A short update this week I’m afraid, partly because there is a huge amount of uncertainty from Christmas Day onwards, but also because I’ve finally succumbed to covid – yeah, great timing.
So I don’t have much energy. No sympathy required as many people have had it far worse, I trust that you wish me well as I do all of you – no doubt some of you have Christmas plans delayed, or worse.
Anyway, it will be brief.
Frosty tonight, down to around -2’C.
Hazy sunshine on Wednesday, cloud gradually thickening, cold, 5’C. A little showery rain in the evening.
Thursday cloudy, milder, some light rain at times, 10’C by the evening. Fog possible overnight.
Christmas Eve, mild, cloudy, some rain late afternoon/early evening, 10’C.
Christmas Day is where the fun, and the uncertainty starts. Cold air to the north is trying to push down, at the same time milder air, with weather fronts is trying to fully take control.
It looks like cold air will win out but how quickly (and then how long for) is the question.
Christmas Day does look like it will probably be wet, with some outbreaks of heavy rain. I’d suggest that there remains a 15% chance that by the evening the cold air could have enough influence to turn the rain to snow, but that does mean an 85% chance that it will stay as rain – it is borderline, but temperatures dropping only to around 4’C, unlikely to be sufficient for snow.
Boxing Day and Monday will remain on the cold side. Some rain probable on Boxing Day, with around a 25% chance of at least some sleet or snow. Monday looks drier.
Then probably cold and dry with overnight frosts is the theme for at least a couple of days, with unsettled and milder conditions for a short spell after (snow to rain event at first very possible), though timing uncertain, perhaps starting before NYE, perhaps shortly after.
However, I stress all of this, from Christmas Day onwards is subject to a high degree of uncertainty – there is a small chance of cold air not winning out on Christmas, and it just being mild and wet for a few days, likewise cold air may dig in further, and enhance the chance of heavy snow.
Hopefully I’ll be back to normal by Thursday evening and can give a better forecast…and hopefully things are clearer then too.