Tuesday 17th October 2023

Becoming milder, but wetter.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Today will be a day of hazy sunshine – the cloud gradually thickening during the day, broadly speaking, though with somewhat varying thickness and hence amounts of hazy sunshine. Milder, we should squeeze 15’C, as we pick up a flow from Spain. Becoming breezy too. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C with a little patchy rain possible before dawn.

By Wednesday we see low pressure nudging in from the south-west.

Wednesday will generally be cloudy, the odd spot of patchy rain possible in the morning, though in the afternoon the rain will gather and spread north – some heavy bursts mixed in. This continuing until early/mid-evening. 16’C but windy, some fairly strong gusts at times. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower possible, no lower than around 13’C, the wind easing somewhat.

Thursday morning starts with an area of showers moving north, fairly much first thing. This sets the theme for the day – often cloudy, sometimes raining – though the distribution of showers remains a little uncertain, you may well get frequent heavy showers, almost showery rain, or maybe just a few showers. Feeling somewhat warmer, 17’C or so. Further showers or showery rain possible overnight, though some uncertainty over where the focus will be. No lower than around 12’C.

Things get interesting on Friday, as high pressure re-establishes itself over Scandinavia, and stops our low pressure (Storm Babet) from going anywhere. If it was winter, such a set-up could lead to a major snowfall (though such things are never so straight-forward!).

Thankfully its October, so I don’t need to worry about “will it snow”, but there is uncertainty over both temperatures and rainfall. Generally it will be cloudy, and there will be at least some showery rain – perhaps persistent general rain. More likely we are still in the warmer air, reaching around 17’C – but its a fairly close call and will depend on the shape of the high pressure system over Scandinavia – it could be cooler and around 11’C instead. Roughly 70/30 split in terms of likelihood.

Showery rain still possible overnight, though less likely than during the day. Down to around 10’C with an easterly flow developing.

Not especially high confidence for Saturday, but more likely it is a mostly cloudy day, feeling cool in an easterly wind, perhaps some light showers. Temperatures between 10’C and 12’C. Probably too cloudy for a frost, but a chilly night likely.

Low confidence for Sunday, perhaps sunny spells and the odd shower, with temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 15’C – too much to be determined before then to have much confidence on details.

A more classic autumnal spell seems like the more likely way to go for next week and perhaps into early November – with spells of wind and rain, interspersed with fine days with the odd shower, being the most likely theme, and generally on the mild side.

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