Tuesday 19th April 2022

The bank holiday is over so now the good weather has ended? Feels like the wrong way around, but something cloudier and cooler for this week – though nothing especially bad.

The set-up for this week sees an easterly – not too dissimilar a pattern to The Beast From The East 4 years ago, but of course, it is the latter part of April now and easterly winds don’t often mean cold by now. And this time isn’t cold either – though cooler than it has been.

Of course, I mentioned that we had a strong final warming of the stratosphere a month or so ago, and just like the sudden stratospheric warming event of 2018 that led to The Beast From The East, the strong final warming is bringing a higher than normal chance of northerlies and easterlies – we had the northerly a couple of weeks back, now we have the easterly.

Further northerly/easterly based weather will be more likely than normal over the next 2-4 weeks.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

This evening and tonight will be fairly cloudy, a few clearish spells, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy though bright, with hazy sunshine. Gradually and especially during the afternoon, sunshine amounts will increase to bring a pleasant day, reaching around 18’C – though the easterly wind making it feel a little less warm. Clear skies at first overnight though high cloud spreading up from the south from around midnight, down to around 6’C.

For Thursday we have high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, with a notably easterly wind.

A reasonable day again, the morning seeing high/medium level cloud at times but bright with hazy sunshine. Some thicker cloud bubbling up in places around lunchtime – though hit and miss. Then increasing sunshine during the afternoon, though hazy at times. Reaching around 16’C, maybe 17’C, though a notable easterly wind taking the edge off. Variable amounts of cloud at first overnight, generally thicker cloud later, down to around 7’C.

Friday looks cloudier as the easterly digs in. A bit of uncertainty but more likely rather cloudy with some occasional light rain – though perhaps just cloudy at times with some sunny spells and showers instead. The easterly wind still notable and temperatures down to around 13’C, maybe 14’C. Likely at least fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday is probably still at least quite cloudy, but I’ve more hope for at least some hazy sunshine and temperatures a bit warmer, say 15’C or 16’C, maybe a tad more – depending on sunshine amounts. The easterly breeze remaining and a heavy shower possibly drifting up from the south. Fairly cloudy overnight – the shower chance remaining as low pressure to our south edges a bit closer.

Sunday broadly stays within the same parameters, fairly cloudy, some sunshine albeit possibly hazy and a chance of a shower or two – though I’m purposefully hazy on details. The notably easterly wind remaining, and likely a tad cooler than Saturday, say 14’C or 15’C.

The more likely option for next week, at least the first 2-3 days is a cooler flow, either northerly or north-easterly, rather cloudy with some showers – temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 15’C. Overnight frosts possible.

How it progresses towards that weekend (which is also a bank holiday) is uncertain – though it often is 10 days away. It may remain cool, it may become very warm – or it could be unsettled. Perhaps the warm/very warm solution is the very slight favourite.

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