A few more dry days, but becoming warmer, more humid with some thundery showers by the weekend. Which has long been in the forecast!
Apologies for no summer forecast yet, I did start writing it on Sunday but then decided to enjoy the sunshine, and didn’t have the brain to finish it later…and yesterday was a bit of a nightmare of a day. And now I need to do the regular forecast! Tomorrow, hopefully, if not tonight.
Thanks to Kate for the photograph.
So the general picture sees high pressure pretty much where it has been for the last few weeks, but now we have low pressure over The Azores, which will try to head our way later this week, and move the wind direction from the east to something south-easterly (ish) – enough to make quite a difference.
For now, cloud. It will be stubborn today. There will be sunny spells in the afternoon, though always some cloud around. Temperatures between 18’C and 20’C depending on sunshine amounts, with the easterly breeze continuing. Cloud thickens again tonight, no lower than 9’C.
Wednesday starts cloudy but it will clear much quicker, by around mid-morning, give or take. Perhaps some fair-weather cloud around but otherwise good spells of warm sunshine, 22’C, maybe a tad more. We’ll still have the easterly/north-easterly breeze though. Cloud spreading across again overnight, down to around 9’C.
Early cloud clears quickly on Thursday to long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair-weather and some high cloud but generally pretty glorious. Around 23’C, maybe a little more. Still the breeze. Patchy cloud spreading from the east overnight, some high cloud also moving in from the south-west – around 11’C.
Friday sees some high cloud at times, so sometimes on the hazy side but generally it will be mostly sunny. We’ll still have a breeze, more notable if anything but now the source is Turkey rather than Sweden (broadly speaking), so it will be very warm, reaching between 24’C and 26’C, and perhaps somewhat humid. Quite cloudy overnight – a chance of a shower if any remnants of showers over France are still in tact. Around 14’C.
By Saturday the Azores low pressure is a bit closer to us, allowing some instability. And some uncertainty.
Details definitely sketchy for Saturday but spells of very warm but likely hazy sunshine, with chances of showers – perhaps early morning and then again later in the afternoon the main chances, with afternoon showers potentially torrential and thundery. However, I stress the uncertainty, not everywhere will see the showers and some places will likely stay dry (or mostly so) with very warm/hot hazy sunshine at times. Temperatures will depend on how much sunshine you get, and could be anywhere between 22’C and 30’C, with somewhere in the middle more likely. Likely on the humid side also, though a lighter breeze at last. It should be dry overnight, some cloud and a warmish night, down to around 15’C.
Sunday again details a bit uncertainty, but broadly plenty of hazy sunshine, variable amounts of fair-weather cloud – though it will likely bubble up in the afternoon with some thundery downpours in places. You may stay dry – you may get an ordinary shower, you may get a torrential downpour with frequent lightning, large-ish hail and gusty winds. Very warm, perhaps quite hot, somewhere between 25’C and 28’C more likely. These scattered thundery downpours continue in the evening, fade overnight, and a fairly warm night, down to around 16’C.
Next week starts quite hot, with sunny spells (probably hazy quite often) and scattered thundery downpours. Tricky to put details on where/when downpours most likely, as it will tend to change from day to day. Temperatures broadly in the 25’C to 30’C range, again a bit of variation from day to day.
Next full forecast should be Friday morning, I’ll try to do the summer forecast tomorrow (maybe tonight).