Tuesday 13th June 2023

Settling down and staying hot, after an eventful few days…can confirm my jealousy from my location in NW London as I missed most of the fun…though did see some lightning in the distance yesterday.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure loosely in control – low pressure far to our west towards North America, though it is slowly heading our way.

Today sees long spells of sunshine, little fair-weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with just a very small chance of a non-heavy shower. Hot, 28’C, maybe 29’C in an easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a fresher night, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair-weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon, and reaching 28’C, maybe 29’C in an easterly breeze. A bit of high-level cloud overnight but otherwise clear, down to around 13’C.

Thursday is mostly sunny but there will be some high cloud in the morning, perhaps making it a tad hazy, and a bit more fair-weather cloud in general – a very small chance of an afternoon shower, say 5% chance. Still hot, around 28’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday sees plenty more sunshine, though a bit more in the way of fair-weather cloud in the afternoon bubbling up, with a 5% chance of a shower – they should be further west than us. Still quite hot, 26’C, maybe 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Saturday that low pressure I mentioned is closer – still some uncertainty as to whether it actually ever gets to the UK, it could very easily stall to our west, or it could head south to France/Spain – though as it stands the more likely outcome is it does bring some rain/showers at some point.

Exact conditions for Saturday will depend on exactly where the low pressure is, but most likely it will remain hot and sunny, though perhaps somewhat more on the hazy side. Reaching around 27’C.

Sunday is uncertain. The low pressure should be closer so the chance of some rain increases – but also the chance of it being hotter increases too. So roughly a 50/50 split between either hot and sunny (well hazy sunshine probably) or very warm, humid and wet, possibly very wet.

Until I get a handle on what the low pressure is going to do, there is no point in attempting details for next week – but overall I’d expect more very warm/hot weather, but also more in the way of showers, possible thundery, probably heavy – and less in the way of sunshine, though still reasonable amounts.

Should the low pressure stall to our west, we may find a brief short very hot spell early next week, say up to 35’C. Not especially likely, but around a 20% chance.

Next forecast should be on Friday morning.

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