Wednesday 22nd November 2023

I’m finally flying back to England tomorrow, so am I bringing the warmer weather with me? Absolutely the opposite – colder air is going to spread down from the north. A wintry surprise is not out of the question in such a set-up.

No photographs from anyone, so you’ll have to cope with one of my sunrise photos and pretend it is really the banks of the River Thames.

Today will generally be cloudy – some brightness at first and a little hazy sunshine, the odd spot of light rain possible at times this afternoon. Reaching around 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, again the odd bit of light rain/drizzle possible, and around 10’C.

High pressure in control for Thursday – some sunny spells but quite a fair amount of cloud too. A bit milder, around 12’C or so. Becoming breezy later in the day. A weak weather front slips south overnight, bringing an hour or two of light/moderate rain roughly around midnight, give or take, then clearer to follow, down to around 7’C.

For Friday we see high pressure to the west of Ireland, and a colder, more northerly flow becoming established.

Some cloud around at times, especially at first but generally rather sunny. Feeling colder, reaching around 8’C in a northerly-ish wind. Welcome back, James. Clear skies overnight and a frost probable, down to around 0’C – only uncertainty is it might be a tad too breezy for a frost.

Saturday will be sunny but cold – just 5’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, a frost again probable – down to around 0’C, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it down to -4’C in places – again a bit of uncertainty, this time on cloud amounts.

Sunday is a bit more uncertain. The more likely outcome sees it remaining mostly sunny, perhaps hazy sunshine and on the cold side – somewhere around 6’C. However, some models do bring a decaying low pressure system to our west, which could instead bring some cloud and patchy rain – if so, more likely afternoon/evening.

Monday probably sees this decaying low pressure close by – details uncertain but likely a bit milder, on the cloudy side and perhaps some patchy rain.

I’m at a loss as to where we go from there. It’s very possible that cold air will try to push down again from the north, or perhaps more likely north-east/east – though at the same time, weaker low pressure systems will try to push in from the west. Where these two air masses meet, then wintry surprises could be possible – but most likely any precipitation will be rain.

I wouldn’t rule out a return to milder westerly flows outright, nor would I rule out a full-on cold easterly. But some kind of messy middle ground looks more likely, with temperatures on the cold side, and generally a mixture of expected weather types for late November.

Not sure when the next forecast will be, I guess maybe on Wednesday. Enjoy the, erm, colder weather.

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