Tuesday 1st August 2023

An unsettled week ahead, with the wind turning to the cooler north. How delightful.

There might be something drier next week…more on that later.

Thanks to Kate for the suitable photograph.

Today isn’t too bad, some sunny spells to start the day though lots of cloud will bubble up from mid/late morning onwards, to leave a bright but fairly cloudy day with a bit of sunshine. A small chance of a shower, it should be fairly innocuous if you do catch one. 22’C. Showery rain spreading across late evening onwards, some heavy/very heavy bursts possible – clearing before dawn. No lower than 14’C.

So the general picture for Wednesday sees our next low pressure system arriving.

Some sunny spells around to start the day, but showers will push east quickly during the morning, likely heavy at times, possibly merging into a longer spell of rain. Thunder possible. Quite windy, we should just about reach 20’C during sunnier moments. Showers mostly fading in the evening, fairly cloudy overnight though some clear spells possible, and down to around 14’C.

Thursday sees low pressure now to our east with a northerly wind – though not yet a particularly cool source. Quite a bit of cloud around, but there will be some sunny spells at times, the odd scattered shower – say a 40% chance of catching one or two, perhaps slightly more likely in the evening. Around 21’C and breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday continues with the northerly flow, with plenty of cloud, especially in the first half of the day. Heavy showers developing more notably over the eastern half of the UK, though we are fairly borderline between missing them, or catching multiple heavy showers – perhaps very heavy and/or thundery. Maybe just slightly more in the camp of staying dry – but a close call between two very different types of day. Reaching around 19’C, maybe 20’C. Clear skies overnight and a chilly night for the time of year – perhaps down to 8’C.

Saturday is uncertain – the models are struggling with how the next low pressure develops.

I think the more likely outcome is that it heads south-east into France – though it may be far enough north to bring us cloud and patchy rain, or it may be far enough into France that we get sunshine and showers.

However, there remains a chance that it develops into quite a notable system and doesn’t head into France – which would bring a wet and windy day.

No solution is a warm one, temperatures somewhere between 12’C (if it rains all day) and 18’C.

Fairly clear skies probable overnight, and chilly, down to around 8’C.

Sunday’s details are fairly sketchy so far, but broadly sunny spells, cloudy spells with a chance of showers. Reaching around 19’C, maybe 20’C.

Showers possible on Monday but more likely something in the way of sunshine as high pressure moves in from the west. Yes, high pressure!

It’s still 7 days away but it seems by around next Tuesday/Wednesday, the more likely outcome is that high pressure will be over the UK, allowing at least a short spell of dry and settled weather – hopefully sunny and perhaps warm.

It’s worth bearing in mind that previously signals of a move to something settled haven’t come to pass – I expected the second half of July to be hotter – didn’t happen. There were signals (albeit weaker) that there could be an improvement at the end of July – hasn’t happened.

But this is moving out of signals range into model’s semi-reliable range, with all major models broadly agreeing. It could still not happen, so don’t bank on it – and I don’t think it will be a return to the glorious conditions of June More a rebalancing, so still some showery days, but more in the way of dry, sunny days – and perhaps even a few very warm/hot days.

We shall see – but certainly signs of an improvement for those looking for some summer in the final summer month.

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