Tuesday 11th May 2021

Showery is the theme.

We’ve lost the cool Arctic air, we’ve lost the frost risk too. But we’ve gained a low pressure trough that will set up close to Ireland, bringing a showery flow – occasionally it will move through the UK…and be replaced by another.

So it will feel quite warm when sunny but you’ll always need an umbrella to hand.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tuesday morning starts rather cloudy with some showers, possibly heavy. The afternoon looks brighter with some sunny spells and only a very small chance of a shower – feeling quite warm at around 16’C. A small chance of a heavy shower in the evening, otherwise dry overnight with variable cloud, and down to around 7’C.

For Wednesday we still have the low pressure trough just to our west.

Starting with sunny spells, scattered showers will develop. Less showers than recent days so a chance of missing them and staying dry, but they could still be quite heavy. Sunshine becoming hazier as the afternoon goes on, and quite warm at around 17’C. Overnight looks mostly cloudy – an area of rain will be heading this way from the south-west as the trough starts to move east but there is a bit of uncertainty as to how it will track – I’d suggest either anything from a bit of showery rain, to several hours of persistent rain. Around 8’C.

Thursday is a bit uncertain due to the position of the overnight rain and associated weather front. It does look like either limited sunshine and heavy showers, or cloudier with more general showery rain. A rumble of thunder possible, and temperatures around 15’C, a tad less if cloudier. Further showers possible, if not probable, overnight. Around 8’C.

For Friday the low pressure trough will be more over France and Belgium – though its replacement will be heading in from the Atlantic.

Exact details have a bit of uncertainty, but broadly we are looking at limited amounts of sunshine and fairly widespread heavy, possibly thundery showers. Certainly possible for a bit more sunshine and less showers than this, but also possible for something cloudier with general showery rain. Temperatures roughly around 15’C – but could easily be 2-3’C either way. Showers slowly fading overnight – possibly some general rain arriving from the west later in the night, though timing uncertain.

Saturday sees the replacement low pressure trough arrive to the west of Ireland. This likely brings a spell of general rain some point late Friday night or during the first part of Saturday – followed by sunny spells and heavy showers, thunder possible. Quite warm in the limited sunshine between the showers, around 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 8’C.

Sunday looks like another day of sunshine and heavy showers. A bit more sunshine than recent days, but showers probably heavy or very heavy, and a moderate chance of some thunder too – perhaps hail. Quite warm in the limited sunshine, but I can see my outdoor roast dinner getting rather soggy. Around 16’C.

Believe it or not, the indoor re-opening of pubs and restaurants will not actually see an immediate improvement in the weather. Further heavy showers expected on Monday.

Likely still showery on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a more northerly (ish) flow as the low pressure trough moves east so feeling cooler again.

There is a window of opportunity for a short dry and warm spell either late next week or into the weekend – but given the general background signals for more unsettled conditions, this is a moderate chance at best.

Fairly likely that it remains changeable through to the end of May – further showers likely but some drier, sunnier and warmer days should be in the mix too.

I remain more hopeful for warm/hot and sunny weather in June, but the strong signal has weakened a bit – and there was a fairly strong signal that May would be warm and sunny until a few weeks ago, so I’m a tad nervous about it!

And I remain expectant of a mixed July and August. Oh well, at least we can go on holiday to the South Sandwich Islands.

Next full forecast will probably be on Friday.

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