Tuesday 23rd January 2024

High pressure to the south having more influence than low pressure to the north…though generally fairly variable ahead.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

This morning will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – mostly light to moderate in intensity. From midday onwards, give or take, it will be mostly patchy light rain/drizzle. Windy but mild, 12’C. Some patchy light rain/drizzle for the first part of the night, but that will fade and cloud will thin. Around 8’C. Remaining windy.

Wednesday will be bright with hazy sunshine at times, especially in the morning – the afternoon tending to have a somewhat thicker layer of cloud, though still bright. Reaching around 10’C – still fairly windy in the morning but it will subside to more of a breeze. Cloud thickening overnight from the south-west as a weak weather front crosses, bringing some patchy light rain in the second half of the night. No lower than around 7’C.

By Thursday we see the Spanish high pressure system nudging up into the UK. Low pressure remains well to our north with an active jetstream.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy with occasional bits of patchy light rain – perhaps a more notable shower in the afternoon, as the winds become fairly strong once more. Mild, 12’C. Cloudy, windy with some showery rain overnight – clear skies follow for around dawn, with cooler air – down to somewhere between 3’C and 7’C, depending on the timing of when this cooler air arrives.

Friday will be sunny but cooler, around 8’C. A bit of cloud in the afternoon. Fairly clear skies overnight, probably a frost – down to around 0’C, but it will depend on much high/mid-level cloud there is.

Saturday looks breezy but dry – some uncertainty on cloud amounts/thickness – more likely along the lines of hazy sunshine, though a cloudier or sunnier day is plausible. Around 8’C. A chilly night likely – cloud probably too thicken for a frost, but not impossible.

Sunday most likely is cloudy but dry – a weather front with rain will be edging our way, but likely not for Sunday daytime. Mild, perhaps very mild, around 12’C or so – some unusually warm upper air being sourced from Africa. That weather front probably crosses overnight, bringing some bits of showery rain.

Next week looks like it will be dominated by the Spanish high pressure system, pulling up some very mild air – perhaps something cooler at times depending on how the high pressure system moves around, but mild or very mild is more likely.

Also mostly dry, though also windy at times. Assuming we tap into the Spanish warmth, which is the more likely outcome, then temperatures between 12’C and 15’C most of the time – it’s too far away to be sure on cloud/sunshine amounts, but if it’s sunny then it will feel almost spring-like. Quite remarkable for late January/early February if this comes off. If this was a month later, with a little strength in the sunshine, then we’d be talking 20’C. If it were summer, we’d be talking 35’C+.

A lower likelihood instead for next week, is for high pressure to be over the UK, or close to, but unable tap into the Spanish warmth – and hence we’d be around 7’C during the day, with overnight frosts likely.

High pressure is more likely to migrate to either over the UK or to the west of the UK after next week, so something cooler with overnight frosts – and perhaps notably colder in time, say by mid-February.

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