Tuesday 12th September 2023

More warmth and sunshine to come, but some cloud and showers in the mix too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy, the odd scattered shower around – and a bit of brightness. Perhaps more in the way of sunny spells this afternoon, but still plenty of cloud, and now a scattering of heavy showers, thunder possible. Warm and humid, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Showers fading in the evening, then an area of cloud slowly sinks south, perhaps a spot of light rain at times, temperatures around 14’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy. Gradually the sun will break through, and it will become mostly sunny by around lunchtime, give or take. Fair-weather cloud bubbling up during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower but most places dry. Fresher, 20’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

There’s not a lot happening in the general North Atlantic/Europe area in terms of forcing on our weather – though weather fronts will try to push down from the north-west on Thursday, unsuccessfully.

Generally Thursday sees hazy sunshine, quite a lot of high cloud and fair-weather cloud, but it will be warm, if not very warm and a tad humid once more. Around 23’C, maybe 24’C. The weather front to our north heads further north overnight, we’ll remain with high cloud and temperatures down to around 13’C – a chance of mist/fog/low cloud by dawn.

Friday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud clear fairly quickly, leaving good spells of sunshine, albeit somewhat hazy at times. Most likely quite hot once more, say in the range of 25’C to 27’C – however it does depend on how close the weather front is, and hence how much high cloud there is – certainly plausible that we are closer to the 22’C to 24’C range. A fairly warm night – a chance of some heavy showers breaking out.

And then time for some fun and games.

What looks likely to happen is an elongated area of low pressure develops, stretching from Portugal, through France, and into the UK – tapping into the warmth and humidity.

This leaves conditions highly uncertain for the weekend, but the more likely outcome is for it to be quite hot, with thundery downpours – some sunny spells at times. More likely temperatures broadly in the range of 25’C to 29’C and notably humid. A lower chance that instead we are stuck under general cloud and rain, with temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 22’C. A warm night likely, say around 18’C, with further heavy, showery rain very possible.

Sunday most likely is in the same vein – very warm, humid, some sunny spells possible but more likely some heavy, thundery downpours – perhaps torrential, a small chance of large hail and frequent lightning.

It should be fresher by Monday – and next week most likely reverts to a westerly theme, with wind, rain and showers. But likely warmer than normal!

Perhaps warmer and drier towards the end of September once more. Unusually warmer? We’ll see. I wonder if we’ll end up recording the warmest ever September – in the same year that we recorded the warmest ever June.

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