty in terms of where weather fronts are located – but they will be close to the south of the UK. Likely we get some rain at some point during the day, and this would be more likely in the afternoon period – maybe it stays to our south and we stay dry, though on the flip side, maybe it rains all day. Some heavy bursts possible also. Temperatures likely on the mild side, around 12’C but could easily be anywhere from 8’C to 14’C. Overnight likely sees further showers at times. No lower than around 8’C.

New Year’s Day again suffers with the same uncertainty in terms of where weather fronts will be – one weather model is quite persistent with developing a rather nasty feature, but it has been wrong quite often recently, so a nasty system feels unlikely. Generally a cloudy day with rain at some point is more likely, and likely it will be mild, around 11’C.

Pretty low confidence going forwards, but suggestions that high pressure is going to try to push up from the south/south-west – but will be battling against the re-invigorated Atlantic.

So tentatively, Monday could be dry – or drier than it has been, probably sunny or with hazy sunshine, with temperatures more likely around average, say 8’C. Assuming so, a chilly night likely, perhaps a frost.

Tuesday broadly similar, more likely some sunshine than not, more likely dry than not, more likely around 7’C.

The general trend from here for around a week more likely on the changeable side, though high pressure close to our south-east should mean that rainfall amounts when it does rain will be fairly low, temperatures more likely somewhat on the mild side overall.

No sign of a return to cold – small chances of a short cold spell mid-late January, though it generally looks like it will become unsettled once more.

Otherwise if you enjoy cold and snow, then hope for a sudden stratospheric warming event which could change our weather patterns to a colder one – but I wouldn’t expect such an event until late (ish) January at the earliest, and even then, it normally takes 2-4 weeks to propagate to the troposphere, where we live.

Next full forecast will either be Sunday or Monday, not sure yet.

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