Thursday 9th February 2023

Milder but cloudier.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Clear spells tonight though some high cloud, frosty, widely down to around -3’C – a bit lower in a few spots.

High pressure remains in control for Friday, centred not far to our south-west.

Bright with hazy sunshine for most of the day, some thicker cloud possible at times. 9’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, mist/fog possible, down to around 4’C.

Saturday looks mostly cloudy with a little brightness possible later in the afternoon. 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist/fog possible, down to around 3’C – give or take.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy, particularly in the morning but some bright spells will be possible at times. 10’C or so. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

By Monday the high pressure is squeezing east, and this will give us a better chance of some sunny spells – though some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Around 11’C with a breeze. Fog/frost possible overnight – down to around 1’C.

Tuesday should be sunny after any early fog clears. Reaching around 12’C or so – almost kind of pleasant, for February anyway. Fog/frost possible overnight, down to around 1’C.

Wednesday probably remains sunny, maybe hazy, once any early fog clears. Again reaching around 12’C – though a bit of uncertainty with a weak weather front trying to push in from the west.

That weak weather front probably crossing Wednesday night or Thursday, bringing more in the way of cloud and perhaps some light rain.

Friday and into next weekend most likely high pressure re-establishes once more, continuing the dry weather – almost certainly in the mild zone, say 10’C to 13’C. Too far away to judge on cloud amounts, and also overnight fog/frost chances.

The possibility of very mild that I mentioned last time, now seems unlikely, but maybe a 10-20% chance.

Looking further ahead, a sudden stratospheric warming event now looks probable, perhaps likely, say an 80-90% chance. Such events can lead to significant cold spells, ie March 2013 or 2018’s Beast From The East. However they don’t guarantee it.

You should scrap anything I’ve previously said about expecting warmth in March.

The SSW is still a week away, and impacts in the troposphere normally take around 2-4 weeks to take effect.

I’d suggest cold easterly flows more likely than not during much of March and April – but all this is still tentative. The SSW needs to happen first, then we need to see what happened to the stratospheric vortex, and then we can have a better idea of whether we’ll have notable cold/snow here.

As always, I recommend ignoring the clickbait sensationalists in the media – you will see a lot of hype, if you haven’t already.

Also worth noting, the MJO (a different phenomenon) may also increase the chance of cold spells before the end of February. Interesting times ahead…cannot say I am keen on a cold spring, but weather will do what it will do.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *