Tuesday 20th February 2024

The mild slowly relenting to something colder – and becoming unsettled too.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Today sees plenty of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells, particularly through the lunchtime period/early afternoon. Still mild, quite breezy too, 12’C. The evening sees some light, patchy rain spread down from the north-west – with more showery rain pushing in from the west later in the night. Down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees the jetstream push further south – and the Spanish high pressure system finally squeeze west – which will allow something colder to reach us in turn.

Wednesday morning into lunchtime, perhaps early afternoon, will be wet with showery rain – fairly strong winds too. Brighter skies will follow with hazy sunshine. Still mild, 12’C, maybe 13’C. A few bits of showery rain overnight, generally fairly cloudy, down to around 9’C.

Thursday sees heavy/very heavy pulses of rain spread east – sometimes dry and bright, but sometimes pouring down. Breezy – mild in the morning, up to around 12’C, but colder once the heaviest pulses of rain clear, around 6’C – once the colder air arrives, then there will be more sunshine but still some heavy showers possible. Clear spells overnight, a stray shower possible, down to around 3’C.

By Friday we are in this classic Polar Maritime flow.

Sunny spells and showers, perhaps heavy with thunder possible, some interesting cloudscapes (especially now I live in a 17th floor flat!) – and an outside chance of something wintry mixed in, be it hail, sleet or wet snow but mostly everything that falls will be rain. Reaching around 7’C, and windy. Clear spells overnight – a chance of mist/fog forming, and a frost probable for most, down to around 0’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and a few scattered heavy showers – less around than on Friday. Reaching around 8’C. Mist/fog possible overnight, frost probable but will depend on cloud amounts which are uncertain – temperatures somewhere between -2’C and 3’C.

Low pressure still around on Sunday. Some uncertainty on details, but broadly some cloud, some sunny spells and some scattered showers – around 8’C.

Next week likely starts fairly similar – some sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, some showers around and generally on the chilly side, though nothing unusual for the time of year, say between 6’C and 8’C. Overnight frosts possible.

More likely as the week goes on we go back into something more unsettled, with strong winds and heavy rain – though not especially high confidence.

Generally March looks like seeing the jetstream further south than normal, so a wetter than normal month with generally average temperatures looks a fair bet.

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