Tuesday 15th August 2023

Something much closer to summer in the forecast, even if low pressure will be close by.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Tuesday starts with sunny spells. Quite a bit of fair-weather cloud will bubble up during the morning – likely more cloud than sun roughly over the lunchtime period, with more sunshine later in the day. A small chance of a fairly light shower. Warm, 23’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees a weak ridge of high pressure over the UK.

Sunny spells for Wednesday, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up and a small chance of a light/moderate shower, but otherwise a pleasant day and very warm – reaching around 25’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunny spells again for Thursday, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up and perhaps a layer of high/mid-level cloud in the afternoon for a time, making things hazier. Very warm, we should reach around 25’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, with a chance of some heavy showers towards dawn, perhaps thundery, and a warm night – no lower than 17’C.

By Friday the general picture sees high pressure to our north-east, and a deepening area of low pressure to our west – though unlike recently, the low pressure isn’t going to cross the UK – it will head north instead.

So Friday likely starts with heavy showers, perhaps very heavy and thundery – though also I stress a bit of uncertainty in how widespread the showers are – and the initial showers possibly fade away. A drier gap, perhaps some sunshine and if so, then 28’C is possible, but without any sunshine then closer to 23’C – though feeling warm and humid. Then later in the day, anyway from late afternoon to late evening, a further spell of heavy/very heavy rain develops and spreads north-east – a chance of some really notable downpours, and a small chance of thunderstorms embedded. I stress details on timing and intensity are uncertain at this stage, and will be until the day before. A warm night once the rain clears, down to around 16’C or so.

Saturday sees sunny spells. Seriously. On a Saturday. Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a shower and it will be very warm – somewhere between 24’C and 26’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though a chance of some mist and fog in more sheltered spots, down to around 14’C.

Sunday sees high pressure build from the south – some sunny spells, some cloud – I cannot rule out a shower but otherwise more pleasant weather. Very warm, somewhere between 24’C and 27’C. Down to around 14’C overnight – a small chance of mist/fog in more sheltered spots.

The more likely outcome for Monday looks sunny and quite possibly on the hot side, temperatures somewhere between 24’C and 30’C. An outside chance of thundery rain or thunderstorms instead.

Tuesday becomes more uncertain – the chance of thundery rain or thunderstorms is higher, perhaps we may tap into some continental heat to bring a proper hot day – or maybe the Atlantic pushes the hot air east. Quite uncertain.

Given that I’ve got to the “well it could be anything” stage, I’ll stop here.

Generally for next week, once the early heat clears then I still expect it to be broadly warm/very warm, and changeable – though dry days should outnumber wet/showery days.

Low confidence for the bank holiday weekend – I’m marginally more hopefully for drier and warmer weather at the beginning of the weekend than the end, as there is a signal for a more unsettled spell roughly at the end of August/beginning of September.

Have a good week.

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