Tuesday 10th October 2023

The warm air mass remains, but with rain in the mix too. Then much cooler by Saturday – jumpers out, heating on.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Today is another day with long spells of warm sunshine, albeit hazy at times with a fair amount of high-level cloud. Reaching around 22’C in a westerly breeze. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight, some patchy mist/fog possible – most places no lower than 15’C so a mild night.

By Wednesday we see the warm upper air ebbing away, colder air is trying to push down from the north, but low pressure is also edging in from the west.

Early mist/fog/low cloud patches will lift to hazy sunshine, though the cloud will gradually thicken during the day as a weather front very slowly edges south. 20’C should be reached, maybe a shade more. Uncertain as to when the rain arrives, likely by the evening we are seeing some showery rain – some quite heavy, some light – but maybe also some patchy rain during the afternoon. Further showery rain overnight, though trending generally drier as the night goes on, down to around 11’C.

For Thursday, we will still be in the warmer air mass, but it will be cloudy so temperatures restricted to around 16’C, give or take. Some early showery bits of rain possible, the odd bit of light rain possible in the afternoon too but otherwise mostly dry and mostly cloudy. Rain spreading north-east in the evening and overnight, heavy at times and some fairly strong winds. Very mild, 17’C.

Friday is a little complex, as we likely have two, maybe three distinct weather fronts. The one to the south will involve some heavy/very heavy rain – but exactly where it will be is uncertain, though I’d favour that we do get at least some heavy/very heavy rain at times in the morning. Once it clears there should be some hazy sunshine, and temperatures could easily reach 21’C, assuming so. Then the next weather front sinks south later in the day, the rain more patchy though there is potential for a spell of heavy rain into the evening – all highly uncertain.

However, if the southern weather front is further south, we may instead find the second weather front clearing through in the morning/afternoon, and cooler air spreading south earlier.

As I said, a complex picture and exact details on timing of rain bands, will need a couple more days.

Overnight sees clear skies and a chilly northerly wind, down to around 6’C.

So, from much warmer than normal to a bit colder than normal, as a northerly flow sets in.

Saturday will be reasonably sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a fairly innocuous shower. But in a northerly breeze, temperatures around 13’C. Down to around 3’C overnight – a touch of frost in places.

Sunday looks fairly sunny, some cloud around – but just 10’C, maybe 11’C at a push. Hmmm. Where summer gone? Down to around 0’C overnight, a frost for most.

Next week starts dry with sunny spells, but also on the chilly side for the time of year.

Uncertain where we go later in the week – I’d slightly fancy rain pushing in from the west for a fairly short unsettled spell, but it is uncertain. There is also a fairly strong signal for high pressure to build over Scandinavia, which would mean a chilly easterly is more likely later in the month.

Goodbye warmth, for now.

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