Tuesday 25th April 2023

A fairly mixed week ahead, some sunshine, some showers/rain – colder at first, warmer later. Yes, warmer. But still mixed.

Thanks to Helena for the photograph.

Tuesday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up from mid/late morning, and it will be rather cloudy for the rest of the day, though with some limited sunny breaks and dry. 11’C. Some clear spells at first overnight though generally fairly cloudy. Down to around 4’C.

Wednesday looks mostly cloudy as a very weak weather front pushes north-east. Some bright spells at times allowing some hazy sunshine, maybe a splash of light rain/drizzle at times too, but mostly cloudy – and temperatures still struggling, 9’C, maybe 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells at times, down to around 5’C.

You may remember in previous forecasts that I talked about the battle between cold air pushing south and warmer air trying to push north, with the cold air winning at first. Well, by Thursday the warmer (milder at first) air will start winning.

But don’t get too excited, it is bringing rain. Mostly cloudy, some bright/sunny spells possible at first – some uncertainty on the timing of rain, but roughly afternoon and evening, and rather showery in nature is the more likely outcome. Temperatures around 13’C, though I wouldn’t rule out a bit more, especially if the rain doesn’t arrive until late afternoon. Showery rain gradually clearing overnight, likely staying cloudy and mild, around 10’C.

Details sketchier from here – and the relatively warmth isn’t completely a done deal, it is geographically a close call. But more likely for Friday, we see cloud slowly breaking up to give some sunny spells – likely more cloud than sunshine even during the afternoon. Temperatures in the range of 14’C to 18’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Should it be sunnier than I currently think likely, scattered heavy showers could develop. Fairly cloudy and around 10’C overnight.

By Saturday we see the warmer air, at least into the southern half of Britain.

Again some details uncertain – likely more cloud than sunshine overall, with some scattered heavy showers developing. But also some fairly warm sunshine, temperatures between 17’C and 20’C. Which would be the first time this year England reaches 20’C (Scotland already has!). Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps some showery rain, around 12’C.

Sunday is uncertain, but more likely on the cloudy side with some heavy showers, or some heavy showery rain. Temperatures roughly in the 13’C to 16’C kind of range.

For next week, high pressure looks like it will be close by and keep it on the drier side, with a few showers possible – however positioning of the high pressure area is uncertain. It could easily manoeuvre to allow a colder feed back once more from the north/east – or it could stay in a milder/warmish position.

Low confidence for Bank Holiday Monday, but more likely we’ll see some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon. Temperatures highly uncertain, and will depend on the position of high pressure as I mentioned, anywhere from 12’C to 18’C.

I’d suggest staying milder/warmish is a slight favourite for next week, though we could easily start cool and warm up. And I wouldn’t rule out warm warm either.

So…improvements.

But I do expect the second week of May and into the middle of May to be more unsettled.

Next forecast probably Thursday evening.

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