Tuesday 26th December 2023

One fine Boxing Day, but then the wind and rain is back – with the jetstream starting to track further south. More profound wintry changes down the line to come, perhaps.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Boxing Day starts sunny. High cloud will build during the morning, and gradually this will thicken, making things hazy – but it remains bright and pleasant. Cooler than of late, 9’C. Some outbreaks of rain later this evening and overnight – though the more persistent and heavy rain will be further north – breezy too. Down to around 6’C for a time but becoming milder later in the night.

So the general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure arriving, on a more southerly track of the jetstream.

A cloudy start for Wednesday, some little bits of light rain but mostly dry. During the afternoon, showery rain spreads east – some heavy, and the winds become strong and gusty too once more. 12’C. Dry in the evening for a time, though a heavy shower or two passing through late evening – then likely dry overnight. Remaining windy and down to around 8’C.

Thursday remains windy. Some sunny spells at times, but also some heavy, squally kind of showers passing through – most places catching at least a couple but a small chance of missing them all. Around 11’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though tending to be more cloud later, down to around 6’C.

More in the way of cloud for Friday, though some sunny spells likely at times. Some showers likely, or perhaps showery rain but quite some uncertainty on this aspect, in terms of timing, intensity and frequency of showers. Around 8’C and still quite windy. Further showers possible overnight.

Saturday looks quite uncertain though the broad pattern is waiting for the next low pressure system to arrive – maybe it arrives in the afternoon bringing rain, maybe it arrives in the evening/overnight but there are showers beforehand.

New Year’s Eve looks windy, with rain clearing to showers – again the uncertainty on timing.

Into the start of 2024 and it looks like further low pressure systems will head our way, but tracking further south than usual due to the jetstream being further south than usual. This means colder air can filter down and perhaps there could be some sleet/snow mixed in (ie rain turning to sleet/snow, etc) – low chances but possible. Though also possible that they go further south of the UK, and we’ll be cold with overnight frosts instead.

Quite a lot of uncertainty for January, but higher chances of notably cold spells than normal – not only do we have a possible SSW event which could impact our weather later in the month, we also have a disrupted polar vortex and various other background signals, both short and long-term that favour colder weather. It’s a bit too far out still, but the second week of January certainty has possibilities in terms of cold conditions.

Enjoy your Boxing Day – next full forecast (with a bit more research!) should be on Thursday.

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