Tuesday 24th May 2022

A changeable start to the week but gradually improving.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph.

Tonight sees fairly clear skies for a while, though cloud thickening towards dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will be rather cloudy – some limited brightness in the morning, the odd bit of light rain. Towards lunchtime and for the first part of the afternoon, cloud will be thicker with some slightly more organised light-moderate rain, brighter to finish with sunny spells. Quite windy, reaching around 17’C after the rain clears though cool during the rain. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Thursday starts with sunny spells. It will soon cloud over and be mostly overcast, bar the odd bright/sunny spell. It should stay dry, though a smallish chance of a little light rain later in the day. Quite windy once more but warmer air aloft, we should reach 20’C or so. Cloud slowly clearing south overnight, down to around 10’C.

Friday looks a brighter day with good sunny spells, though a north-westerly breeze taking the edge off. However it will still be very pleasant, reaching around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over and to the west of the UK – with low pressure to the east. The exact positioning of the high pressure is still open to debate, and hence exact conditions for the weekend.

Saturday will see good sunny spells, though at least some cloud will bubble up – amounts uncertain but likely we see more sunshine than cloud overall. Maximum temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 20’C, depending on how close that cooler northerly to the east is to the UK. Fairly clear skies and a chilly night overnight, down to around 6’C, perhaps more cloud towards dawn.

Sunday is more uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome sees the breeze turn more north-easterly, inviting cloud and some patchy light rain – with a cool breeze and temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 16’C. The slightly less likely outcome sees something similar to Saturday, though more cloud – temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 21’C.

The start of next week is uncertain and will basically depend on exact high pressure positioning as per the forecast does for Saturday/Sunday. More likely it will be a continuation of whatever Sunday was.

The more likely outcome for the Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend remains for it to overall be warmer, drier and sunnier than normal. It remains possible that it could be unsettled and/or cooler than normal – it is still 9-12 days away which is an eternity in terms of specific details.

Arguably the Thursday and Friday are slightly more likely to be warmer, sunnier and drier than normal, than Saturday or Sunday are – with the risks of something cooler and/or showery greater, but still slightly below normal, on those two days. Only a small chance it will be hot, as things stand.

You can remain optimistic, but remember the less likely outcomes do happen also. Getting the positioning of high pressure resolved for this weekend, feels key to understanding how next weekend will progress.

Next forecast will be Friday evening.

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