Tuesday 23rd April 2024

Chilly this week – milder for the weekend but with heavier showers. January continues…it was just 8’C yesterday.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph (and other people…nice to have a choice in my inbox again!).

So to begin the week, we have high pressure in control (aha) to our north-west, continuing this chilly northerly/north-easterly flow.

Cloudy for a good portion of Tuesday with occasional light rain/drizzle, mostly in the morning. Some sunny spells developing during the afternoon, still a chance of a shower, and reaching 11’C, maybe 12’C in a fairly light northerly (ish) breeze. A mixture of clear spells and cloudy spells overnight, cloudy spells perhaps with a touch of drizzle. Down to around 3’C.

Plenty of cloud around on Wednesday once more, some sunny spells but generally far outweighed by cloud. One or two scattered showers, they should be fairly light if you catch one. Chilly in the northerly breeze, 11’C. Some clear spells overnight, but also a level of high cloud developing – down to around 1’C with a chance of a frost, especially in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts with some spells of hazy sunshine, but also some areas of cloud. Generally cloud amounts increasing from mid-morning onwards, though still some sunny spells. A few scattered showers too – a bit of uncertainty on this aspect, but if you catch one (or more) then they could be quite hefty. Temperatures perhaps up a tad, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Showers still possible in the evening but more likely dry overnight, with some cloud around but on the chilly side once more.

Things start to change on Friday as low pressure slips down from the north-west towards north Spain/Portugal – before spinning around and heading to us on the weekend.

Details pretty sketchy for Friday as it will depend on how much influence the low pressure to our west can have from that distance, and how much cloud there was overnight. I’d suggest some on the cloudier side of the spectrum is more likely, with a scattering of showers, and temperatures around 12’C but very give and take on everything here!

Some uncertainty for the weekend on details too. Low pressure will certainly be in charge, centred over the UK or just to the south – and there will be rain and heavy showers at times.

So the more likely outcome for Saturday, at around an 80% chance, is that spells of rain, perhaps heavy, move up from the south, along with milder air too – temperatures more likely in the 12’C to 14’C range.

There is a chance instead, say around 20%, that low pressure is still a bit to our south, and we get some sunny spells and some warmth, say 18’C but still with a chance of showers.

Sunday low pressure will still be around somewhere, so further rain/showers should be expected at some point, if not all day, perhaps quite windy – temperatures could be anywhere from 10’C to 18’C – and (like rain distribution) will depend on where low pressure situates itself.

For next week, the low pressure likely hangs around for Monday with further showers but milder/quite warm in any sunshine – and then is joined by another low pressure from the north-west on Tuesday to bring more showers for the middle of the week.

Surprisingly, there is a possible route to warmth because of this low pressure – slow-moving low pressure systems over the south of the UK/France will pump up much warmer air into central Europe, and that could then make its way west later next week.

It would be an unusual way to get to warmth, but I’ve seen it before and models are flagging it as a possible outcome. I wouldn’t get too excited yet…it’s 10 days away and an unusual pattern.

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