Tuesday 28th February 2022

Fairly cold and fairly dry. But changes from Sunday (ish) thanks to the sudden stratospheric warming event.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Sunny spells to start today, but rather cloudy from mid-morning onwards – still a few bright/sunny spells possible, also the odd light (ish) shower dotted around. 7’C, maybe 8’C but feeling chilly in the north-easterly breeze. Probably too much cloud tonight for a frost, though not impossible, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday continues in this easterly flow, with high pressure to our north – the jetstream very quiet.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy. A few bright spells at times, the odd light shower around, but cloud is the theme. 7’C in the chilly north-easterly breeze. Cloudy for much of the night, but maybe some clear spells before dawn – a close call on a frost, down to around 1’C so a frost possible by dawn.

Thursday will see more in the way of sunshine. Still some cloud at times, but brighter than the previous two days. Around 8’C. Likely becoming cloudy once more overnight, so a frost unlikely but not impossible. Down to around 2’C.

Friday looks rather cloudy once more, though there should be some bright/sunny spells – especially later in the day. Around 8’C, give or take. A small chance of a light shower. More in the way of clear spells overnight, a frost likely assuming so, down to around -2’C.

Saturday looks more likely to be fairly sunny to start, more likely to be rather cloudy in the afternoon. The breeze switching to a more northerly direction. Temperatures around 7’C, maybe a tad more. Probably too much cloud for a frost overnight, but uncertain, down to around 2’C.

By Sunday, we likely end up in some form of northerly flow – possibly a harbinger of a significant cold spell, or possibly just something colder than normal. A little too early to be sure.

Fairly cloudy on Sunday, some sunny spells possible, also a few light (ish) showers around – they should be of rain but a wintry mix isn’t impossible. 5’C, maybe 6’C. Frost possible overnight – a small chance of a wintry shower.

The more likely outcome for next week is that this is a notable cold spell, with daytime temperatures around 3’C to 5’C – wintry showers will be possible and we could see snow falling at some point – settling is another matter entirely, especially for any length of time with the strengthening sun.

Maybe by the weekend after, we could see milder and wetter weather try to push up from the south-west – the jetstream by this point reinvigorated and providing plenty of rain to Mediterranean countries. And where rain meets embedded cold air – copious snow could fall somewhere – more likely central/northern Britain, but not impossible down here. A long way away though, and the mild/wet weather may well stay to our south.

Still possible that next week is just ordinary chilly – something kind of similar to this current week.

I’ll write the spring forecast either tomorrow or Thursday, the next full forecast will probably be Friday morning.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *