Tuesday 12th March 2024

Lots of cloud, but becoming much milder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the cloudy photograph. I actually have quite a few photographs in my Inbox at the moment – let’s hope for some sunshine so I can use the rest!

Today will be cloudy and wet. The rain heavier and more persistent this morning, becoming lighter and patchier this afternoon. Breezy and around 12’C. Still a few patches of light rain this evening, but it will become dry, if remaining cloudy. Down to around 10’C.

The general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure to our north-west, and high pressure once more building over Spain, pumping up warmth – a similar pattern as to what gave us the record-warm (and wet) February.

Cloudy is the theme, perhaps a little patchy light rain at times – though some limited brightness will be possible, especially in the afternoon. Mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Breezy too. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday again sees plenty of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells too. Later in the afternoon, a weather front will bring some showers – a bit of uncertainty on the timing, more likely late afternoon but perhaps earlier, or perhaps not until evening. Reaching 15’C, perhaps a bit more if the showers can hold off until later…I wouldn’t rule out a 17’C. Ooh! Remaining breezy too. Scattered showers in the evening and overnight, possibly on the heavy side, no lower than around 10’C.

Friday sees plenty more cloud, a bit of sunshine at times, and quite a few showers – likely heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Breezy and mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Clear skies and a chilly night likely, down to around 3’C – perhaps a touch of frost by dawn.

Details a bit uncertain for the weekend, high pressure trying to poke its nose in from the south, but weather fronts continue to march across too.

Broadly speaking, the more likely outcome for Saturday sees bright and dry weather in the morning, with cloud thickening and some rain later. Perhaps we can squeeze out something a bit more spring-like, but also perhaps we don’t get the bright and dry morning. The theme is there, but the timing is in question as it stands. In the range of 12’C to 15’C.

Sunday is again somewhat uncertain, but more likely we’ll be between weather systems, so broadly, some sunshine, some cloud and temperatures around 15’C, give or take. Not bad really, though I stress not especially high confidence.

Next week likely starts on the mild/quite warm side, though positioning of weather fronts uncertain – and hence uncertain as to cloud amounts/rain timing, etc. Temperatures more likely to head back down to normal, or even on the chilly side as the week goes on, and generally remaining changeable.

In the latter part of the month, both colder than average, and warmer than average conditions are more likely than normal. The former due to the sudden stratospheric warming event, the latter due to the strength (again) of the Spanish high pressure. Don’t be surprised to see a flip from one to the other.

April is still looking mixed, some colder spells still possible at the beginning, some warmer spells at the end.

Signals for May have trended to warmer and drier than normal, signals for June also remain this way. There should be some very nice weather ahead!

Interestingly I saw a paper published that seemed to argue that a late season sudden stratospheric warming event (which we’ve had) means a warmer and drier summer is more likely – which is something I’ve believed for a few years, and now maybe there is scientific evidence.

I haven’t read the paper (a bit too heavy going for me), so I may be paraphrasing incorrectly, hopefully I got the gist. Next forecast should be Friday morning.

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