Tuesday 25th July 2023

A very un-special week for peak summer, but not a washout either.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph. As a reminder, retrieving images from Facebook messages is still not working for me, so I can only use any you e-mail to me, or add as comments to a post.

So the general picture sees the jetstream running from North American, across the UK and well into Europe – which has helped to make our unsettled spell difficult to dislodge.

Though the Azores High is trying to nudge in from the south-west – not with sufficient force to stop low pressure dominating, but it will nudge low pressure systems a bit further north, and give us some drier days. Don’t get too excited.

Sunny spells to start Tuesday, though cloud will quickly bubble up with a couple of showers breaking out by mid/late morning – around a 50% chance of catching one or two. These showers fade during the afternoon, and there will be a bit more sunshine, but plenty of cloud too. Temperatures struggling to 19’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday looks fair – sunny to start, fair weather cloud bubbling up, then slowly during the afternoon high/mid-level cloud thickening from the west. Warmer, 22’C, maybe 23’C. Rain arrives by early/mid-evening, continuing overnight with some heavy/very heavy bursts possible. Breezy and no lower than 15’C.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps still some showery rain at first light. It stays cloudy during the morning, perhaps some further bits of showery rain, more likely towards lunchtime. At some point in the afternoon, the sun should come out, still some cloud, still a small chance of a shower but otherwise pleasant – though it may take a while to arrive. Reaching 23’C or so and warm, once the sun comes out. Likely becoming cloudy overnight, and around 15’C or so.

Friday looks rather cloudy but rather warm. A bit of sunshine at times, particularly later in the day, a few showers, especially in the morning, though unlikely anything too heavy. Temperatures between 22’C and 24’C, depending on (limited) sunshine amounts. Variable cloud overnight and a chance of a shower, around 16’C.

Our next low pressure system will be arriving into north-west Scotland by Saturday.

Down here the weather won’t be too bad, some cloud, some sunshine, a few showers through the middle part of the day but hit and miss – perhaps quite heavy. Showers less likely later in the day, but cannot be ruled out. Breezy, around 21’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Probably more showers around on Sunday, and more likely to be heavy, with a rumble of thunder – but far enough away to have some uncertainty – maybe it stays mostly dry, maybe there is general showery rain, but sunshine and scattered heavy showers is generally the more likely outcome. Reaching around 22’C and breezy.

Early next week likely sees more wind, rain and heavy showers as another area of low pressure moves through.

But there are hints of somewhat drier and sunnier weather after. I’m not suggesting a return to the weather we had in June, but a better balance towards something summer-like, though still showers on some days.

The chances of some hot weather looks better for the second half of August than the first half, though I wouldn’t yet say I have much confidence, and I certainly wouldn’t expect it to come without heavy showers/thundery downpours on some days.

So, hope for improvements in sunshine amounts and warmth from late next week, but keep expectations under control – it is 10 days away! Next forecast should be Friday morning.

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