There were two questions regarding thunderstorms today.
- Would they initiate?
- Where will they initiate?
I cannot answer number 2 – this will be a nowcasting thing – if you see clouds developing over you or just to your south/south-east, and they will develop fairly explosively I’d suggest, then you will likely catch a thunderstorm.
The first question, I do now think they will initiate. Impossible to be certain, but I think we’ve reached a good temperature profile considering current requirements, there seems to be some cumulus bubbling up, I’ve heard reports of unstable skies close to the south coast and there appears to be some cloud bubbling up to our south on the satellite – though I cannot ascertain whether this is potential future thunderstorm cloud!
So I think they’ll be triggered somewhere over the south/south-east this afternoon, perhaps into early evening. Will your area get one? I’m still around a 20% chance, maybe 30% chance at a push.
Catch one and largish hail and torrential downpours with localised flooding are the main risks, with fairly frequent lightning possible.