Tuesday 27th February 2024

On the chilly side and generally fairly mixed to end February and bring in March.

Thanks to Philippa for the photograph.

Tuesday starts bright with spells of sunshine, albeit often and increasingly hazy. A weak weather front crosses during the afternoon/evening, bringing thicker cloud and a little light rain at times. Around 7’C. Clear-ish skies overnight, though mist/fog forming in places towards dawn. Chilly, down to around 3’C.

Early mist/fog patches will lift on Wednesday, but it will stay fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud spreads east during the afternoon, with showery light/moderate rain. Breezy and milder, 10’C. Cloudy overnight with the odd bit of light rain – something somewhat heavier around dawn, around 10’C.

Thursday morning sees some showery and possibly heavy rain. Some uncertainty as to when this clears east – any time between midday and 5pm, is feasible – with sunny spells following. Mild in the rain, 10’C, maybe 11’C, but notably cooler after it clears. Clear skies overnight, temperatures dropping to around 1’C – a touch of frost possible. Towards dawn rain approaches, perhaps with a touch of wintriness mixed in.

For Friday we have this low pressure trough dropping down from the north-west with some colder air mixed in.

The morning sees heavy rain, perhaps a little sleet mixed in, but predominantly rain. A short spell of strong winds is likely as it arrives – not going to make for the most pleasant morning walk! This clears to sunny spells and the scattered heavy showers in the afternoon. Around 7’C. Further showers probable in the evening and at times overnight – most likely rain, but something wintry mixed in is possible. A chilly night, down to around 2’C but very give or take – a frost possible.

Low pressure will still be in charge for Saturday. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers is the more likely outcome – though it will depend on the exact positioning of low pressure. Around 7’C. Some uncertainty overnight, though the slightly more likely outcome is a clear and frosty night, down to around -1’C – but there is a chance instead of some showery rain.

Sunday likely still has low pressure close by, but exact positioning is uncertain and hence details are sketchy. Broadly though, sunny spells with a chance of some showers, and around 8’C.

Showers still possible for Monday, though by Tuesday it looks like high pressure is going to start building from the south-west.

So the middle of next week looks most likely that it will be dry, with sunshine/hazy sunshine and turning milder, say 12’C or so. Pleasant enough. Not a done deal – but close to. Overnight frosts possible.

Where high pressure then centres itself will determine whether we get a taste of spring, or a reminder of winter. My suspicion is that it will centre itself over Scandinavia, and we’ll get something more south-easterly/easterly which will lead to cooler/colder and cloudier conditions. Can we sneak a nice spring-like weekend out first? Possibly, but that’s 11 days away.

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