Tuesday 8th August 2023

One hot day coming up. Otherwise fair, with some showers. Well, it is an improvement (unless you’ve really enjoyed the wet July).

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of mostly lightish rain or drizzle, as an underdeveloped weather system crosses the south of the UK. The odd heavier burst possible, but generally rainfall totals low. Some brightness at times, mostly in the morning. Reaching around 17’C. Cloud and patchy rain in the evening, this gradually fading and breaking up to leave some clear spells. Down to around 12’C.

By Wednesday we see high pressure start to push up from the south – with the low pressure to the west (for the coming weekend) acting as a bit of a heat pump, though nothing like 2022’s heat pump lows.

Wednesday will be a bright day with hazy sunshine – it looks like there will always be some amount of high/mid-level so clear blue skies unlikely, perhaps near the end of the day. Warm, 23’C or so. Milder overnight with some clear spells – though also some cloud. An outside chance of some mist/fog forming in places towards dawn. Around 15’C.

Thursday sees good spells of sunshine! Perhaps some low cloud at first, but if so it will lift fairly quickly, and some high cloud at times, but broadly the most summer-like day for some weeks. Quite hot, 26’C, maybe 27’C. Clear spells for much of the night, though more cloud towards dawn and perhaps a shower, as a weather front approaches. A warmer night, 17’C.

Friday sees a weak weather front crossing – therefore much more cloud though still some brightness, a bit of showery rain – with sunny spells following later in the day. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Some clear spells, some cloud overnight – down to around 15’C. There is a small chance of importing overnight thundery downpours from France – 10% chance.

A new Saturday – a new low pressure system, though this time tracking further north across Scotland.

Sunny spells and scattered showers is the theme. More likely you catch at least a couple of showers during the day, and they could be heavy, a small chance of a rumble of thunder – though perhaps you miss them all. Reaching around 22’C and breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

More of the same for Sunday – sunny spells and scattered showers, more likely you catch at least a couple of showers but maybe you get lucky and miss them all. Showers could be heavy, a small chance of a rumble of thunder. Around 21’C and breezy. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Monday sees fewer showers around, still a chance of catching one or two, otherwise sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Around 21’C.

Generally next week looks unremarkable. The more likely outcome is that low pressure remains fairly close by, so some showers possible, but also some sunny spells and generally fairly warm. It could be worse. It has been worse.

Some signals for a warmer spell after mid-month, though whether it is another 1-day wonder or something slightly longer is too early to speculate on. Though generally, the theme for August should remain changeable – so even a few warmer, sunnier days, if they happen, should revert to showers shortly after.

No strong signals for September – other than mixed.

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