Hello from foggy Budapest! Yes, I managed a whole 6 months without leaving the country, and all I’ve had so far is rain, cloud and now fog…oh and the dentist. How fun.

A reasonable week in the UK, but generally more cloud than sunshine, and a bit cooler by the weekend.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture sees the Azores High nudging north-east – and the jetstream to our north mostly keeping weather fronts away.

Any early mist will clear quickly on Tuesday, bright at first but a weak weather front will spread down during the morning to bring mostly cloud, perhaps a little drizzle. Around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Staying cloudy for much of the night, a bit of light rain/drizzle possible at times, especially in the evening. Clear spells possible – but fog will form if the cloud breaks. Down to around 5’C but very give or take on that.

Wednesday starts with low cloud/mist/fog. This breaks up to an extent but always likely more cloud than sunshine overall, but still a reasonable day – and reaching around 16’C. Clear spells for a time overnight but mist/fog/low cloud forming later in the night. Roughly down to around 4’C – but again very give or take.

Thursday again starts with low cloud/mist/fog for many. Again it breaks up to an extent but always lots of cloud around – generally less cloud later in the day and more sunny spells. Around 16’C or so. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud thickening later as a weather front approaches – down to around 6’C.

Friday starts with a weather front crossing – timing uncertain but at some point during the morning there will be 2-3 hours of showery rain, perhaps even clearing by dawn, though more likely not. Most likely sunshine and scattered heavy showers follow, though perhaps it just stays cloudy instead. A much cooler feel in a north-westerly wind, around 11’C or so. Clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

The ridge of high pressure remains to start the weekend but low pressure is lurking to the west.

Saturday likely starts sunny, with cloud tending to increase later in the day. Around 12’C or so and breezy. A weak weather front probably crosses overnight, bringing some cloud and a bit of light rain.

Low confidence for Sunday – somewhat more likely on the sunny side of the spectrum, showers possible – temperatures uncertain, could be cooler, could be warmer. Will need another day or two for it to become clearer.

High pressure likely to dominate next week – early signs are that it will be in a cooler position, drawing in easterly winds – it’s impossible to know whether the sudden stratospheric warming event is causing this to show in the models, but it’s broadly what I’d expect, and have been expecting.

That said, the positioning is far from guaranteed, and I’d say it is still around 65/35 split as to whether it is in a position that sources colder air, or a position that sources warmer air. Overnight frosts will remain very possible – far too far away to know the sunshine/cloud balance.

Next forecast might be on Friday morning, but I’m not sure right now. Have a pleasant week…I’m hoping the sun comes out here in Budapest later today.