Tuesday 23rd May 2023

High pressure is in control which means fine, dry and fairly warm weather. Some variation on cloud amounts though.

No photograph as Facebook still won’t let me access anything other than a low resolution copy. Meh.

The general picture sees high pressure to our west, which will slowly move east over the UK as the week goes on – low pressure to our south over Europe.

Bright with hazy sunshine during the morning, somewhat more in the way of cloud this afternoon but still spells of hazy sunshine. 18’C, maybe 19’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday looks sunnier – still some high cloud in the morning but that will clear, and likely some general cloud bubbling up at times in the afternoon, but overall a pleasant and warm day. Probably our warmest day of the year so far, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Some cloud will bubble up and likely there will be more cloud than sunshine during the afternoon – an easterly breeze will take the edge off temperatures but still reaching around 19’C. Some clear spells and some cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Friday has a risk of more cloud due to the flow coming from the North Sea – some uncertainty but more likely more cloud than sunshine overall. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 18’C more likely – I can neither rule out a fully overcast day and 12’C or a much sunnier day and 20’C. Clear skies and a little chilly overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Saturday high pressure is pretty much sat over the UK – or at least extended across the UK, which should reduce the worst annoyances of the easterly flow.

More likely we see good spells of sunshine with just a bit of cloud at times. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 17’C to 20’C. Though worth noting that subtle shifts in the high pressure positioning could still lead to something cloudier and cooler, or still sunny but warmer. Clear skies most likely overnight, down to around 6’C.

A hint of uncertainty for Sunday but the more likely outcome sees good spells of sunshine and temperatures warmer, say 19’C to 23’C. There is a small chance that a band of cloud could sink south, or a small chance that low pressure to the south moves close enough to trigger an afternoon shower – but both are around a 10% and 5% chance respectively. Most likely a very pleasant day.

Bank Holiday Monday most likely remains similar to Sunday, though the risk of some cloud spilling down from the north is now around 20%, and the shower risk from the south remains around 5’C. Otherwise plenty of warm sunshine. Around 19’C to 21’C more likely.

High pressure should remain on the scene next week, probably even the week after, though there will be a risk of cloudier and cooler weather from the east or north at times – though this should overall be outweighed by pleasantly sunny and warm days.

Towards the middle of June, thundery showers perhaps more likely to spread up from France/Spain – but bear in mind a couple of weeks ago I thought that would have been happening now, maybe this theme continues to be delayed – or just doesn’t happen. A warmer and sunnier June than normal looks more likely – drier too unless we get any notable downpours.

Enjoy! I will.

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