Tuesday 29th August 2023

Fairly nondescript and changeable weather this week, though with signs of high pressure gradually building towards and into the weekend.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today will be rather cloudy with some occasional brightness. Later in the afternoon a band of showery rain will slowly work its way south-east, continuing into the evening. Often light, but occasionally heavy rain. Around 19’C. Clear skies once the showery rain clears, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up with a few scattered showers, say a 30% chance of catching one, perhaps heavy. Reaching around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear spells for a while overnight, though cloud gradually thickening as the night goes on. Down to around 12’C – perhaps some light rain/drizzle by dawn.

Thursday sees low pressure spreading rain across the south of the UK, though high pressure lurks to the west and looks like it may later be pushed our way by Hurricane Franklin.

So a mostly cloudy day with rain arriving during the morning, and continuing off and on for much of the day – sometimes light, sometimes quite heavy. Reaching around 16’C, though a bit cooler when raining. Fittingly autumnal for the last day of summer 2023. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, a shower possible, but also some clear spells. Down to around 12’C.

By Friday high pressure is starting to build – and will dissolve the low pressure (for want of a better word). Quite a bit of cloud around, and a chance of heavy showers – though some uncertainty on that chance at the moment. Also some sunny spells and reaching around 21’C – so warmer. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

For Saturday it looks most likely that high pressure will be building over the UK – though as I mentioned, this relies on the movement of a hurricane so this adds uncertainty. Low pressure won’t be too far to our south – any changes in Franklin’s movement could lead to a showery weekend instead.

But with roughly 80% confidence, lets say both Saturday and Sunday will be dry with some sunny spells and some cloud. Certainly possible that there is more cloud than sun overall, but it will still be reasonably pleasant, and warm at 22’C.

The more likely outcome for next week is that high pressure remains close to the UK, or over the UK, allowing for more warm and often sunny weather, with some cloud from the North Sea possible at times, depending on exact positioning of the high.

Not especially high confidence – with hurricane/ex-hurricane Franklin probably still in the Atlantic somewhere, things could change – and low pressure is likely to be fairly close to our south, so thundery showers could spread up from there.

Not bad. I’ve long accepted autumn…but a bit more warm sunshine will be very welcome!

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