Tuesday 22nd August 2023

Some warmth, then some showers with a fair dollop of uncertainty too.

Thanks to Melanie for the photograph.

The general picture for Tuesday sees high pressure to our south, low pressure to our north – the latter will try to sink south later in the week, though it won’t be straight-forward.

For Tuesday, early cloud will gradually break up to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Reaching close to 25’C, with a little bit of a breeze. Quite a lot of high-level cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday starts bright with sunny spells, perhaps hazy though. Generally it looks a mostly sunny and warm day, some high/mid-level cloud making it hazy at times, and more in the way of cloud later in the day. Very warm, around 25’C. Cloudy at times overnight, particularly in the evening and towards dawn – a small chance of a shower by dawn too. A warm night, no lower than around 17’C.

Thursday is uncertain – a heat low over France will be pushing north-east, stopping the low to our north sinking south (the previous expectation for Thursday), but also brings a risk of some heavy, showery rain pushing into the south of England. Details are uncertain and likely will be until the night before – so if you have plans for Thursday that require no rain, then you’ll have to wait! Around a 50/50 chance as to whether we see heavy, showery rain, or spells of hazy sunshine. Around 20’C if the former, around 25’C if the latter. Likely on the warm side overnight – the risk of heavy, showery rain is still there, say a 30% chance.

On Friday, we then see the low pressure to our north gradually move south-east, and bring something less warm.

It’s plausible, though unlikely, that there is still a hangover of cloud and showery rain from the night before – a 10% chance tops. Otherwise we are looking at sunny spells, with quite a lot of cloud bubbling up – an afternoon shower cannot be ruled out. Less warm, 21’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and showers. There should be reasonable amounts of sunshine, but around a 70% chance of catching at least a couple of showers, which could be heavy with a small chance of thunder. Around 20’C in a northerly breeze. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday is a bit uncertain again – broadly I think it will balance out into a bit of a nothing day – quite a bit of cloud, some sunshine, a chance of a shower – though the uncertain bit is that there may be a weather front mixed in bringing some more general cloud and patchy rain at some point. Reaching around 20’C and breezy.

Bank Holiday Monday is uncertain – it could be cloudy with some rain, it could be warm with sunny spells – or some blend in between. I neither expect glorious or a washout…something kind of middling.

Next weekend looks fairly unsettled with showers at times, and probably a low pressure bringing general wind/rain on one day.

However, plenty of uncertainty as there will likely be ex-hurricanes/tropical storms in the Atlantic, how they behave can affect our weather downstream, so, as usual for this time of year, conditions in September are subject to more uncertainty than at other times of the year.

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